How to detect a crappy poll
Posted By: Hazymac, 10/27/2022 1:33:06 PM
I frequently comment on podcasts and elsewhere about some of the methodological problems with current opinion polling, but rather than get into the arcana of sampling difficulties, statistical weighting, question design, etc., let me suggest a simpler method of instantly detecting a crappy poll: see if it’s from NBC News. The latest NBC News poll just out finds that 45 percent of voters approve of Joe Biden’s performance in office, while 47% of registered voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want a Republican-controlled Congress. The numbers tilt a bit closer to other polls showing much wider Republican margins when the domain moves from registered voters
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Transgendering Language
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It out-herods Herod: pray you, avoid it. —Hamlet (III,ii)
As has become flagrantly obvious over the years, the political left and its myrmidons in the media, medical industry, social agencies, public libraries, and school system have become slickly adept at framing the cultural debate between conservatives and “progressives” by mutilating discourse, fudging long-accepted distinctions, and decoupling terms from their culturally ascribed referents. What was understood for centuries and millennia as decency becomes indecency, good becomes bad, virtue becomes vice, settled tradition becomes feral violence, family and marriage become barbarism and bondage (the feminist mantra), and so on. Conversely, what is destructive of customary order becomes enlightened transformation.
Ballot harvesting, according to the California Democrats who'd like to take it national, is an innocent practice where union members and activists, some of them illegally present in the country, do voters the favor, see, of helping voters fill out their ballots and then collecting those ballots for them so that they need never go to the polls. They call it "a new service." It's part of their "make every vote count" agenda, and who could be against that?
But out in Florida, where there's still some semblance of objectivity, investigators found another story. (Snip) The incident had every nightmare scenario that could happen with a ballot-harvesting operation
With polls showing his Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race rival Dr. Mehmet Oz taking a slight lead after his train wreck debate performance last week, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman posted a photo Saturday of a campaign sign on fire, claiming it happened Friday night at a farm in “deep red Lawrence County”. Apparently trying to ride the wave of outrage over the attack on Paul Pelosi, Fetterman used the photo to decry political violence and then posted a fundraising pitch:
“This happened last night on a farm in deep red Lawrence County. There is no place for violence and intimidation in politics. Our campaign is about bringing people together and rejecting hate
At this point, it would save everyone time if Democrats could simply point to a policy agenda item that isn’t going to save democracy — if such a thing exists.
If Republicans vote, they are killing democracy. If they don’t vote, they are killing democracy. The only way to “save democracy,” writes The Washington Post’s Max Boot, is to empower one-party rule — a position that probably sounds counterintuitive to anyone with a middle-school education. “Now you need to vote to literally save democracy once again,” contends President Joe Biden, or we will lose our “fundamental rights and freedoms like the right to choose,
The weather outside is frightful, but the irony is so delightful. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who became famous during the COVID-19 pandemic for saying that unvaccinated people would be second-class citizens in her country, went to study “climate change” in Antarctica — where the freezing weather caused her plane to break down.
Ardern was visiting her country’s Scott Base in Antarctica to “highlight” supposed “climate change” and mark the Base’s 65th anniversary, according to Reuters. “Cooperation in Antarctica and in the Antarctic Treaty System is more important than ever as we tackle the crises of climate change and biodiversity loss,” Ardern stated.
Two men claiming they were Twitter data engineers recently let go under Elon Musk's reign may have been lying to the media.
The potential pranksters were spotted outside Twitter's San Francisco office Friday carrying cardboard boxes just a day after Musk took control of Twitter for the hefty ticket price of $44 billion and ousted its top executives.
One of the alleged employees identified themselves as a software engineer named "Rahul Ligma" during an interview with reporters outside, according to the Verge. However, the outlet confirmed that an employee by that name was not in Twitter’s Slack or email system and that there is no employee by that name
TOPLINE Facebook parent Meta Platforms reported earnings Wednesday that fell short of expectations, pummeling the company's stock in after hours trading as the social media giant with metaverse ambitions scrambles to cut costs amid advertising headwinds spurred by concerns about the global economy. KEY FACTS
Meta reported net income of $4.4 billion, or $1.64 per share, cratering 49% year over year and falling short of expectations for $1.89 per share; revenue of $27.7 billion fared slightly better than the $27.4 billion analysts were forecasting, but down 4% from one year ago.
The company also said its revenue this quarter would fall between $30 billion and $32.5 billion—toward the lower end
How to detect a crappy poll
10 replies
I frequently comment on podcasts and elsewhere about some of the methodological problems with current opinion polling, but rather than get into the arcana of sampling difficulties, statistical weighting, question design, etc., let me suggest a simpler method of instantly detecting a crappy poll: see if it’s from NBC News.
The latest NBC News poll just out finds that 45 percent of voters approve of Joe Biden’s performance in office, while 47% of registered voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want a Republican-controlled Congress. The numbers tilt a bit closer to other polls showing much wider Republican margins when the domain moves from registered voters
In a couple of weeks, John Fetterman will be back home in Braddock, Penn., in his loft apartment, playing with his kids and continuing to recover from what we now know was a devastating stroke. It’s what he should have been doing since he suffered the stroke in May.
But because he and his campaign hid the severity of his condition from the media, his party, and especially his opponent, Mehmet Oz, it came as a shock to see the 49-year-old giant of a man in such a confused state.
Whether it was due to hubris or simple denial of reality, Fetterman’s vulnerabilities were exposed for all to see.
Watch the full question, and then watch the full answer.
It feels politically and medically unethical to have Fetterman run for office right now. If the media can't cover this very serious issue after the debate, they are truly hopeless. pic.twitter.com/9ByAZiipA7
— Steve Krakauer (@SteveKrak) October 26, 2022
The media could have pushed for the truth after Lt. Gov Fetterman’s stroke, instead, it continued to favor the woke Frankenstein because he had all the left views.
As the campaign continued, it doubled down on the cover-ups because the media was now stuck with a candidate that it was beginning to realize was broken, but was now the standard bearer of its party.
Well, That Was Weird
8 replies
John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz are contesting for the Pennsylvania Senate seat to be vacated by Republican Pat Toomey. It’s a marquee matchup that has taken on horror-movie elements as Democrats and their media adjunct seek to push Fetterman over the finish line. Hobbled by the aftereffects of a severe stroke, Fetterman is obviously unfit for high office. He is fit for the doctor’s office.
They met last night for their one and only debate preceding the election. I watched it live on NewsNation. I discovered that NewsNation is carried on channel 810 of our cable feed and that it is the current home of Chris Cuomo, whose show followed
It’s been some years since Google decided to bury my search results somewhere on Page 8. A lot of my articles have become outright inaccessible even when searched for in the most specific possible ways. This is a commonplace experience among conservatives.
But it’s also happening to midterm candidates in an outrageous fashion. "MRC Free Speech America has analyzed Google, Bing and DuckDuckGo search results for the 12 Senate races identified by RealClearPolitics as the most important to watch. Our researchers caught Google burying 10 of 12 Senate Republican Party candidates’ campaign websites while highlighting their opponents campaign sites in organic search results. This stands in stark contrast
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Barack Obama, in Georgia, calls Herschel
Walker a ‘celebrity who wants to be
a politician’ 49 replies
Walker a ‘celebrity who wants to be
a politician’ 49 replies
COLLEGE PARK, GA – Former President Barack Obama repeatedly took aim at Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia who’s challenging Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in a crucial battleground state Senate showdown.
The former president, making his return to the campaign trail on behalf of fellow Democrats with just a week and a half to go until Election Day, criticized Walker, the former college and professional football star and first-time candidate, as "a celebrity to who wants to be a politician."
Obama, who remains the most popular person in the Democratic Party nearly six years after he left the White House, is trying to perform some last-minute political magic
Paul Pelosi reportedly told 911 dispatch that the individual who allegedly attacked him with a hammer in his home “is a friend,” according to a police dispatch call early Friday morning.
We received some links to the audio calls that were made to police regarding the incident. The suspect supposedly said he was waiting for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in the home. “RP” references Paul Pelosi.
Emergency dispatch officials provided the police officers with an address on the 2600 block of Broadway street in San Francisco’s Pacific Heights neighborhood, according to a dispatch call that took place around 2:28 a.m. on Friday.
Reporter Caught on Hot Mic Confirming
Media Not Telling Truth About Pelosi Attack (Video) 39 replies
Media Not Telling Truth About Pelosi Attack (Video) 39 replies
Paul Pelosi, the husband of Nancy Pelosi, was hospitalized after being attacked in his home (the House Speaker was not there) by a man reported to be a former Castro nudist and hemp jewelry maker named David Depape. That doesn’t sound very “MAGA” but the lib media will no doubt try and make the attacker into a Trump fan one way or another.
There’s something really weird about this Paul Pelosi attack story. Nothing is adding up.
An assailant identified as David Depape reportedly attacked Paul Pelosi, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, with a hammer at the couple’s home in San Francisco early Friday morning.
Depape, 42, is a prominent nudist activist and hemp jewelry maker from Berkeley, and a member of the Green Party, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. (snip)
“My firm served a lawsuit against Paul Pelosi one time in SF after attempting to serve at other residences,” tweeted civil rights attorney Harmeet Dhillon. “They weren’t home, but staff were, and multiple law enforcement officers were on the perimeter. Break-in is odd given this level of security.”
The San Francisco Police Department confirmed during a press conference on Friday evening that Paul Pelosi, husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was somehow able to call 911 before being attacked with a hammer, allowing dispatch to respond.
Police Chief William Scott said when officers arrived Paul Pelosi and the attacker were standing in the entryway to the home, each holding onto the hammer.
Confirmation that Paul Pelosi made a 911 call came after media reports said he had secretly called 911 so that the intruder would not know and spoke in a way that would alert the dispatcher to what was happening without giving himself away.
As I reported previously, the desperate Democrats pulled out Barack Obama to help them in their flagging races in Georgia. Stacey Abrams is way behind Gov. Brian Kemp in a rematch for Georgia governor and Herschel Walker was up five points on Raphael Warnock in the most recent poll from Rasmussen.
Obama aimed at Herschel Walker in a bizarre attack, saying Walker was a great football player, but what did he have to offer as a candidate? Obama made an analogy, saying you wouldn’t want him to fly the plane if you needed to fly. He also claimed Walker was a “celebrity who wants to be a politician.”
I regret to inform the meme makers, the narrative builders, and all those involved in the herculean effort to make Paul Pelosi’s attack suspect into a stand-in for the right-wing boogeyman, the after-party has been canceled. The pathetic human known as David DePape was, until recently, a public backer of Black Lives Matter and LGBTQ causes. At least, that’s what we can surmise by surveying his “home” in Berkeley. DePape had a “Black Lives Matter” sign in the window and an LGBTQ rainbow flag, emblazoned with a marijuana symbol, hanging from a tree outside his house.
Author Michael Schellenberger describes the scene outside DePape’s residence and took a dive
California truck drivers and environmental groups presented their concerns about a proposal under consideration by state air regulators to phase out the sale of medium and heavy-duty gas-powered vehicles within the next 20 years. The California Air Resources Board held its first public hearing this week to receive feedback from the public on the proposal, which the board will likely consider in Spring 2023.
Beard – Beard is an American slang term describing a person who is used, knowingly or unknowingly, as a date, romantic partner (boyfriend or girlfriend), or spouse either to conceal infidelity or to conceal one’s sexual orientation.
The incident at the Pelosi house on early Friday morning is still puzzling at best. There now are more questions than answers.
The police didn’t share how David DePape entered the house in their first press conference. They did mention that they charged him with burglary but that was it.
It’s almost time for the royals to read it and weep.
Prince Harry’s hotly anticipated memoir is set to hit the shelves Jan. 10 — and his anxiety-riddled Royal Family is praying he does them ‘write’, sources said this week.
The duty-ditching duke’s tell-all, titled “Spare,” is expected to make an explosive splash and his relatives are reportedly “hugely nervous” about a tome they consider a “time bomb.”
“The consequences of this will be far-reaching and may be highly destructive,” royal author Richard Fitzwilliams told the Daily Mail on Thursday.
Paul Pelosi reportedly told 911 dispatch that the individual who allegedly attacked him with a hammer in his home “is a friend,” according to a police dispatch call early Friday morning.
The alleged intruder reportedly attacked Paul Pelosi with a hammer, which forced him to undergo emergency surgery for his injuries. Officers later identified 42-year-old Berkeley resident David DePape as Pelosi’s attacker. DePape was reportedly wearing only underwear when officers arrived on the scene. He was taken into custody and will be charged with multiple felonies, including attempted murder, San Francisco district attorney Brooke Jenkins announced.
The Biden administration is considering delaying promised military aid to Saudi Arabia in response to the Gulf country's decision to slash oil production, sources told NBC News. It could include shipments of Patriot MIM-104E guided ballistic missiles, which Saudi Arabia has a contract to purchase 300 of from the US. The Saudis have Patriot launch systems, but need the missiles to defend against attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen, per the report. Sources told NBC that some military officials support the idea, while others argue that the military relationship between the two countries should be kept separate from the oil