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The coming collapse of commercial real estate

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Posted By: Magnante, 6/27/2023 5:10:29 AM

I’ve telecommuted for over 30 years, which was a choice I made once home computers and the internet enabled me to establish a virtual law office. However, there’s a huge difference between individuals and small offices making lifestyle and economic choices and the lockdown’s brute force transition. (snip) commercial real estate is empty. (snip) Building owners are walking away from mortgages, leaving their empty office towers to the banks, which cannot possibly find tenants for them. The result is that we are looking at a coming commercial real estate collapse that could make 2008’s home real estate recession look like a cheery block party

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Reply 1 - Posted by: Highlander 6/27/2023 8:08:53 AM (No. 1500430)
There’s a solution to this, and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani had the answer.
4 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: Skinnydip 6/27/2023 8:13:24 AM (No. 1500432)
I suspect if these downtown areas had proper policing and were safer many more workers would return.
17 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: NorthernDog 6/27/2023 8:25:44 AM (No. 1500444)
The biggest impact will come when new commercial leases have to be renewed. Since those leases often run for quite a few years, the impact has not been felt yet. Many commercial tenants will probably flee to cheaper properties in the suburbs, or move to 'red states' to get away from excessive costs of living.
13 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Rotten in Denmark 6/27/2023 8:58:11 AM (No. 1500459)
Cities are going the way of newspapers, it’s a combo of the Covid mess, crime, homeless and liberal politics but I repeat myself.
18 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: Strike3 6/27/2023 9:41:40 AM (No. 1500490)
Some of it will balance out by employers requiring their employees to come to the office or be fired since studies show that more than half of all workers who are employees and not in business for themselves do little to no work when they are home. It takes a lot of self-discipline, which many of today's workers do not have. I supported the IT infrastructure of five Big Pharma plants and could do it from most anywhere, including poolside, but I had no time to slack off. In Big Tech firms, it's a different story.
4 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: bpl40 6/27/2023 10:54:17 AM (No. 1500553)
There will be a sort of 'gravity separation' of jobs that cannot be done remotely and those that can, with some in between. A big change is coming from retail physical shopping and online. My wife will still go to the mall to look over clothes before she buys. But my daughter-in-law is not that particular especially because of demands of child care. This phenomenon is slowly growing. I have not gone into a bank or at an ATM in months. All pointers are towards a steady irreversible decline. Whether it will be rapid and drag residential properties with it remains to be seen.
8 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: DVC 6/27/2023 11:54:33 AM (No. 1500607)
Unrestricted criminal activity, super high taxes and insane eco-crazy interference with normal travel methods makes the big cities no longer desirable, and the ability to work remotely for many jobs makes it possible to just stay away from these Demonrat created hellholes.
2 people like this.

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Posted by Magnante 6/27/2023 5:10:29 AM Post Reply
I’ve telecommuted for over 30 years, which was a choice I made once home computers and the internet enabled me to establish a virtual law office. However, there’s a huge difference between individuals and small offices making lifestyle and economic choices and the lockdown’s brute force transition. (snip) commercial real estate is empty. (snip) Building owners are walking away from mortgages, leaving their empty office towers to the banks, which cannot possibly find tenants for them. The result is that we are looking at a coming commercial real estate collapse that could make 2008’s home real estate recession look like a cheery block party
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