There’s Something Fishy About FiveThirtyEight’s
Election Projection Model
Posted By: Hazymac, 6/13/2024 8:22:36 AM
There are two key things we have at our disposal to assess the state of a presidential election. The first, of course, is match-up polling. The second is approval ratings. Even when an incumbent isn't seeking reelection, the approval ratings of the incumbent party are still informative. If you're following the approval and match-up polls at all this campaign, you know two things: Joe Biden isn't very popular, and Donald Trump is leading in most of the battleground states. Considering these two factors alone — and there are plenty more that suggest Trump is favored to win — things look darn good for President Trump in November. Except, according to FiveThirtyEight,
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Happy Friday, dear Kruiser Morning Briefing friends. (Snip) It's been a while (OK, 4 1/2 months) since we last shared a "Why in the hell are we still in the United Nations?" moment. We have all been thinking it for a very long time and I think it's important to revisit the classics, so here we are.
The list of reasons to intensely dislike the UN is a lengthy read. Its chumminess with terrorists is at the top of mine.
When we last were discussing the UN, it was regarding allegations that some of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) employees were giving Hamas a helping
The gay community has done a 180 on Anthony Fauci over the years and might do yet another.
During the AIDS situation of the 1980s to early 1990s, the New York Times suggested that Anthony Fauci was "dedicated" and "overburdened," but claimed his AIDS Clinical Trials Group suffered from a "battery of illogical and murderous clinical restrictions." Someone posted his head on a spike.
Some believe Fauci drop-kicked the ball on AIDS, with one activist, Larry Kramer, going so far as to suggest Fauci should have a meeting with a firing squad.
Fauci claimed he went to gay bathhouses in the 1980s to "essentially see what was going on"
So far, Joe Biden has had a day of confusion in Fasano, Italy, at the G7.
This video of Biden wandering off and looking at something else, then Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni going to corral him and having to babysit him, pretty much said it all for most of the day. (X) But he has been wandering in confusion since he landed, saying weird things and needing assistance from the other leaders. Then Biden had a press conference with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, where they signed the agreement. So, supporting Ukraine not just now but with no end in sight and no goal as
Paul Bedard is one of those soberly serious conservative columnists who isn't prone to sensationalism, so when you see him write a piece headlined, "Questions raised about medically juicing Biden for debate," it does make me sit up and take notice. "Some are speculating that [Presidentish Joe] Biden," he wrote for the Washington Examiner on Tuesday, "may be medically revitalized during his visit to the Maryland presidential resort."
Others aren't merely speculating. We're convinced that the human body doesn't contain enough blood to produce a draw big enough to test for all the drugs he might be pumped full of before the June 27 presidential debate in Atlanta.
There are few things I enjoy more about this job than writing a good "hilarity ensues" headline about the latest lefty absurdity, but when it comes to today's Chicago Public Schools (CPS) absurdity, the only word that will do is "tragedy." Illinois Policy just issued a report showing that while CPS has doubled spending per student since 2012, grades are down by 60-80%, depending on the subject. "Just 1-in-4 CPS students can read or perform math at grade level," the report says. "The percent of students enrolling in college after high school graduation is decreasing. And for those who do enroll, another study
There are two key things we have at our disposal to assess the state of a presidential election. The first, of course, is match-up polling. The second is approval ratings. Even when an incumbent isn't seeking reelection, the approval ratings of the incumbent party are still informative.
If you're following the approval and match-up polls at all this campaign, you know two things: Joe Biden isn't very popular, and Donald Trump is leading in most of the battleground states. Considering these two factors alone — and there are plenty more that suggest Trump is favored to win — things look darn good for President Trump in November.
Except, according to FiveThirtyEight,
It used to be that the rich and powerful were exempt from the everyday woes middle-class citizens experienced at the hands of poor Democratic leadership. But at some point, things get so bad that it even reaches those at the top.
Goldie Hawn recently confessed that she and Kurt Russell's home had been invaded twice in the last four months, once even while she was in the home. She described the disturbing situation during an interview on SiriusXM's "Let's Talk Off Camera with Kelly Ripa."
The first time took an emotional toll on her. She and Kurt had gone out for dinner and when they returned, they found the home ransacked:
While it is widely known the media landscape is looking like a war zone, with perpetual layoffs and announced closing of outlets coming on the regular, what is not always seen is how far-reaching the ripples can become. With the struggles shown to be widespread, one of the sources that has been affected is one few may have expected – the Associated Press. The well-established news syndicate has also been under duress, and a curious revelation shows just how poorly things have become. Our own Andrew Malcolm shared with me a recent discovery on the news portal site – they are asking for donations from the readers these days. (X)
Back in April, Joe Biden, following in Barack Obama's footsteps, unilaterally changed Title IX, which protects women and girls from discrimination in education, by reinterpreting the law to treat “gender identity” the same as biological sex. This move allowed biological males to play women's sports and gave them access to scholarships intended for women, as well as women's locker rooms, private spaces, and single-sex housing. A federal judge in Texas, who called Biden's effort an "unlawful action," just shut that move down.
Title IX pertains exclusively to biological sex, with no references to “gender identity,” “gender expression,” or any other weird concept radical left-wing gender ideology
Biden's Massive Incoherence in Ironic
New Remarks on 'Gun Sense' After Hunter's Conviction 9 replies
New Remarks on 'Gun Sense' After Hunter's Conviction 9 replies
I don't know if you could have planned the coincidence and the irony better. On the very day that Joe Biden's son Hunter was convicted on three gun charges, Joe Biden gave a speech to the Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund conference about "gun sense." (X) He was more than an hour and a half late making his remarks. Was there a question going on behind the scenes about what he should say in response?
He finally showed up and was immediately incoherent. After he spoke for a couple of minutes, he was immediately heckled by a protester yelling about "genocide."
Biden Still Thinks He Can Win a Civil War
12 replies
I'm going to preface this entire article by saying that one of the things I really don't ever want to happen is for our nation to be plunged into an all-out civil war again. If you thought the first one was horrendous, a second one would be even worse, with far less organization and neither side having any modicum of respect for the other. There would be no "north" or "south." It would be a street-to-street conflict that has so many factions that you'd lose track of them all. In the end, it wouldn't be a "war"; it would be a horror story that wouldn't officially end at some courthouse.
What Will Biden Offer Hamas in Hostage Deal?
15 replies
Even as the Biden administration is still trying to undermine Israel by pushing its proposed deal which would save Hamas and leave it in charge in Gaza, the administration is also considering a private deal with Hamas.
"Biden administration officials have discussed potentially negotiating a unilateral deal with Hamas to secure the release of five Americans being held hostage in Gaza if current cease-fire talks involving Israel fail, according to two current senior U.S. officials and two former senior U.S. officials.
Such negotiations would not include Israel and would be conducted through Qatari interlocutors, as current talks have been, said the officials, all of whom have been briefed on the discussions.
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The head actuaries for Social Security and Medicare have testified before a House committee about looming financial challenges which could see funds run short by 2035.
Social Security relies on its trust funds to provide monthly benefit checks to around 70 million Americans.
But an aging population is pushing up the cost of the program as a smaller share of people are paying into it, and spending is outpacing income.
First Lady Jill Biden is arguing in favor of her husband’s old age while on the campaign trail, telling voters that President Joe Biden is a “healthy, wise 81-year-old” and that “age is a gift.”
“This isn’t just about stopping an extremist, and this election is most certainly not about age,” Dr. Jill Biden said Thursday at a Green Bay, Wisconsin, event, CNN reported. “Joe and that other guy are essentially the same age. Let’s not be fooled. But what this election is about, it’s about the character of the person leading our country.”
As the first lady stops in Wisconsin, Minnesota, California, Nevada, and Arizona, she is rolling out
The Justice Department said Friday it will not prosecute Merrick Garland on contempt-of-Congress charges, two days after House Republicans voted to hold the attorney general in contempt for refusing to turn over the audio from President Joe Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur.
The DOJ said Friday the refusal to provide the audio did not amount to a crime.
House lawmakers voted 216–207 on the Garland contempt resolution on Wednesday, with one Republican representative, Dave Joyce of Ohio, joining Democrats in voting against it. Eight members did not vote on the measure.
Donald Trump got his 78th birthday present a day early — a handshake from his longtime bitter critic, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, encapsulating the Republican Party’s complete submission to its presumptive presidential nominee.
The twice-impeached 45th president and newly convicted criminal was back on Capitol Hill Thursday for the first time since his supporters beat up police officers and smashed their way through the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Nancy Pelosi is losing it.
The former Democrat Speaker of the House is the walking personification of Trump Derangement Syndrome. Her hatred for the former (and likely next) president burns white-hot, as evidenced by her petulant, childish, immature, and unbecoming incident in which she tore up her copy of President Trump's 2020 State of the Union speech. Now, she's just becoming pathetic, as we see in her recent interview with MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell, where she begged the Trump family and the GOP to "stage an intervention" to prevent Trump from running. Why? Probably because she can see that he's winning.
Fortunately, Friday is Joe Biden's last day in Italy for the G7, so the time that he can embarrass us overseas at the conference is thankfully coming to an end. We've seen him wandering and people having to help redirect him back to where he was supposed to be going. We've seen him giving garbled answers and snapping at a reporter because the reporter dared to ask him a question at his presser that wasn't about Ukraine. That managed to get a reaction out of the White House Correspondents Association. They threw Biden under the bus in their statement, saying there were no "deals" as he claimed.
The United States Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s 2018 ban on bump stocks in a Friday ruling, with Justice Clarence Thomas writing the majority opinion in a 6-3 decision.
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) issued the ban at former president Donald Trump’s urging after the gunman who killed 58 people in a 2017 Las Vegas shooting was found to have used bump stocks, which increase a rifle’s rate of fire by using the recoil from a semiautomatic rifle to fire bullets in rapid succession.
The Trump administration argued in 2018 that adding bump stocks to semiautomatic rifles converts them into machine guns
Hunter Biden is dropping his lawsuit accusing Rudy Giuliani and the former New York City mayor’s ex-lawyer of manipulating data found on his infamous laptop.
Biden’s lawyer Abbe Lowell filed the stipulation for dismissal Thursday in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. (snip) The lawsuit claimed that Giuliani, 80, and Costello violated the federal Computer Fraud and Abuse Act when they allegedly hacked and manipulated data on the abandoned laptop in a “total annihilation” of the disgraced first son’s “digital privacy.”
The Los Angeles City Council has decided to remove ‘No U-Turn’ signs from a gay neighborhood, claiming they’re homophobic.
In an era where ideologies should be advancing, it’s baffling that the far-left remains stuck in the past, misreading everyday symbols as politicized messages.
Who, in the year 2024, still believes that road signs like “No U-Turn” are covert directives aimed at the LGBTQ+ community, instructing them not to engage in wild sex in the streets?
I didn’t know that traffic signs were hurting feelings.
According to the LA Times:
Messages like, “No cruising. No U-turns. Midnight to 6 am” were posted around the neighborhood in 1997,
Democrats plan to disrupt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to a special joint session of Congress on July 24 in an unprecedented show of hostility to the democratically-elected leader of a close American ally.
56 Democrats boycotted Netanyahu’s speech in 2015, when Republicans invited him to argue against then-President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. This time, Axios reports, “Democrats plan to go bigger than a boycott”:
The proposals include a press conference, a vigil, or an event with families of those taken hostage by Hamas, many of whom feel Netanyahu hasn’t done enough to free their loved ones.
In a sign of how extensive and high-level some of these discussions are,
In a major new Mail series starting today, Maureen Callahan's book 'Ask Not: The Kennedys and the Women They Destroyed' is published in four groundbreaking extracts....Here, she details the stunning fortitude of Jackie Kennedy as her husband died in front her...
The day was hot and wild, the sun so strong. Jackie Kennedy went to put on her sunglasses, but the president said: 'No, please don't — they really came to see you.'
Driving along the streets of Dealey Plaza in Dallas, Texas, she could hear the screams of her husband's supporters over the presidential motorcade.
Shark Tank star Kevin O'Leary has revealed his pick for Donald Trump's vice president, as suspense builds over who will join him on the 2024 ticket.
Speaking exclusively to DailyMail.com, the investor hailed North Dakota governor and former businessman Doug Burgum as a potential buffer to the often unpredictable former president.
'If you're an independent and you're thinking that Trump is too crazy, but then you've got Burgum in the package, then you've got some "Trump insurance". That's the way I think they're going to sell it,' he said.