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Nate Cohn: It Wasn't Turnout that Doomed Democrats

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Posted By: Dreadnought, 12/3/2024 10:28:40 PM

Today, Nate Cohn has an analysis of polling data collected by the NY Times and Siena College. What it shows is exactly what this earlier Vox article also found. Democrats did not lose the 2024 election because of turnout. Put another way, they didn't lose because the progressive base was unenthusiastic and decided to stay home. They lost because swing voters turned away from them and toward Donald Trump. The low turnout among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups — especially nonwhite voters — was a reflection of lower support for Harris: Millions of Democrats soured on their party

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Reply 1 - Posted by: john56 12/3/2024 11:12:25 PM (No. 1847795)
I'd like to say I knew it, but maybe I was lucky. At least a month or two before the election, I called it. Trump was over-performing his 2016 and 2020 vote totals among many groups ... Blacks, Hispanics, men, women, urban, suburban, working-class. Only group he may have under-performed was never-Trumpers and those afflicted by TDS. But I doubt the Trump campaign counted on their votes from the start.
7 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Jiobaobubai 12/3/2024 11:38:07 PM (No. 1847806)
The dems could not as easily cheat this time.
11 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: billa57 12/4/2024 5:54:07 AM (No. 1847871)
Laura Trump did an excellent job of putting together thousands of lawyers and volunteers to prevent the Democrat voter fraud machine from working. We will need to do that every election. More so in states like California, where again they have been allowed to count until they won.
6 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Venturer 12/4/2024 8:44:52 AM (No. 1847966)
Not al democrats were turned out . Only the ones who weren't involved in lengthy counting. If you keep counting democrats will win.
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