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Trump is thinking outside the Ukrainian box

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Posted By: Big Bopper, 2/22/2025 11:00:38 AM

Inside the box, and the Beltway, the thinking all along has been that we must draw a line at Ukraine, else Putin and the barbarians will soon be on the steps of Warsaw and then Berlin and Paris. Besides, Russian aggression and aggressors are morally bad. We owe it to posterity and civilization not to crumble before them. Those are valid points. On the other hand: We are where we are. Where we are, is Vladimir Putin make some understandable miscalculations. One, he miscalculated America’s willingness to support foreign countries. After all, he had witnessed Joe Biden’s Afghanistan surrender debacle.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: earlybird 2/22/2025 11:24:38 AM (No. 1901637)
This may be the best, most well-reasoned article on this subject that I have read anywhere. Beaton makes a very good case for how this could end now.
10 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Quigley 2/22/2025 11:27:56 AM (No. 1901638)
For me the analysis is Ukraine's non neutrality was a redline for Putin, and when Airhead Harris babbled that "Ukraine can join NATO if it wants to, Russia can't tell it what to do," Putin knew the Bidet regime was clown monkeys with hand grenades. To think that Putin could think he could roll over Western Europe in his lifetime is laughable. He undoubtedly believed that the US could very probably send lots of money to Ukraine initially, but that eventually the money would dry up and he would win the war of attrition. If he believes that Ukraine non neutrality is an existential threat, then all that makes sense. The Bidet Administration caused this war with its sophomoric handling of events. They were deadly unserious people.
13 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: DVC 2/22/2025 11:34:00 AM (No. 1901641)
Beaton gets a lot of this right, but I don't think his "option 3" which is nukes is on the list at all. And I do think that if Putin opens the nuclear Pandora's box, he will NOT receive a full on nuke strike back, but a measured nuclear response, probably in the form of an important military base, not too close to a big city, hit with a single nuke, to put a period to the situation. And that would be both necessary, and sufficient to end it. A 'bishop exchange' in chess terms. Beaton is a city ass to call the farmland "cheap land" because it "isn"t Mar-a-lago". In the REAL world, farmland like Ukraine has is rare over the whole planet and EXTREMELY valuable for providing food for the people who own it. Russia, as vast as it is, and most Americans have zero grasp that Russian land area is by far the largest country in the world, but the overwhelming majority of it is essentially worthless taiga, a wet, poor soil subarctic forest, or vast, agriculturally worthless deserts. That prime, best in the world farmland is very valuable to Russia, and is the primary reason that Stalin and now Putin wanted to take Ukraine for their own 'breadbasket". Beaton may be right that the Russian army is spent, but I believe that Putin believes that with five years of peace, he can rebuild it totally, and having cleaned out the rot in three years of war, then be ready to go for Estonia, Latvia, Lituania and Poland. If Trump's intent is the scare the hell out of the Euroweenies, and they RICHLY deserve it, with threats to pull out of NATO, so that their 2% of GDP for their defense, which most cheated hard on, has now become 5% of GDP that they are scrambling to willingly spend, then as a gambit to kick them in the butt, I like it. If it is really pulling out of NATO, I don't like it. The USA as an equal partner, although it can never actually be equal, it can be far more equal, NATO with more members, including the previously neutral and relatively neutered Finland and Sweden, can once again be a REAL deterrent to a resurgent, imperialistic Russia. And don't imagine that "Putin can't last forever" will change anything. There are many more Russian imperialists in line behind him, although not too close, lest they fall out of a 7 story window, to carry on the imperialistic fever to 'rebuild the Soviet Union', a sick fever dream that has never died in the minds of too many Russians. In real poititk, it may be sadly necessary to trade some Ukrainian farmland for peace. This will be a bit more difficult than most ignorant Americans think, and if you react "I'm not an ignorant American", this formerly ignorant American, who was ONLY able to put together a reasonable understanding of the truly unique Russian psyche at the very end of 10 years of working and traveling with them for long periods, will tell you, yes, you do NOT understand the Russian psyche, it is NOT like you think, and the space doesn't permit explanation, and you would not believe me anyway. I know, because I wouldn't have believed it had I not lived it. In any case, we have to live in the real world. The Russian Duma has made the southern oblasts (states) of Ukraine OFFICIALLY and PERMANENTLY, by law, part of Russia. They do NOT control all of that land, so any sane proposal wouldn't give them MORE land than the large amount that they have actually under control by force of arms. So it's harder than most think , Russia has to rewrite their laws, which can happen but is more embarrassing to Putin and Russians. I have to silver bullet for this war, and even if I did, neither Putin nor Trump is listening to me. I will watch and see. But Trump intentionally embarrassing Ukraine and cozying up to Putin has a lot of stink to it as far as I am concerned. A lot.
4 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Italiano 2/22/2025 11:35:54 AM (No. 1901642)
Glenn is spot on here. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the acceptable.
4 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: DVC 2/22/2025 11:38:23 AM (No. 1901644)
At the end of my post that should read, "I have NO silver bullet....."
1 person likes this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: jeffkinnh 2/22/2025 11:40:15 AM (No. 1901645)
There's another aspect to consider. Trump will finish this war one way or another because he WILL NOT commit the US to a long term war. If Trump had won in 2020 the war would not have started. But senile Biden let it happen. The article talks about 3 more years of war but Ukraine will not last that long without US help and they will NOT have it. Trump has blazed a path out. It isn't pretty but it is workable. AND, realistically, it's the only plan on the table. To go on as things are, EVERYONE will lose. With America First, Trump is protecting America and then trying to do the best he can for everyone else.
9 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: Bur Oak 2/22/2025 12:05:51 PM (No. 1901673)
If Putin weakens himself too much in the Ukraine he risks the Chinese slicing off some of Siberia.
3 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: Dodge Boy 2/22/2025 12:21:04 PM (No. 1901688)
And Trump's part of the deal. He gets to buy Greenland while Putie goes home and watches. The Art of the Deal.
2 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: franco 2/22/2025 1:07:10 PM (No. 1901714)
#3 & #7 - Good insights. To this I would also like to *dispel* the notion that Russia can't be beaten because it has 3x the number of people that Ukraine has. This is favorite talking point of Tucker Carlson. Problem is, by Carlson's logic the nation-state of Israel (outnumbered 15-20 to 1 in various wars since modern-day founding) should also not exist. And yet it does. If "the west" has the stomach to finance Ukraine for 3+ more years (not likely, either in DC or the capitals of western Europe, which are used to Uncle Sam footing their defense bills), Ukraine is showing now that a 3x manpower advantage can be overcome quite easily by flooding the air with drones that kill Russians and Koreans easily for tens of dollars each.
1 person likes this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: earlybird 2/22/2025 1:18:19 PM (No. 1901720)
What #9 is ttalking about? Ukraine Is Daring Russia To Open Fire On Swarms Of New Trembita Drones. Many Of The Drones Will Be Decoys. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/02/21/ukraine-is-daring-russia-to-open-fire-on-swarms-of-new-trembita-drones-many-of-the-drones-will-be-decoys/
0 people like this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: earlybird 2/22/2025 1:28:33 PM (No. 1901726)
Meanwhile Russia has drones: Ukraine's air defence downs 82 drones overnight, 75 more go off radar https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-air-defence-downs-82-060825358.html
0 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: caljeepgirl 2/22/2025 5:50:24 PM (No. 1901848)
This is a wonderful, very clear presentation of all the realities of the situation! Answered all my questions....
1 person likes this.

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