The Climate Models Are Wrong
PowerLine,
by
John Hinderaker
Original Article
Posted By: Beardo,
1/28/2024 10:39:21 AM
Dr. Roy Spencer, a top scientist specializing in climate, wrote a report for Heritage which he summarized on his own web site.
Spencer compared observed warming in the U.S. corn belt during the summer, between 1973 and 2022–a 50-year period–with the warming that was predicted by the major climate models. He found that all of the models yielded more warming than actually occurred, most to an absurd degree.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
rytwng 1/28/2024 10:55:20 AM (No. 1646102)
Hot in the summer and cold in the winter, that's climate change.
20 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
bpl40 1/28/2024 11:06:52 AM (No. 1646112)
They are not just wrong but deliberately wrong.
26 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
jalo1951 1/28/2024 11:11:03 AM (No. 1646113)
You mean they lied to us? Astonishing! s/o I'm tired of dealing with the nonsense. Men can be more of a woman then biological women, there are 348 different genders, hot in summer and cold in winter is a sign of climate change, coffee is bad for the world, farming, animal harvesting and eating in general should be against the law, pets are a problem, EVs are an excellent mode of transportation, gas stoves are evil, heating and cooling your house is wrong, bugs are best, unproven shots for everyone, open your home to an illegal alien, it will be fun, and on and on. These people are insane. When are the normal people of America going to march on Washington and tell them to go to hell. Leave us alone!
28 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
Birddog 1/28/2024 11:34:36 AM (No. 1646129)
I wish Spencer(or anyone) would update this particular graph to current Observed/predicted trend lines...with indications about which models have been changed to reflect reality, when they were changed, how effective those changes were in actually correcting original misconceptions.
He says there are two models that very closely predict/show current observed data, both Russian. Name/claim those two models and explore what it is they got right, "make them Famous"
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/10/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/
12 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
franq 1/28/2024 11:50:52 AM (No. 1646145)
The litany #3 presents is accurate. We need a quantum shift.
Texas may be a start.
11 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
davew 1/28/2024 12:02:45 PM (No. 1646154)
The climate model projections are all dependent on a term called the climate sensitivity. This number determines the way temperature increases due to atmospheric factors, especially the reflectiveness of clouds. There is currently a major disagreement on what number to use. A recent paper used the UK Met Model to predict short term weather as a measure of how well it modelled the cloud physics. It showed a very high degree of agreement with actual weather changes. The Met model had a climate sensitivity factor of 5.0 which means we have about 20 years before the end of life as we know it. The noted climate change advocate, Jim Hanson, also published a paper based on the paleontological data showing a climate sensitivity of 4.8.
What this means is either the models are wrong as shown in the article, or they are so right that there is no time to meaningfully do anything about it. I'm betting the under on this, but we'll all have the answer shortly if I'm be too optomistic.
4 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
DVC 1/28/2024 12:17:02 PM (No. 1646169)
Of course they are. The climate is a chaotic system, and far, far too complex to predict accurately.
If you want some really USEFUL and scientific info....this video is a talk by a very senior physicist who shows that their predictions are NONSENSE, and the basic "cabability" of CO2 to affect planetary temperature is limited to no more than about 1 degree F by DOUBLING the CO2 from the current ~400 parts per million to even 800 parts per million.
And 1 degree F would be impossible to actually notice by anyone, since the daily variations in temp in any one location are often 20 to 40 times as large, and NORMAL..
Nice technical report on the basic physics of greenhouse gases and why CO2 levels going higher is irrelevant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXJ7UZjFDHU
6 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
DVC 1/28/2024 12:20:59 PM (No. 1646172)
Even the IPPC UN crooks have discovered that the maximum effect of DOUBLING the CO2 in the atmosphere is about 1 degree F, and disappointed.....they INVENTED all sorts of massive "feedback loops" from NO DATA that will magically make that negligable affect into a "global catastrophe" so you must give them a lot of money and power.
There is centuries of evidence that almost ALL "feedback loops" in real systems are NEGATIVE feedback, tending to dampen out the effects of the primary affector. Positive feedbacks are essentially non-existent....but this fairy tale is how the IPCC "predicts" massive effects from an insignificant trace gas.
LIES, fraud and corruption from the UN IPCC, like from all the rest of the UN.
9 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
MickTurn 1/28/2024 12:46:44 PM (No. 1646210)
Models use inputs (called Assumptions). Since Leftists are in charge of the Assumptions you can rest assured they are LIES and Damn LIES!
7 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
Starboard_side 1/28/2024 12:47:41 PM (No. 1646213)
That graph is incredible to see how wrong EVERY model was compared to actual observation of temperatures.
Maybe it's the same types of findings people in China, Russia, India (all highly educated with numerous numbers of scientists, engineers and data scientists) and many other countries have noticed but willing to watch the Western countries spend billions and trillions for no real good reason.
6 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
SkyKing1222 1/28/2024 12:59:33 PM (No. 1646225)
“If you don’t believe in God, you will believe in anything “
-Author unknown
For the rest of you “climate scientists”. Occam’s Razor, in this case, leads to the fact that the Sun is what causes temperature observations on earth.
9 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
DVC 1/28/2024 1:28:51 PM (No. 1646249)
#6 is correct. The basic physics proves that by itself it is IMPOSSIBLE for any amount of added CO2 to increase the global temp beyond 1 degree F. They need to INVENT 'climate sensitivity' or a "positive feedback loop". Even doubling the total CO2 to 800 parts per million only gives a very small effect. CO2 isn't a real factor in climate.
Essentially ALL feedbacks in the real world are NEGATIVE. That is if you change a variable which causes an effect in one direction, the system almost always has some 'feedback' that causes it to have LESS EFFECT than the basic calculations indicate. So, their "1 degree effect" is probably actually a 1/2 degree effect, way to small to be of any importance at all.
These liars have invented, from thin air, with ZERO PROOF....huge POSITIVE feedback, or amplification factors and called them "climate sensitivity". They claim that the climate is this ultra sensitive 'teeter totter' so that the slightest input one way or the other will massively tip it.
BULLSHIRT. They have zero proof of their invented "climate sensitivity" exists at all and there are essentially NO systems in the real world which have ANY positive feedbacks, let alone HUGE factors like 4 to 6 that they posit. They claim, without proof, that this 1 degree effect from CO2 - will somehow trigger a 4 to 6 degree effect due to this mythical "climate sensitivity".
Fraud, nonsense, lies and MONEY MAKING.
9 people like this.
Reply 13 - Posted by:
red1066 1/28/2024 2:43:58 PM (No. 1646292)
No s! We already know this.
1 person likes this.
Reply 14 - Posted by:
Jesuslover54 1/28/2024 3:38:51 PM (No. 1646330)
Which climate, the elites' climate or our climate?
1 person likes this.
Reply 15 - Posted by:
Kafka2 1/28/2024 8:36:40 PM (No. 1646441)
The years of data used to justify man-made global warm reflect what is equivalent to a second in the life of the planet. We know that in the past the climate has been warmer and cooler than it is today. That is to say climate cycles some of these cycles are thousands of years long. If you look at what happens in a ridiculously short period of time, you are bound to get it wrong. The math models are based guesses about what and how factors affect climate. The comparisons of the different models show that most of them are WAGs (Wild-Assed Guesses).
The reason they are all high is most of the money that finance these models are driven to support the green agenda. The true believers don’t want to be confused by facts.
1 person likes this.
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