Trump Recalculating for a Landslide?
Posted By: Dreadnought, 7/11/2024 12:34:30 PM
One unfortunate feature of national political campaigns over the last quarter-century has been the "base turnout" model. Rather than try to modulate the message and agenda to appeal to the center, both of the major parties have focused instead on energizing their base. Barack Obama may have been the exception in this century, about which I wrote in my book Going Red, but even that was only in his first presidential election. By 2012, Obama had to rely on his base and his considerable personal approval to skate by in a close re-election effort. Donald Trump also relied on a base-turnout model in both of his presidential elections, as did
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President Joe Biden’s efforts to escape party pressure on him to quit his reelection campaign are certainly worthy of the attention the media is giving it, though it’s not unprecedented in modern history.
Former President Jimmy Carter faced a potentially fatal political challenge from the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy. Lyndon B. Johnson did bow out amid the Vietnam War fiasco.
However, with having a single focus on Biden, the media is missing a bigger historical story for the modern era: former President Donald Trump’s comeback.
“Donald Trump is poised to score one of the biggest comebacks in American history — new history in the making — but
Post-1976, every single presidential election has either had a Bush, a Clinton, or a Biden (or a combination thereof) somewhere on the ticket. And that’s a 45+-year timeframe of 12 different presidential elections! So, yeah – in American politics, institutional momentum and a politician’s long-term brand identification means a helluva lot.
Eventually, however, all brand identities will mutate. Brand IDs aren’t fixed, static things; they’re constantly evolving – or devolving – and over time, they transform into something dimensionally different from what they once were. For thousands of years, the swastika was a Hindu symbol of good fortune that was wholly disconnected from abhorrent theories of racism,
Tesla CEO and X/Twitter owner Elon Musk has reportedly donated to a pro-Trump Super PAC in an effort to help re-elect former President Donald Trump.
Anonymous sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Musk had donated a “sizeable amount” to America PAC. The Super PAC has reportedly been the “biggest spender on direct voter contacts” and has spent roughly “$15.8 million so far,” according to the outlet.
America PAC is described as being a group that works “mostly behind the scenes to bolster the Trump campaign’s ground game,” according to the outlet. The outlet notes that Musk’s donation would “deal a devastating blow to” President Joe Biden and the Democrat Party:
An analysis of the 2024 presidential election by FiveThirtyEight found that while the election was close, President Joe Biden was still favored to win, despite his poor debate performance.
FiveThirtyEight found that Biden was favored to win the November presidential election “50 times out of 100,” whereas former President Donald Trump was favored to win the presidential election “49 times out of 100.” The predicted outcomes were a result of FiveThirtyEight’s “simulations of the 2024 presidential election.” Out of 1,000 simulations, FiveThirtyEight found that Biden won 505 times, while Trump won 491 times.
Gee, maybe Joe Biden had a point about Democrat 'elites' pushing him out of the race. Beege alluded to the whiplash that New York Times readers must now be experiencing as their columnists and editors go back and forth on Biden's prospects. Like Beege, The Clash's most famous song has been running through my head since the debate, and it's clearly haunting the Gray Lady.
However, the Times escalated its prophecies of doom today in two key analyses. First off, Bill Clinton adviser Doug Sosnik offered an extensive analysis of the Electoral College scenarios that appear in play, and he's not at all optimistic about Biden's chances. In fact,
Seeking to revive his struggling re-election campaign, President Joe Biden held a rare rally in Detroit, telling a cheering crowd he wasn't going to leave the race and warning that Republican Donald Trump poses a serious threat.
Mr Biden, 81, is trying to shift the conversation from his mental sharpness to the impact of another Mr Trump presidency, as his campaign struggles after his shaky debate performance on 27 June.
"I am running and we're going to win," he said to a crowd that carried "Motown is Joe town" signs and chanted "Don't you quit" before he spoke.
"I'm the nominee," he said. "I'm not going anywhere."
In a dramatic turn of events, Alec Baldwin has seen his involuntary manslaughter trial for the fatal 2022 shooting of Rust cinematographer Halyna Hutchins dismissed today by a New Mexico judge.
As well, the decision by Judge Mary Marlowe Sommer on Friday at the end of an evidentiary hearing over a defense motion to dismiss and bullets dropped off to Santa Fe police in recent weeks by ex-Arizona cop Troy Teske could see incarcerated Rust armorer Hannah Gutierrez-Reed released from state prison in the Land of Enchantment. Earlier today, Erlinda Johnson, one of the special prosecutors in the case resigned because she didn’t agree with
AT&T says hackers accessed records of
calls and texts for nearly all its cellular customers 13 replies
calls and texts for nearly all its cellular customers 13 replies
AT&T on Friday disclosed that hackers had accessed records of calls and texts of "nearly all" its cellular customers for a six-month period between May 1, 2022 to Oct. 31, 2022.
In its statement, AT&T said the compromised data doesn't include the content of the calls or texts, or personal information such as Social Security numbers, birth dates or other personally identifiable information.
The hack also includes records from Jan. 2, 2023 for a "very small number of customers," AT&T said. The telecom giant said that it learned about the illegal download in April, and that it is working with law enforcement, noting that "at least one
Trove Of Biden Docs Details How DHS Planned
To Crack Down On Conservative Voices,
Law Group Says 10 replies
To Crack Down On Conservative Voices,
Law Group Says 10 replies
America First Legal (AFL) made public a trove of documents that reveal a coordinated effort within the Biden administration to crack down on the free speech of its political opponents, according to the conservative law group.
AFL obtained the documents through legal action taken against the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) over its now-defunct Homeland Intelligence Experts Group. The group coordinated with an advisory body led by former intelligence officials John Brennan and James Clapper on ways to combat “domestic terrorism,” which includes cracking down on political dissent, according to AFL.
Major Democratic donors are reportedly
withholding $10s of millions unless Biden
drops out 12 replies
withholding $10s of millions unless Biden
drops out 12 replies
Donors told a leading Biden super PAC that they're pausing around $90 million of promised funds unless the president steps aside, two sources told the New York Times. Some of the pledges were going to stretch into the eight-figures.
Future Forward is the biggest super PAC supporting Biden and declined to comment on the fallout. A spokesperson did tell The Times that the PAC expects donors to return once the uncertainty about the campaign sorts itself out. Biden, for one, seems sorted — he is digging in his heels about staying in the race, but Democrats are reluctant to accept his answer.
The withheld donations illustrate the depth
Donald Trump's advisors and allies viewed last night's debate as the most advantageous outcome possible.
“Best of both worlds,” said a Trump ally. “Bad but not bad enough to be forced out.”
“Democrats’ worst nightmare is unfolding," said a Trump advisor. "He gave us enough new material and may stave off his insurrection.”
While the polls show Trump and Biden either in a statistical dead heat or Trump slightly ahead, the battleground states look awful for Biden. He trails Trump by six points in Pennsylvania and four points in Wisconsin. All things considered, this severely narrows Biden's path to 270 electoral votes and victory.
"I think he's doing OK enough to stay.
The European Commission on Friday accused Elon Musk's X of deceiving users and infringing digital content rules, putting the social media giant at risk of a hefty fine.
The commission, which is the European Union's executive arm, started an investigation last year to assess whether X is in breach of the Digital Services Act (DSA) — a piece of landscape legislation requiring Big Tech firms to better police the content on their platforms.//snip//In a post on X, Musk claimed that his company was offered an "illegal secret deal" by the commission that would have allowed it to avoid a fine "if we quietly censored speech."
"The other platforms accepted that deal,"
Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)
In a dramatic turn of events, Alec Baldwin has seen his involuntary manslaughter trial for the fatal 2022 shooting of Rust cinematographer Halyna Hutchins dismissed today by a New Mexico judge.
As well, the decision by Judge Mary Marlowe Sommer on Friday at the end of an evidentiary hearing over a defense motion to dismiss and bullets dropped off to Santa Fe police in recent weeks by ex-Arizona cop Troy Teske could see incarcerated Rust armorer Hannah Gutierrez-Reed released from state prison in the Land of Enchantment. Earlier today, Erlinda Johnson, one of the special prosecutors in the case resigned because she didn’t agree with
A new documentary makes the case that President Abraham Lincoln was gay.
Called “Lover of Men: The Untold History of Abraham Lincoln,” the film project claims to detail “Lincoln’s romantic relationships with men” by utilizing “preeminent Lincoln scholars and never before seen photographs and letters,” according to promotional copy obtained by the New York Post.
“Lincoln probably slept in the same bed with more men than he did with women,” one expert in the film remarked, according to the Post.
Many of the historians interviewed work at Ivy League and small liberal arts colleges, including Harvard, Columbia, Brown, and Wellesley.
The federal government is spending $1.7 billion to modernize automobile manufacturing facilities, helping the industry compete with foreign subsidies and create and protect jobs.
As part of the Automotive Community Benefits Plan, the current administration will extend grants to 11 selected manufacturing plants in eight states, including in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, that have temporarily closed or were at risk of closing.
An analysis of the 2024 presidential election by FiveThirtyEight found that while the election was close, President Joe Biden was still favored to win, despite his poor debate performance.
FiveThirtyEight found that Biden was favored to win the November presidential election “50 times out of 100,” whereas former President Donald Trump was favored to win the presidential election “49 times out of 100.” The predicted outcomes were a result of FiveThirtyEight’s “simulations of the 2024 presidential election.” Out of 1,000 simulations, FiveThirtyEight found that Biden won 505 times, while Trump won 491 times.
When Kamala Harris took to the stage during a Democratic primary debate before the 2020 election and implied that Joe Biden was racist, his wife, Jill's, response was crystal clear.
'Go f*** yourself,' the then-future first lady vented, as she allegedly admitted during a conference call with supporters.
And the relationship between the two women – that began badly enough during that contentious battle for the presidential nomination – has only gone downhill from there.Now, political insiders have told DailyMail.com that Democratic advisors are struggling to push past the powerful role that Jill Biden's loathing of Harris, 59, is playing in Joe's resistance
The last embedded myth about Joe Biden is that he’s a decent man. Like the rest of his life’s story, his “decency” is a made-up contrivance.
Biden has a habit of abusing the dead to his own end. Biden’s first wife Neilia and infant daughter died in a car crash. Neilia Biden was holding their daughter while driving. The accident was entirely her fault. She had a stop sign that she either blew through or didn’t check left and right before proceeding. The Biden car was broadsided by a truck driven by Curtis Dunn. It didn’t take long for Joe to blame Dunn, who was immediately
Seeking to revive his struggling re-election campaign, President Joe Biden held a rare rally in Detroit, telling a cheering crowd he wasn't going to leave the race and warning that Republican Donald Trump poses a serious threat.
Mr Biden, 81, is trying to shift the conversation from his mental sharpness to the impact of another Mr Trump presidency, as his campaign struggles after his shaky debate performance on 27 June.
"I am running and we're going to win," he said to a crowd that carried "Motown is Joe town" signs and chanted "Don't you quit" before he spoke.
"I'm the nominee," he said. "I'm not going anywhere."
The Ninth Circuit shoots down COVID vaccine
21 replies
The COVID shot was put on trial in the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, and coming from California the result might surprise you. Three of four judges agree it was never a “traditional vaccine” and therefore could not legally be mandated.
The case was against the Los Angeles Unified School District (“LAUSD”) that “required employees to get the COVID-19 vaccination or lose their jobs.” While this case was making its way thru the courts, LAUSD was playing Hokey-Pokey with their policy on “vaccination” which didn’t play well in their litigation strategy, as it allowed the case to be kept alive rather than becoming moot.
How the Pentagon wants to cancel Thanksgiving
and teach military kids that America is
'stolen land' 19 replies
and teach military kids that America is
'stolen land' 19 replies
Campaigners have uncovered worrying teaching materials for the Pentagon's 160 military schools that many service members may see as unpatriotic and even scary.
Training manuals for its 8,000 teachers advise that Thanksgiving feasts have no historical basis and that America was founded on land 'stolen' from natives.
Though uncontroversial for some, Adam Andrzejewski, who uncovered the documents via public records requests, calls it a 'perverse' way to teach kids of service members.
His revelations come as Republicans and Democrats clash in the Senate over LGBTQ+ troops and other controversies in the $886 billion defense bill.
We’re learning something valuable. Censorship works better than gaslighting, but even that fails. Joe Biden’s “cognitive decline” has been ongoing since at least 2019. If you didn’t understand why Biden ran his 2020 campaign from his Wilmington rec room, now you know. COVID precaution was a convenient excuse. Biden wasn’t ever going to draw a crowd like Trump, so masking up and hanging out in front of his big screen was an easy dodge. But it was his deteriorating brain that kept him off the campaign trail.
Dementia sufferers are easily confused and frustrated. They don’t handle crowds and noise well. Biden’s handlers
I’m glad I waited before sharing the following analysis because I’m not as concerned today as I was when I originally read the Guardian article. Yesterday, The Guardian reported that Donald Trump Jr would be introducing the VP nominee at the RNC convention. According to them, that could indicate a strong likelihood of JD Vance as the nominee. That would be horrible. [Snip] ...what’s really happening is that Don Jr’s speech and intro is really just talking before the VP nominee makes his/her remarks. The VP will be announced days before the convention itself; [Snip] Maybe not JD Vance, and that’s a good thing.
Tesla CEO and X/Twitter owner Elon Musk has reportedly donated to a pro-Trump Super PAC in an effort to help re-elect former President Donald Trump.
Anonymous sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Musk had donated a “sizeable amount” to America PAC. The Super PAC has reportedly been the “biggest spender on direct voter contacts” and has spent roughly “$15.8 million so far,” according to the outlet.
America PAC is described as being a group that works “mostly behind the scenes to bolster the Trump campaign’s ground game,” according to the outlet. The outlet notes that Musk’s donation would “deal a devastating blow to” President Joe Biden and the Democrat Party: