Can Putin Survive? The Lessons of the
Soviet Collapse
Foreign Affairs,
by
Vladislav Zubok
Original Article
Posted By: MDConservative,
6/26/2022 11:34:55 AM
On May 9, 2022, a column of tanks and artillery thundered down Moscow’s Red Square. Over 10,000 soldiers marched through the city’s streets. It was Russia’s 27th annual Victory Day parade, in which the country commemorates the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin, presiding over the ceremonies, gave a speech praising his country’s military and fortitude.
Reply 1 - Posted by:
Blue-Z-Anna 6/26/2022 11:59:32 AM (No. 1197496)
Why is it that the more mature Communist dictators do things in favor of their own country..... While our domestic wannabe marxists can't seem to do anything that is the least bit beneficial for the home team.
Putin might be evil and a little bit crazy but at least he does things which he perceives to be in the interest of Russia.
5 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
formerNYer 6/26/2022 12:19:31 PM (No. 1197511)
Good long article and very good analysis, but I'm not sure that I agree with all his points. Anyway, one of the big questions not mentioned in the article is how bad is Putin's cancer? And if the war is not over will his successor continue it or ask for an armistice?
2 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
padiva 6/26/2022 12:38:46 PM (No. 1197533)
If Russia collapses, Biden will take credit for it. It will be written on his cue card.
2 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
NorthernDog 6/26/2022 12:42:23 PM (No. 1197535)
I think Putin will endure - as long as he is healthy, citizens can put food on the table, and the lights stay on. As the article points out, there is not enough political opposition to oust him. If Ukraine gets to be too much of a burden Putin can declare 'victory', and Western sanctions will start to melt.
3 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
Rich323 6/26/2022 1:06:12 PM (No. 1197572)
Hopefully they will resolve this diplomatically and a wounded Russia won’t resort to lashing out in a highly aggressive manner. We have an outstanding military down in the trenches, but we have NO smart intelligence officials or senior military leaders at the top. If the government is trying to destroy America internally, why would they even try to win externally in a war, as that seems counterproductive to their goals. Maybe the military industrial complex wants to fleece us once again.
2 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
Subsuburban 6/26/2022 1:06:28 PM (No. 1197574)
Russians are not by nature particularly inclined to seek democratic alternatives to autocratic rule. It took a German Jew to destabilize the centuries-long rule of the Tsars. Once the Marxist/Leninists gained their hold on the reins of power, they ruled for another century. The politics changed when the USSR became too corrupt to exist, but the underlying Russian proclivity to accept autocratic rule persisted--and persists. Putin will pass from the scene sooner or later (sooner, one hopes) but will be replaced by another autocratic tyrant. To expect otherwise is wishful thinking.
1 person likes this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
stablemoney 6/26/2022 1:14:43 PM (No. 1197586)
Foreign Affairs is a left wing house of leftists. I would not ask them what Putin is going to do, or what will happen to Russia. So far, the big losers have been the financial ruin of the U.S. and the EU, which is closer to collapse than Russia.
0 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
Luke21 6/26/2022 1:18:27 PM (No. 1197592)
I'll skip the Council on Foreign Relations this morning.
0 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
sherlock1 6/26/2022 1:23:31 PM (No. 1197599)
What might have happened if Obama hadn't looked the other way in 2014? Or Biden given tacit approval to a "limited incursion". The article ignores the fact that US and western weakness in general smoothed the way for Putin. "The eighties are calling", Obama! Please
0 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Kate318 6/26/2022 2:52:24 PM (No. 1197678)
Such desperate Russia stories today. My oh my.
0 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
DVC 6/26/2022 3:04:19 PM (No. 1197685)
Interesting commentary, and nothing in it conflicts with what I learned from a decade of doing scientific research and engineering projects in Russian and several other former Soviet states.
One issue left unaddressed was what happens when Putin dies? He may or may not be actually ill, but he cannot live forever, and typically dictators are so obsessed with retaining power that they relentlessly murder or otherwise eliminate all potential replacement leaders - which leaves a serious power vacuum when they are gone, frequently leading to much chaos.
2 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
mifla 6/28/2022 7:36:57 AM (No. 1199400)
What a waste. Russians live in a country that is abundant in natural resources, farmland, sea ports, and hard working people. They could be a capitalist paradise, but can't seem to get rid of their useless government.
0 people like this.
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Comments:
This is a long article...and worth the read. It explains that the Ukrainian war looks very different in Putin’s telling than it does to the West. And that parallels to 1991 are mistaken. This time the Russians have capable economists and a significant account of foreign exchange at hand. Regardless of the eventual outcome of the war, Russia will continue to exist...and then there's China.