Nate Silver: ‘My gut says’ Trump will win
Posted By: NorthernDog, 10/23/2024 1:44:56 PM
Veteran pollster Nate Silver said his “gut” right now is that former President Trump will win the election in less than two weeks, but he cautioned against putting faith in anyone’s gut feeling. Silver wrote in a guest essay published Wednesday by The New York Times that calling the race a 50-50 toss-up is the “only responsible forecast,” with polls showing the race as razor-tight in all seven key battleground states that are likely to determine the outcome. But, the 538 founder added, if people press him to give an answer on who is favored, he will say Trump. “My
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Economy U.S. economy added just 12,000
jobs in October, impacted by hurricanes,
Boeing strike 7 replies
jobs in October, impacted by hurricanes,
Boeing strike 7 replies
Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020 as the impacts of storms in the Southeast and a significant labor impasse dented the employment picture. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. In what had already been expected to be a downbeat report, October posted the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs
ARAPAHOE COUNTY, Colo. - Calling them the “Dinnertime Burglaries,” the Arapahoe County Sheriff’s Office says its searching for the crooks responsible for breaking into nearly a dozen “high-value” homes over the last eight months. Starting back in February and spanning most of the year, the sheriff’s office has noticed a crime pattern emerging. (Snip) Investigators believe the local pattern is just a piece of a much larger pattern happening nationwide. The crooks are believed to be part of multiple South American theft groups, the sheriff’s office said, not elaborating further. “Similar burglaries have occurred in Scottsdale, Arizona and the San
DETROIT — Ford Motor plans to halt production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning from mid-November until early next year to address bloated inventories and narrow losses on the pickup trucks. The automaker on Thursday confirmed the seven-week shutdown would occur at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in suburban Detroit from Nov. 18 until Jan. 6, including previously planned holiday downtime at the end of the year. “We continue to adjust production for an optimal mix of sales growth and profitability,” Ford said in an emailed statement. The roughly 730 hourly workers at the Michigan plant will be placed on temporary
The owner of New Jersey's largest newspaper says it will stop publishing a daily print version of the paper early next year, but its online version will continue. The Newark Morning Ledger Co. said the decision announced Wednesday was due to rising costs, decreasing circulation and reduced demand for print copies of the Star-Ledger. The company also said it will close its Montville production facility in February 2025, the same time the newspaper's print version will cease. The closing of that facility means another daily newspaper, The Jersey Journal, will cease publication on Feb. 1 after operating for 157 years.
In the final week of this 'dead heat' presidential election, I am reminded of Ronald Reagan's landslide 1980 victory. Then as now, President Jimmy Carter was polling neck-and-neck with his Republican challenger. A Gallup poll showed Carter up one percentage point nationally in late October. Only four days before the vote, a CBS News/New York Times survey showed the race to be just as close. Then the bottom dropped out of Carter's campaign - and Reagan won by nearly 10 points in the popular vote, and a staggering 489 to 49 in the Electoral College. I was a young campaign
Joe Rogan says he has shot down a podcast interview with Vice President Kamala Harris after her campaign made several demands — but insisted he hopes it can still happen. The mega-popular podcaster said the Democratic presidential nominee’s team had wanted him to travel to her and for their chat to last for only an hour. “They offered a date for Tuesday, but I would have had to travel to her and they only wanted to do an hour. I strongly feel the best way to do it is in the studio in Austin,” Rogan said in a statement on
WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump continue to be locked in a tight race in Minnesota, with few undecided voters left to boost either candidate. A new MinnPost-Embold Research poll showed Harris with a slight edge over Trump, 48%-45% in the state, a result that was virtually unchanged from Harris’ 49%-45% lead last month in a similar poll. Both results were within the poll’s 2.4 percentage point margin of error. One reason there’s no movement among Minnesota’s likely voters? Very few undecided voters remain this late in the campaign cycle; only 2% of the poll’s
Dems need to ramp up early voting efforts
to match GOP momentum in North Carolina: analyst 4 replies
to match GOP momentum in North Carolina: analyst 4 replies
The Democratic Party needs to get competitive with Republicans in battleground North Carolina to turn out more voters before Election Day, says a former political consultant from the Tar Heel State. (Snip) Mills, who worked on the direct mail team for the Democratic National Committee in 2004, identified two problems that Democrats need to address, quickly, to compete in the state: early voting and low African American voter turnout. "They [Republicans] seem to be on the right track right now. Democrats, on the other hand, need to boost their turnout. I mean, what we don't know is how people are
Michelle Obama blasts Trump in battleground
Michigan: ‘Why on earth is this race
even close?’ 11 replies
Michigan: ‘Why on earth is this race
even close?’ 11 replies
Former First Lady Michelle Obama hit the campaign trail for Vice President Harris in battleground Michigan on Saturday, blasting former President Trump and railing against what she cast as a double standard in the high-stakes presidential race. “I gotta ask myself: why on earth is this race even close? I lay awake at night wondering: what in the world is going on?” Obama told a raucous rally crowd in Kalamazoo, Mich. (Snip) Her searing remarks against the former president come as the polls show Harris and Trump neck-and-neck as Nov. 5 nears. Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The
Worried about Vice President Kamala Harris potentially facing a Republican-controlled Senate if she wins the White House, two Democratic strategists tell NewsNation senators are discussing an emergency plan to approve her Cabinet during a December Senate session. (Snip) To solve this issue for Democrats, strategists told NewsNation that the most extreme plan is for current Democratic President Joe Biden’s Cabinet to resign during his lame-duck Senate session. Biden would then appoint Harris’ picks, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer would then confirm the new Cabinet with his current 51 to 49 Senate. One source, however, conceded that this might not
ST. LOUIS – Less than two weeks away from the November general election, FOX 2 has released the results of our exclusive, new Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar poll, shedding light on where support for Missouri’s U.S. Senate race stands. (Snip) The new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll finds that Hawley leads in support among all five candidates. Poll results reveal 50.6% support for Hawley, 40.5% support for Kunce, 1.2% support for Kline, 0.6% support for W.C. Young and 0.2% support for Jared Young. Around 6.8% of poll respondents said they were “undecided” in the Missouri U.S. Senate race. Poll results indicate
The editor of the Los Angeles Times opinion section has resigned from her post after the newspaper’s owner prevented the editorial board from endorsing a candidate for president. Mariel Garza, editor of the illustrious newspaper’s editorials, resigned in protest of the decision by Patrick Soon-Shiong, owner of the Times, to block the editorial staff from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I am resigning because I want to make it clear that I am not okay with us being silent,” Garza told the Columbia Journalism Review in a phone interview with her former colleague Sewell Chan. “In dangerous times, honest people
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With the election just days away, people on both sides are on edge but things are looking very good for Trump.
This is causing widespread panic in Hollywood, one of the most reliably liberal parts of the country. Liberal celebrities have shown over and over again that they will vote Democrat no matter what is happening in the rest of the nation.
Wealthy celebs seem even more out of touch as they do not feel the economic pain that has burdened people everywhere else for over three years now.
If Hollywood is panicked, that is not a good sign for Harris.
Republican lawmakers demand answers from the Pentagon after military service members complained that they have not received enough absentee ballots to vote before Election Day. GOP Reps. Brian Mast (R-FL), Bill Huizenga (R-MI), and Mike Waltz (R-FL) sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin citing their “grave concern over deficiencies in the Defense Department’s protocols” for the U.S. military because they said the absentee ballot stockpile has been “depleted and had not been replenished.”
“Our nation’s brave men and women in uniform brought to our attention that there has been inadequate education at the administrative level
Update (1836ET): After the MSM spent the day in histrionics peddling the falsehood that Trump said Liz Cheney should face a firing squad, - when he was simply calling her a chickenhawk - CNN panelist Jonah Goldberg offered a mea culpa, and has retracted his claim that Trump called for Cheney's execution.
"This morning on CNN I referred to Trump’s “rifles” quote as him advocating a 'firing squad' for Liz Cheney," said Goldberg. "
Dick Cheney did it. Arnold Schwarzenegger did it. Adam Kinzinger did it, of course. So did Jeff Flake. Mike Pence walked right up to the edge but ultimately declined to take the plunge, but even George W. Bush’s daughter, Barbara Pierce Bush, and Dick Cheney’s notorious daughter Liz (that is, former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Jan. 6) jumped right in. And now Liz Cheney is calling upon the biggest prize of all, former President George W. Bush, to join the party for the uniparty and endorse Kamala Harris for president.
Fox News reported late Friday night that Liz made her plea on The New Yorker Radio Hour,
Former Rep. Liz Cheney is calling on former President George W. Bush to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I can’t explain why George W. Bush hasn’t spoken out but I think it’s time, and I wish that he would,” Cheney said on The New Yorker’s Radio Hour. Pressure has been mounting on Bush to support the Democratic presidential nominee in recent weeks as several people close to the 43rd president have backed Harris. In addition to Cheney, her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, endorsed the Democrat.
"In our nation's 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,”
New York Governor Kathy Hochul recently appeared on MSNBC and said that if you vote Republican, you’re anti-woman and anti-American.
It has been amazing in this election cycle, how Democrats have become so comfortable insulting and degrading their fellow Americans for the crime of disagreeing with them.
Their deranged rhetoric makes them look very desperate, like they know they’re losing.
New York Republican Lee Zeldin posted the video on Twitter/X: (X Video)
Joe Biden will no longer be campaigning for Kamala Harris after he disastrously called half of all Americans “garbage.”
Biden went viral for insulting Trump supporters and calling them “garbage” while on a video call campaigning to Hispanic voters. (X Video)
The blunder was so bad that the White House was ordered to alter the transcript by the president himself.
The edited transcript makes it appear that Biden was only insulting comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who has faced fallout for a joke about Puerto Rico being covered in garbage during Trump’s Madison Square Garden event.
Will it Really be a Cliffhanger?
23 replies
I think it wise to just vote and ignore the polls and pundits, many of whom are dealing from the bottom of the deck and bluffing. I’d also ignore those doomsters who claim on the basis of the 2020 election that it will be stolen. Sure, as I note below, there has been and will be a lot of cheating, but the Republicans are getting better at monitoring it and reducing it. Sure, the press is lying again, but as I show below, the legacy media has blown its credibility and alternate content providers are capturing audiences away from them.
A shocking new poll claims Vice President Harris is leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by three points in reliably conservative Iowa.
The final survey of the 2024 race for the White House from the famed Des Moines Register newspaper puts the Democratic nominee at 47% over Trump at 44%, in what one pollster described as a “stunning reversal” for the Republican. A shocking new poll claims Vice President Harris is leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by three points in reliably conservative Iowa.
The final survey of the 2024 race for the White House from the famed Des Moines Register newspaper puts the Democratic nominee at 47% over Trump at 44%,
Harris Hate Brigade: Smokey Robinson Disses
Trump-Voting Women & Minorities in Kamala Endorsement 22 replies
Trump-Voting Women & Minorities in Kamala Endorsement 22 replies
R&B legend Smokey Robinson dissed women and minorities who are voting for former President Donald Trump in a video in which he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. “Wake up,” the singer proclaimed.
“I really don’t understand how any person of color or any woman could find it in their hearts to vote for Donald Trump,” Robinson declared in a video posted to his social media on Thursday.
“I’ve never felt the need to campaign publicly until now,” the “The Tears Of A Clown” singer said. “This is the most important election of my lifetime, and as far as I’m concerned, it’s a choice between good and evil.”
This is what happens when Trump supporters are labeled “garbage,” “Nazis,” and “Fascists” by Democrat leaders and their media stenographers.
A violent leftist was arrested for beating a Trump supporter at a Bath, New York, grocery store on Friday.
60-year-old Robert Yott was arrested on Friday after he became aggressive and confronted a Trump supporter wearing a ‘Trump 2024’ hat at Tops Friendly Markets.
According to police, Yott repeatedly punched the Trump supporter in the face and broke his teeth.
WETM reported:
A Bath man is facing charges after he allegedly attacked a stranger in a grocery store for wearing a Trump hat.
WATCH: Deranged Kamala Harris Supporter
Loses Her Mind, Accosts Black Trump Supporter
in Coffee Shop 20 replies
Loses Her Mind, Accosts Black Trump Supporter
in Coffee Shop 20 replies
Emotions continue to run high as election day rapidly approaches. A coffee shop in Alexandria, VA, was the scene of the latest example when a black, female Trump supporter named Annetta Catchings found herself facing off against a deranged Kamala Harris supporter.
Part of the confrontation was caught on video, showing a white woman in a pink shirt (and self-described Democrat) accosting Catchings, including calling her "uneducated." [Tweet, video]
I won't even attempt to transcribe everything that was said given they are shouting over each other, but at one point, you can hear the Harris supporter say, "I'm shocked, you are all uneducated women,"
Comments:
For the record he predicts Trump wins, but then qualifies his remarks to assuage hyper-sensitive liberals. In the end he states it may not even be close.