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The Coming Real Estate Hyperpocalypse:
All YOUR Fault!

National Review Online, by Tim Cavanaugh

Original Article

Posted By:StormCnter, 4/19/2014 4:52:21 AM

Some good folks are pig-biting mad about my recent article noting that the rate of foreclosures has dropped dramatically as a result of the reinflation of the real estate market.(Snip for tweet)Some of the vituperation is coming from the usual gang of housing justice fairness activists incensed that anybody (let alone a majority of homeowners and experts) would oppose the practice of giving public assistance to people who borrowed money with no intention of paying it back. But a lot of the abuse stems from a sentiment I agree with — that declaring victory on mortgage defaults means you have

      


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Reply 1 - Posted by: ladychatalie, 4/19/2014 5:17:24 AM     (No. 9816550)

ummm… I thought the housing market crashed in August 2008, not 2006 as this article says twice. I must have missed the earlier memo.

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Reply 2 - Posted by: StormCnter, 4/19/2014 5:27:51 AM     (No. 9816552)

This is from a WSJ article from April, 2009:
The price decline started in 2006. Then policies designed to promote the American dream instead produced a nightmare. Trillions of dollars of mortgages, written to buyers with slender equity, started a wave of delinquencies and defaults. Borrowers´ losses were limited to their small down payments; hence, the lion´s share of the losses was transmitted into the financial system and it collapsed.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123897612802791281


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Reply 3 - Posted by: Safari Man, 4/19/2014 7:47:52 AM     (No. 9816613)

Like many of you, I long for the second coming of the real estate crash

I am definitely waiting. I have been trying to buy a house in a specific market for over a year. The prices keep going up, but almost nothing is selling. I am looking at the recent sales and the asking prices are way out of line with actual sales (so few sales in this area that some are a couple years old). But sellers and realtors are too proud of their houses and would rather sit on empty properties than take a reasonable offer. I have been rejected numerous times fro very reasonable cash offers. I am confident I will get the last laugh. Just not sure when.


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Reply 4 - Posted by: Fiesta del sol, 4/19/2014 9:25:38 AM     (No. 9816724)

#3, I saw the same quote. But I wonder where this so called recovery is. Stupidly, I bought a modest home within my budget, and the price hasn´t gone down, but it hasn´t gone up either, and I have owned it for ten years. Homes here haven´t exactly been selling either.

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Reply 5 - Posted by: MDConservative, 4/19/2014 10:11:43 AM     (No. 9816771)

Thre is a snowball still rolling downhill around here. Walking around my neighborhood, one frequently sees a new empty house that will sit for many months before any activity is noted. The banks here are sitting on loads of housing. In some cases it cannot be moved as ownership of the mortgage is impossible to trace. I have a nephew in Florida who hasn´t paid a mortgage payment in years, but does pay his taxes. He has yet to get more than a reminder to pay from the servicer. If the time comes, he´ll walk away.

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Reply 6 - Posted by: Hazymac, 4/19/2014 11:18:21 AM     (No. 9816861)

The second replier is quite correct. The real estate bubble, which had been slowly then rapidly inflating since the Clinton Administration in the early ´90s put enforcement teeth into the Carter era Community Reinvestment Act, reached its maximum extent in 2006, when real estate prices were at their most ridiculous. In my neighborhood residences that were selling for, say, $60-120K between 1985 and 2000, had soared to $200-350K by 2006.

I had neighbors who had jumped aboard the condo- and house-flipping train, expecting their investments to gain $10K per month. between 2003 and 2006, that´s what they did. Then with real estate prices at silly levels, air started hissing out of the balloon. From 2005-2013 I was president of my neighborhood association, and had a ringside seat to the carnage that I knew was coming. I warned the flippers that when the bubble inevitably burst, they would be in Chapter 13 bankruptcy when the values of their properties fell back to reasonable levels.

There were many culprits. Dodd, Frank, Schumer, and Bill Clinton chiefest among them. (GWB actually warned lending institutions and Fannie and Freddie, over and over, to tighten their standards, but those who wanted to put every family in their own home wouldn´t listen.) I believe that the timing of the bubble explosion (September 2008) was delayed by big political players until just before the election to ensure that Obama would win, and that Bush would get the blame. Worked like a charm, didn´t it?


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Reply 7 - Posted by: Hazymac, 4/19/2014 11:31:39 AM     (No. 9816883)

(continued from above)
Values around here fell back to what they´d been circa 1985. In one case a foreclosed unit to my east that had sold for $325K in 2006 was sold at a courthouse auction for $36K to an alert investor, who then turned around and sold it for $75K. Obama has been humoring the same community organizer idiots who caused the problem before. We´re in another bubble now, although it has a long way to go before it gets as distended as in 2006. The crash of 2008 will happen again, wiping out another $15 trillion or more of equity. Some people never learn.

One other thing: When interest rates are finally allowed to rise back to historical rates (5-6%), which has to happen sooner or later, that rise will exert severe downward pressure on housing and autos. It will also add hundreds of billions in interest costs to the burgeoning national debt. Future generations are going to want to dig up our profligate generation from their eternal dirt naps and kill them all over again when the bill comes due. America will one day be a poor nation again.

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Reply 8 - Posted by: TXknitter, 4/19/2014 2:02:56 PM     (No. 9817056)

#3, you are a wise man. The prices have risen to ridiculous levels in a particular area near Mt. Rainier, WA. Sellers living in dreamland. Thanks to the internet, buyers know just as much about a property (the REAL scoop) or more than the realtor often shares. Repackaged junk that didn´t sell in its first two years on the market still isn´t selling now. The difference is the seller has increased the price. The Seattle media helps fan the myths with selected stories on how many homes are selling. Well, facts are something else again. Smart investors and buyers increasingly doing what you are doing.

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Reply 9 - Posted by: craige, 4/19/2014 2:54:05 PM     (No. 9817088)

Glad to see someone else putting the blame of Frank and Dodd.

Economic recovery:

2013 GNP was 17.37 Trillion dollars.

Adjusted to 2008 dollars, that´s 15.18 Trillion dollars.

2008 GNP was 14.67 Trillion dollars.

Real growth was 3.4% over 5 years.
That´s 2/3´s of 1 percent per year.

Welcome to the ´New Normal´.


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