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Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst)
in the 2012 Presidential Race
New York Times, by Nate Silver
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Original Article
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Posted By:congaree53, 11/11/2012 9:15:12 AM
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| As Americans’ modes of communication change, the techniques that produce the most accurate polls seems to be changing as well. In last Tuesday’s presidential election, a number of polling firms that conduct their surveys online had strong results. Some telephone polls also performed well. But others, especially those that called only landlines or took other methodological shortcuts, performed poorly and showed a more Republican-leaning electorate than the one that actually turned out.
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Comments:
Both Rasmussen and Gallup had a "Dewey Beats Truman, moment.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
wendybird, 11/11/2012 9:28:08 AM (No. 9006823)
Which polls predicted the 140% of the population turnout in Florida? That would be more interesting.
http://www.slcelections.com/Pdf%20Docs/2012%20General/GEMS%20SOVC%20REPORT.pdf
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Reply 2 - Posted by:
lakerman1, 11/11/2012 9:40:40 AM (No. 9006853)
Voter fraud was subtle, but existed, in 2012. And the negro church vans run to the polls had a significant impact on a close election.
The symbol for the president zero second term is that toothless black woman from cleveland, on that video that went viral.
The founders would have wept.
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Reply 3 - Posted by:
PageTurner, 11/11/2012 10:49:50 AM (No. 9007013)
Remember this thread? Remember how Mike Flynn wrote that IBD was in bed with Obama with its undoutedly biased leftwingpolls? And how readers fretted that IBD was damaging its brand name with these dreadful polls too?
http://lucianne.com/thread/?artnum=708171
Wonder what Mike Flynn thinks now.
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Reply 4 - Posted by:
chance_232, 11/11/2012 1:26:12 PM (No. 9007330)
I dont doubt that the early polls were cooked. Remember, polls are used to influence public opinion and generate news.
Which leads to the following observation: We here have been living in a bubble. Look at the news sources that are most often posted here. The majority come from places like Briebart and or are opinion pieces from conservative commentators. News or opinions from other sources are put up where they are mocked. Dont forget....ABCCBSNBCMSNBCPBSNPRCNN are influencing for more people than FOX and Briebart. While I believe the MSM is biased, majorly, for the socialists, we need to understand their opinions to better address the idiocy.
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Below, you will find ...
Most Recent Articles posted by "congaree53"
and
Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)
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Most Recent Articles posted by "congaree53"
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Buchanan: Was Iraq Worth It?
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Human Events, by Patrick J. Buchanan
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 3/19/2013 12:34:17 PM
Post Reply
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Ten years ago today, U.S. air, sea and land forces attacked Iraq. And the great goals of Operation Iraqi Freedom? Destroy the chemical and biological weapons Saddam Hussein had amassed to use on us or transfer to al-Qaida for use against the U.S. homeland. Exact retribution for Saddam’s complicity in 9/11 after we learned his agents had met secretly in Prague with Mohamed Atta. Create a flourishing democracy in Baghdad that would serve as a catalyst for a miraculous transformation of the Middle East from a land of despots into a region of democracies that looked West.
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Obama´s Governing Philosophy:
Plausible Deniability
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Rushlimbaugh.com, by Rush Limbaugh
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 2/18/2013 4:18:34 PM
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RUSH: Now, before we get to that, I want to offer continuing evidence of my theorem that I put forth last week. I have a couple of stories here. Scott Rasmussen´s latest poll on Obama approval finds that Obama´s approval rating is at 54%. Strongly approve is 33%, and strongly disapprove is 36%, but the total approval (and this is a poll of likely voters) is at 54%. Despite the fact that people disagree with the direction of the country and the deficit, unemployment, gun control and all of that, Obama´s still at 54% approval. Up until last week, when I raised the curtain on this mystery, everybody asked,
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Sequester cuts a time
bomb for GOP?
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Politico, by Darren Samuelsohn
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 2/9/2013 1:53:54 PM
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Republicans open to letting billions in sequester cuts go through figure they can blame the president if the economy goes south. But Democrats are betting they can shift that blame right back to the GOP. They’re so confident, in fact, that they’re already eyeing at least 10 Republican-held seats with strong military connections from Florida to California to target in 2014, after sequester cuts have trickled down to local bases where jobs are lost and voters notice.
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What Is Driving Growth
in Government Spending?
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New York Times, by Nate Silver
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 1/18/2013 5:28:54 PM
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It’s one of the most fundamental political questions of our time: What’s driving the growth in government spending? And it has a relatively straightforward answer: first and foremost, spending on health care through Medicare and Medicaid, and other major social insurance and entitlement programs. But I thought it was worth reviewing the evidence in a bit more detail. There are a few surprises along the way, some of which liberal readers might like and others of which will please conservative readers. The Web site usgovernmentspending.com has an abundance of data on federal,
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Chuck Hagel Pick: Final
Snub of George W. Bush
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Politico, by Alexander Burns
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 1/9/2013 10:48:15 AM
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The final insult to George W. Bush’s foreign policy may have come in the form of a Republican ex-senator from Nebraska.Chuck Hagel’s nomination for secretary of defense has stirred opposition on both the left and the right, but the most vehement objections have come from the conservative, interventionist foreign policy community — the so-called neoconservatives who created the ideological architecture for the wars Bush launched in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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It´s official: Obama wins presidency
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Politico, by Ginger Gibson
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 1/4/2013 2:18:55 PM
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The outcome wasn’t a surprise: Barack Obama was re-elected Friday to a second term as president. There was no fretting about Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. There was no doubt about who would take Florida’s 29. And it was just a matter of reading a script to officially cast Virginia’s 13.The votes of the much discussed but quickly forgotten Electoral College were tallied and certified in a joint session of Congress on Friday. For Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, there were 332 votes cast. Republican Mitt Romney and running mate Paul Ryan received 206 votes.
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Mandate with Destiny
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New Yorker Magazine, by Hendrik Hertzberg
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 11/26/2012 2:04:54 PM
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Thanksgiving was still two weeks away when the Republican Party, to its evident shock, found itself stuffed, trussed, roasted, and ready to be served with all the trimmings. This was not the menu that the Party’s nominees, donors, and operatives had looked forward to. It was emphatically not the feast they had been primed to expect by their vulpine cheerleaders in the island universe of the illiberal media. Romney Beats Obama, Handily, Michael Barone trumpeted a few days before the election in the Examiner, Washington’s conservative giveaway daily.
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Rasmussen Explains
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Politico, by Charlie Mahtesian
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 11/12/2012 1:56:55 PM
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Rasmussen Reports, the prolific automated pollster whose projections fell far from the mark Tuesday, explains what went wrong: "Our final daily presidential tracking poll showed Romney at 49% and Obama at 48%. Instead, the president got 50% of the vote and Romney 48%. We were disappointed that our final results were not as close to the final result as they had been in preceding elections. There was a similar pattern in the state polls. For example, in Ohio we projected a tie at 49% but the president reached 50% of the vote and the challenger got just 48%.
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Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst)
in the 2012 Presidential Race
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New York Times, by Nate Silver
Original Article
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Posted By: congaree53- 11/11/2012 9:15:12 AM
Post Reply
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As Americans’ modes of communication change, the techniques that produce the most accurate polls seems to be changing as well. In last Tuesday’s presidential election, a number of polling firms that conduct their surveys online had strong results. Some telephone polls also performed well. But others, especially those that called only landlines or took other methodological shortcuts, performed poorly and showed a more Republican-leaning electorate than the one that actually turned out.
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Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)
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Obamacare architect Rockefeller:
It´s ´beyond comprehension´
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Washington Examiner, by Paul Bedard
Original Article
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Posted By: Drive- 4/10/2013 7:17:19 AM
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West Virginia Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller, one of the towering architects of Obamacare, on Tuesday openly criticized program managers for not moving quickly enough to build the system, warning that if it gets off to a bumpy start it will just get worse. Decrying the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as way too complex, he warned the acting Medicare director that Obamacare is "so complicated and if it isn´t done right the first time, it will just simply get worse."
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Ben Carson steps down as
Hopkins commencement speaker
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Baltimore Sun, by Andrea K. Walker
Original Article
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Posted By: toledo- 4/11/2013 7:11:23 AM
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Neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson stepped down Wednesday as commencement speaker at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine after complaints from students about controversial comments concerning same-sex marriage. The withdrawal came less than a week after medical school Dean Paul B. Rothman chastised Carson for his comments and met with graduating students concerned that the famed physician was an inappropriate commencement speaker.
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Obama enjoys ´sequester soul concert´
at White House amid massive budget
cuts and government worker furloughs
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Business Insider, by Staff
Original Article
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Posted By: Attercliffe- 4/10/2013 4:24:28 AM
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The sequester may have many across the country singing the blues, but for President Obama, it was all about Memphis Soul. Even with the threat of furloughs and government cuts sparked by the sequester, Obama took the time to enjoy a star-studded concert at the White House tonight. The White House celebration of Memphis Soul music in the East Room--which included special guest appearances by Queen Latifah and Justin Timberlake--is likely to rile Obama´s Republican foes. Some conservatives have called on Obama to give up golf, especially since popular public tours of the White House have been canceled because of
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Obama: Put Nation´s 4-Year-Olds
in ‘Public Preschool;´ Will
Save on ‘Child-Care Costs´
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Cybercast News Service, by Terence P. Jeffrey
Original Article
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Posted By: KarenJ1- 4/10/2013 1:18:38 PM
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In the message he issued along with his budget proposal on Wednesday morning, President Barack Obama said he wants to see 4-year-old children in the United States enrolled in public schools. Obama said America needs to start enrolling 4-year-olds to make sure the children are “better prepared for the demands of the global economy” and to help parents save on "child-care costs." After saying the United States needs to “equip our citizens with the skills and training” to fill jobs in manufacturing, energy and infrastructure, Obama said, “And that has to start at the earliest possible age.”
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Daughter of Obama´s former
pastor charged with fraud
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Reuters, by Mary Wisniewski
Original Article
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Posted By: mitzi- 4/11/2013 1:11:19 AM
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The daughter of President Barack Obama´s controversial former pastor was indicted on Wednesday on charges of money laundering and lying to federal authorities, a Justice Department spokeswoman said. Jeri L. Wright, 47, the daughter of Jeremiah Wright, was accused of participating in a fraud scheme led by a former suburban police chief and the chief´s husband that involved a $1.25 million state grant, according to the Attorney´s office for the Central District of Illinois in Springfield. Wright, of the Chicago suburb of Hazel Crest, was charged with two counts of money
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Obama´s Army Outmaneuvered by the NRA
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NationalJournal, by Beth Rinehard
Original Article
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Posted By: FlyRight- 4/10/2013 7:18:37 AM
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Although the first votes on gun -control legislation have yet to be cast, by some measures the National Rifle Association has already won. Obama’s ambitious plans to ban assault weapons and limit magazine capacities are off the table, while the NRA suggested it could support the most likely outcome -- expanded background checks -- as recently as 1999. The NRA claims that the president’s efforts have triggered a fundraising surge and boosted its membership from 4 million to nearly 5 million.
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4 annoying ways climate change
will make your life a bummer
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The Week, by Chris Gayomali
Original Article
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Posted By: NorthernDog- 4/10/2013 7:30:26 PM
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Within the next few decades, carbon emissions could cause global temperatures to rise between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit, melting ice caps and causing sea levels to rise. The price of crops like coffee and chocolate will skyrocket, and countless cuddly animals around the globe could be wiped out. And yet, a lot of people find it hard to really care about climate change. But don´t be fooled: Climate change will affect you. Here´s a brief sampling of ways that warmer temperatures will suck the fun out of your life: 1. Your flights will be more turbulent
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End this bizarre fantasy
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New York Post, by Andrea Peyser
Original Article
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Posted By: StormCnter- 4/11/2013 5:10:54 AM
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Is Anthony Weiner completely delusional? Or is he out of his flipping, sex-crazed gourd? Whatever big-busted fantasies crawl around the ex-congressman’s delirious noggin, la Weiner made his next goal as clear as the skin of the wholesome college students he craved: He relishes being Mayor Weiner. Please, shut up this clown. These days, the genitally obsessed Weiner has nothing much to do, except sit in his lavish Manhattan apartment and — the inhumanity! — change the poopy diapers of his 16-month-old son, Jordan. Worse, Weiner is living under a kind of house arrest, sentenced to take extreme grief
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Student to Rand Paul: I don´t
want government to leave me alone
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Washington Examiner, by Charlie Spiering
Original Article
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Posted By: Maryland_Patriot- 4/10/2013 12:45:12 PM
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During the Q and A session after Sen. Rand Paul’s speech at Howard University, one student explained that he was not a fan of his view of government. “You say you want to provide a government that leaves us alone, quite frankly, I don’t want that,” the student said. “I want a government that is going to help me.” The student insisted that he wanted assistance for his college education and asked if Rand Paul supported a culture change within the nation. “Do you Sen. Rand Paul have a formulated solution to come up with new American values
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Pat Smith and 700 Special Ops
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American Spectator, by Jeffrey Lord
Original Article
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Posted By: StormCnter- 4/11/2013 6:13:54 AM
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Seven hundred Military Special Operations professionals. And one insistent and very angry Mom. This is becoming a deadly combination for the political game players in the Obama Administration. Sean Smith, the young State Department computer wizard who was brutally murdered that September night in Benghazi, was Pat Smith’s only child. Let’s say that again. Sean Smith was Mrs. Smith’s only child. To listen to her recent radio interview with another Sean… Sean Hannity… is to have the heart break.
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AG sues florist who refused
flowers to gay wedding
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Seattle Post-Intelligencer [WA], by Joel Connelly
Original Article
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Posted By: KarenJ1- 4/10/2013 2:28:46 PM
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State Attorney General Bob Ferguson on Tuesday filed a consumer protection lawsuit against Arlene’s Flowers & Gifts, a Richland florist that refused to supply flowers to the same-sex marriage of a longtime customer. Ferguson said he sent a March 28 letter to owner Barronelle Stutzman asking her to reconsider and supply flowers to customer Robert Ingersoll. Through an attorney, Stutzman declined to change her position.“As Attorney General, it is my job to enforce the laws of the state of Washington,” said Ferguson. “Under the Consumer Protection Act, it is unlawful to discriminate
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