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Welcome To Stagflation

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Posted By: RockyTCB, 4/29/2022 6:36:14 AM

When it comes to the economy, Democrats like to say it’s unfair to judge a president by his first year in office. Very well. President Biden is now in his second year and now we have the statistical verdict of his economic stewardship rendered by the first-quarter drop in GDP. Stagflation, anyone? It may well be that the first quarter’s annual GDP growth of -1.4% marks not just the beginning of a period of low or no growth accompanied by inflation, but also the return to the stagflation that ruined the decade of the 1970s and helped destroy the presidency of Jimmy Carter. And no, you can’t blame Donald Trump

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Reply 1 - Posted by: Alecto2 4/29/2022 6:57:53 AM (No. 1141391)
We are in an exponential version of FUBAR. If only there was a war we could cause and then join, that'd be a great distraction from this mess we've made. Hang about! What if..... FJB!
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Reply 2 - Posted by: Clinger 4/29/2022 8:09:46 AM (No. 1141416)
Words matter. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of decrease in GDP. When they said that they don’t foresee a recession what they are saying is that they don’t foresee contraction in consecutive quarters from an economy that declined rapidly due to COVID lockdowns. You can implement disastrous polities that alone would take an economy from 100% of a good level to 75% and never have a recession. If at first something rapid happens hypothetically a COVID lockdown and for simplicity sake let’s say that takes the economy to 50% of that good times baseline, just before you do the things that would have, without other major changes in significant variables, resulted in a decline to 75%. As you increase from 50% to 75% you can proclaim victory because as defined and using established measures, you are presiding over a growing economy. When we crashed in 2008 that set the stage for Obama to declare that he presided over an unprecedented period of economic growth. Yea, he presided over a disaster that grew into lousy and that was a record setting victory. Granted my hypothetical numbers were pulled out of my, somewhere, and intended to exaggerate to demonstrate a concept, but as we crawl from that COVID crash level I pretended was 50%, on the easy path to a lousy 75% or whatever that might be, we have failed to sustain growth and actually shrunk like getting to 65% and shrinking back to 60%. This is an epic failure that is easily missed, or under appreciated because of the official definitions and semantics. The inflation component speaks for itself far better. More money + less stuff = inflation caused by Putin.
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Reply 3 - Posted by: MDConservative 4/29/2022 9:47:14 AM (No. 1141509)
What President introduced an estimated $10 TRILLION Into our economy since the dawn of COVIDS to January 20, 2001? It was all a great idea then, wasn’t it? Free $$$, and other free sh-tuff that’s still being handed out by government. Add in the usual cost of doing government business and many of us have seen this movie back in 1968. Now, what politician is going to lead us back to the “old normal”? Repairs will take a decade or more.
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Reply 4 - Posted by: MickTurn 4/29/2022 10:03:47 AM (No. 1141534)
Correction: BidenStagFlation!
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Reply 5 - Posted by: DVC 4/29/2022 1:47:53 PM (No. 1141718)
When an economy is growing rapidly, increases in the money supply are necessary to avoid deflation. When the economy stops growing, the money supply must STOP increasing or your get inflation. THAT is why when the money supply was increasing under Trump there was no significant inflation. The anti-Trump poster who claims to be conservative, always reminds us how rotten a guy Trump really is, and how this is Trump's fault....not Joe's. Pure revisionism. There was minimal to no inflation under Trump, because his overall policies caused HUGE growth in jobs, the stock market, companies expanding, more new factories in the USA. If you pay attention to Milton Friedman, and on the money supply we really should, the key in money supply is to keep creating enough money to avoid 'crimping' the economy with too little, but at the same time avoid the tendency of the big government crazies to create TOO MUCH money - which causes inflation. When the country was tied rigidly to a gold standard in the 1800s, the ONLY way the money supply could grow was to find more gold. So, gold rushes led to unleashing the "tight money supply" restricted growth and recessions. Since we are disconnected from the gold standard, we can create money as we need it.....for good or ill. Too little - crimp the economy, and extreme cases lead to deflation. Too much (which the vote buyers in DC love) and you create inflation. Lots of money created under Trump - but it matched the economic growth, and thus, no significant inflation. The multiple huge handout bills have created way too much money at a time that the economy was being hammered by idiots ind DC closing things down (illegally, but they did it) and by destruction of the oil and gas industry, which has rippled disastrously through the rest of the economy. Slowing economy REQUIRES a slowing or stopping of the money supply. Uniparty DC Swamp Creatures, especially Dems, cannot do it. Kneecapping the economy and keeping the printing presses running at full speed was NOT Trump. There was minimal inflation because of the huge growth under Trump. Anti-Trumper's revisionism not withstanding, those are the facts.
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Reply 6 - Posted by: DVC 4/29/2022 1:51:31 PM (No. 1141720)
Clarification: The gold rushes "created more money" and this ended recessions and market problems, let the hobbled expansion actually happen. It almost sounded like I was saying gold rushes cause recessions....when I meant that they end them, 'freeing up" the economy strangled by a shortage of money, or even deflation.
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Reply 7 - Posted by: DrOstrow 4/29/2022 2:02:33 PM (No. 1141736)
Jimmy Carter 2.0. I'm afraid this one may be far worse and take longer to correct if that is even possible given our current mess. This is what happens when the 'children' get hold of the levers !
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Reply 8 - Posted by: DVC 4/29/2022 4:00:56 PM (No. 1141820)
Re #7. the "children" thing implies incompetence. This is intentional, Marxists trying as hard as they can to destroy the economy, not incompetence, or error as a child might do.
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