A Mitigation Disaster
American Spectator,
by
David Catron
Original Article
Posted By: Garnet,
4/6/2020 5:43:33 AM
The most prominent physicians on the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci, have generally managed to outmaneuver members of the media who have attempted to inveigle them into undercutting the President by endorsing a nationwide lockdown. Birx insists that Trump trusts the American people to follow current mitigation strategies, and Fauci has maintained a similarly diplomatic position. The latter, however, was finally duped into saying something stupid last Thursday during a Today Show interview when asked if he agreed with Surgeon General Jerome Adams that recently released White House coronavirus guidelines should be interpreted as a national stay-at-home order:
Reply 1 - Posted by:
MissGrits 4/6/2020 6:55:24 AM (No. 370141)
Trump needs to get rid of that lil pest and get back to governing by his gut. We have seen enough of the political shenanigans to know we are being had. I’m sure that is not lost on the president!
24 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
IowaDad 4/6/2020 7:24:14 AM (No. 370151)
The intent of stay-at-home policy is to prevent infection and death by COVID-19. It is likely to efficacious and save lives. The lives that are “saved” are predominantly of elderly people. So each life saved may add about a thousand person-days (about three years) of useful life.
But restricting movement degrades our lives. We can estimate that a healthy person being confined degrades the value of each day by 30%, so that each month of confinement reduces our valuable days by ten. Thus, restricting the movement of 50 people for two months degrades their lives by ~1,000 person-days. This is roughly the equal of saving one life. So 50 stay-at-homes has the same negative value as one life lost.
When applied to the United States with a population of 330 million people, we have to save 6.6 million lives for the stay-at-home policy to break even. The stay-at-home policy may be unproductive if the epidemic if unrestrained can kill only 2 million seniors.
There -- will Biden listen to me?
1 person likes this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
jeffkinnh 4/6/2020 8:11:48 AM (No. 370187)
The key thing required to "get back to work" is a rigorous testing program. No, it won't be perfect. Some will test negative and yet develop and pass on the virus. However, testing and then ISOLATING those who are infected WILL bend the curve down. We need LOTS of testing sites and fast results. We are ramping up fast and have done more testing than anyone else but NOT more testing per million population. We need to get there fast. That will probably take 2 - 3 weeks.
We can start by intelligent screening. "Have you been tested and shown negative","To the best of your knowledge, have you been exposed to anyone with the virus?", "Have you limited your traveling?", "Have you been wearing a mask when you have gone out?", etc. Smart companies may encourage working from home for those who can be effective doing that. They should still discourage group meetings and try to maintain social distancing and use of masks for the immediate future. Those who have risk factors may need special consideration. People who are extremely worried about catching the virus can't be forced to work. People who may have elderly or health compromised people at home may not be able to work. Sick people GO HOME.
The reality is, for various reasons, we were NOT prepared for this. We need to build to a level that we can reasonably contain the impact. However, as the article correctly says, a crippled economy equals crushing devastation and deaths of PEOPLE all by itself. The economy is not big companies. It is 160 million PEOPLE trying to support their lives and we can't just shut that down for very long without enormous consequence.
9 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
msjena 4/6/2020 8:53:14 AM (No. 370223)
Private businesses can easily require testing and temperature checks for their employees. Make masks more readily available. Let restaurants and small service businesses--hair salons, manicurists, fitness studios, etc. open up again. The quarantine should only be for the sick. Isn't that what was done with TB and other infectious diseases of the past?
10 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
oldmagnolia 4/6/2020 9:04:06 AM (No. 370237)
These lab rats should not be in any show period.
2 people like this.
People who test positive for the antibody should be allowed to go back to work.
But then healthy people will be trying to get exposed and get it over with, so they can get back to bringing home their paycheck.
(I don't trust either of those two doctors, based on who they have posed for pictures with in the past.)
5 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
sanspeur 4/6/2020 9:31:23 AM (No. 370270)
i fear PDJT is getting list in the logistics . As a construction guy he is focusing in getting equipment to where it has to be .. ppe , ventilators, beds . But once he sees the direction & numbers let a lesser luminary do the talking . PDJT is to give , speak of the next steps .reopening !
2 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
Zarin 4/6/2020 10:19:33 AM (No. 370319)
When asked to mandate SAH federally - the President replied that he believes in the Constitution and not all states are face the same situations
5 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
HotRod 4/6/2020 10:54:29 AM (No. 370370)
There are many business' that can operate now, using modified procedures, so let them work. On the other hand, there are business' that can't accommodate changes, such as massage parlors, and newspaper distribution. Shut them down!
0 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
bighambone 4/6/2020 11:47:26 AM (No. 370439)
The USA is lucky that the current President understands that both the medical and economic aspects of the ongoing pandemic and will reopen the country economically as soon as he believes that it is save to do so.
3 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
couchguy 4/6/2020 1:07:30 PM (No. 370567)
Trump chose Dr Doom and Birx precisely because he knew they would be the biggest pain in the butts with the biggest microphones. They would have been sniping at him from the WHO, CDC or Gates foundation. Easier to put them in the spotlight and let them discredit themselves.
4 people like this.
Below, you will find ...
Most Recent Articles posted by "Garnet"
and
Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)