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Nate Silver Discovers the Difference Between
Republicans and Democrats

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Posted By: Dreadnought, 11/14/2024 12:02:58 AM

When doing a rundown of what his model did and did not show in the weeks before the election, Nate Silver made an observation that deserves to be noticed. In a piece about the virtues and vices of his model--it didn't PREDICT the outcome, but the most frequent outcome it spit out turned out to be the final result--Silver inserted what he called a "mini-rant" about the reaction he got from Democrats and Republicans to his ongoing analyses. It struck him that Republicans and Democrats took a very different approach to reading and reacting to his newsletters: Even though our forecast was near 50/50 for almost the whole race,

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Reply 1 - Posted by: thethirdruffian 11/14/2024 7:34:36 AM (No. 1834320)
The reason Leftists are “all or nothing” is because their entire philosophy is illogical. Any dissent and the entire thing collapses.
10 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: FormerDem 11/14/2024 7:35:36 AM (No. 1834321)
Nate Silver can ignore it but very many voters thnk the reason polls like his line up with the vote is that the Democrat Party uses them as guidance for how to cheat and have it be believable. Of course they do. They would have to be stupid not to. He can just ignore that as a driver of accuracy but it would be stricter if he attended to this confounding factor.
5 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: Sorosisbehindit 11/14/2024 7:37:29 AM (No. 1834324)
This is worth reading before you go to Thanksgiving with the family! "the left is more of an ideological monolith than the right. The bubble has gotten so small that even hinting that boys are boys and girls are girls will get you canceled." "Republicans on the whole, have been the "leave us alone" coalition for decades." "Republicans think Democrats are wrong, and Democrats think Republicans are evil" "You rarely hear about conservatives kicking people out of their families because of their politics."
8 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: FormerDem 11/14/2024 7:42:31 AM (No. 1834330)
I suggest Nate Siver check whetherthe accuracy of his polls is driven by Democratic cheating, which uses them for guidance on believable outcomes. And here would be a way to do that. Distinguish distrricts by the bipartisanship of poll watchers. And/or distinguish them by use of voter ID. I say you will find that poll results line up with forecasts best when the Republicans are not watching and the balloting methods invite cheating.
4 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: Snow Possum 11/14/2024 8:49:57 AM (No. 1834378)
Put another way... and try to follow this... The liberal universe is small and constricted. It shuts out all but its own. To a liberal there is no reason for one to even be a conservative. It is totally alien and foreign to them. So, conservatives are seen as a totally wrong and invading idea that threatens the order of their universe. The conservative universe has room for liberals. I would even say that the conservative universe has room for liberals in it. For the most part we know why they are liberal. And we know why they are dead wrong. But we at least have space carved out in the conservative universe for their existence and we have hope that they will maybe stumble upon the understanding that will break the spell and enlighten them. That is why liberals absolutely want us gone and out of their lives. We threaten the very foundations of their world view. And, as conservatives, with a larger scope of things, we can 'get them' while still disagreeing vehemently. We 'get' them. They have no ability to 'get' us.
1 person likes this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Starboard_side 11/14/2024 10:36:36 AM (No. 1834460)
Reading through the article you realize that Democrats aren't tolerant or inclusive at all. Particularly the further left from center their ideological perspective lands (i.e. Progressives). They push out anyone who disagrees with them (Blue Dog Democrats of yesteryear) to ensure they maintain the group-think consensus of their own echo chamber. Many don't seem to understand the U.S. Constitution or how they are free to do whatever they'd like in their own State like have extreme abortion laws, high taxes and high property taxes. If that's what the people of a particular state want they can do it if they have the votes. Many will find the recent DC Appeals Court ruling removing all EPA regulations over the past 46 years hard to understand, but conservatives won't. The CEQ regulations, which purport to govern how all federal agencies must comply with the National Environmental Policy Act, are ultra vires. Ultra vires means the CEQ was acting "beyond the legal scope of it authority." The court goes on to detail the shenanigans by which an advisory body with no regulatory authority was able to write environmental regulations for the entire United States for nearly a half-century just because it decided it could.
4 people like this.

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