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The Official Forecast of the U.S.
Government Never Saw This Winter Coming

Bloomberg Business Week, by Peter Coy

Original Article

Posted By:FlyRight, 2/20/2014 8:05:44 AM

Surprised by how tough this winter has been? You’re in good company: Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states. This graphic shows just how wrong the official forecast of the U.S. government was: The big red blotch in the top map represents parts of the country in which the Climate Prediction Center forecast above-average temperatures. The frigid-looking blue blotch in the bottom “verification” map shows areas where temperatures turned out to

      


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Reply 1 - Posted by: tren9, 2/20/2014 8:27:19 AM     (No. 9739507)

In fairness, the weather people do a fairly good job of predicting weather 8 to 12 hours out. [But then, so do I.]

As somebody once said, predicting is difficult, especially when you are predicting the future.

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Reply 2 - Posted by: Clinger, 2/20/2014 8:27:50 AM     (No. 9739508)

But they can tell us what´s going to happen 20 years from now.

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Reply 3 - Posted by: country boy, 2/20/2014 8:31:23 AM     (No. 9739516)

I bought a new snow plow this past August. Wasn´t that hard to figure out.

Maybe I should be President.

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Reply 4 - Posted by: GreatGreyhounds, 2/20/2014 8:34:11 AM     (No. 9739519)

Heck, they can´t even predict the past with their climate change models...

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Reply 5 - Posted by: berthabutt, 2/20/2014 8:44:07 AM     (No. 9739534)

Probably couldn´t find the Almanac in the PC requisite 200+ languages, so nobody read it.

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Reply 6 - Posted by: Udanja99, 2/20/2014 8:50:03 AM     (No. 9739540)

I live on a small farm 45 miles NW of DC. In the spring and summer of 2009 we had unusually cool and wet weather. We barely used our air conditioning and we wore sweaters to watch the July 4th fireworks. The following winter was brutal - we measured 94 inches of snow Dec.- March. In Virginia!

Last spring and summer were unusually cool and wet despite a few scorcher days mid summer. I told my husband that we were in for another bad winter, based solely on the info related above. Cool and rainy spring and summer continues into cold and snowy winter.

I´m nobody with no higher education in meteorology or any other science. If I can figure it out, why can´t the brilliant scientists? Maybe because I don´t have an AGW agenda?

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Reply 7 - Posted by: mickturn, 2/20/2014 9:53:50 AM     (No. 9739626)

Ergo, if they couldn´t see the freight train coming down the track how are they able to ´predict´ Global Glarming years ahead? Simple Answer, they can´t and all the Global Glarming is pure political BS.

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Reply 8 - Posted by: Felixcat, 2/20/2014 9:59:37 AM     (No. 9739639)

I´m not too far from poste #6 - about 50 miles west of DC. In the late summer/early fall in 2009 I saw hundreds of wooly bear caterpillars and they were black. And that was a winter (2009-2010) for the record books.

This past summer/fall, not as many caterpillars, but again, black in color.

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Reply 9 - Posted by: yuban, 2/20/2014 10:01:12 AM     (No. 9739644)

The farmers Almanac said we would be cold and dry. We live in N. Calif and they were correct.

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Reply 10 - Posted by: brianod1, 2/20/2014 10:04:39 AM     (No. 9739656)



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Reply 11 - Posted by: brianod1, 2/20/2014 10:05:20 AM     (No. 9739659)

The Farmer´s Almanac was eerily prescient about this winter.

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Reply 12 - Posted by: BigGeorgeTX, 2/20/2014 10:29:42 AM     (No. 9739701)

The Old Farmer´s Almanac is more reliable on long range weather forecasting than the US Government. All the fancy equipment helps in the short term forecasting, but anything beyond that is just guessing.

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Reply 13 - Posted by: Razorgirl, 2/20/2014 11:05:05 AM     (No. 9739757)

Everything I needed to know about the coming winter I learned from the Farmers Almanac purchased for less than $5 at my local Tractor´s Supply, the heavier coats on my horses and all the persimmon seeds had spoons.

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Reply 14 - Posted by: Boneshaker, 2/20/2014 11:15:34 AM     (No. 9739775)

"Snowy Owls migrating South Due To Cold Winter."

Even the birds are smarter than American Politicians.

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Reply 15 - Posted by: wilarrbie, 2/20/2014 11:22:32 AM     (No. 9739784)

Had the OFFICIALS been a little more honest - I suspect they bias, favor and err towards the official position of global warming theory - then perhaps those who produce and deliver propane and other products that warm us, would have been better prepared. As is, we are seeing prices TRIPLED because instead of being PREPARED - our heating fuels are in short supply. But they hang on to that GW theory - at any and all costs.

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Reply 16 - Posted by: norcalvet, 2/20/2014 11:36:28 AM     (No. 9739798)

Guess I should have bought the Almanac, I went to the online version, and it said we would have near normal rain fall, and that sure hasn´t happened. We are in Northern California also.

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Reply 17 - Posted by: Attercliffe, 2/20/2014 12:30:03 PM     (No. 9739877)

Many thanks for the "walk down Memory Lane," #8. Dad always predicted winter via the number of berries on the hollies and other winter fruiting trees, the thickness of the evergreens, the woolly bear coats, and other signs I can´t remember.

Thinking of black woolly bears reminds me that our long-haired cat, who looks like a lynx-point Himalayan, except with thinner legs, was particularly dark brown on her "points" this year. Must watch for that next fall.

I do think most weather professionals factored in "global warming."

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