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Mitt’s key to victory
New York Post, by John Podhoretz

Original Article

Posted By:Pluperfect, 11/6/2012 4:56:24 AM

If Mitt Romney wins tonight, it’ll likely be because of something revealed by a little-noticed statistic released yesterday by the polling firm Rasmussen — following a similar statistic last week from Gallup. Rasmussen revealed that for the month of October, its data showed that among likely voters, the electorate is 39 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic. This comes from a survey of 15,000 people taken over the course of a month. Yes, 15,000 people —15 times the number in a statistically significant poll. This number might be discounted, since Rasmussen has a reputation as leaning Republican.

      


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Reply 1 - Posted by: steph_gray, 11/6/2012 5:18:21 AM     (No. 8991325)

Vote for must read.

And many thanks to the wonderful lucianne.com - may your site survive today's maelstrom of hits!

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Reply 2 - Posted by: bpl40, 11/6/2012 5:42:15 AM     (No. 8991340)

This is only the half of it. Independents who form the rest of the voters are going for RR by double digits. 0bama had carried them by seven in 2008. It really looks encouraging. The Mrs. and I are hitting the polling booth at opening - 6.00am

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Reply 3 - Posted by: asu86pe, 11/6/2012 6:30:26 AM     (No. 8991401)

Bottomline

It's November 6th, VOTE!

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Reply 4 - Posted by: M2, 11/6/2012 7:59:33 AM     (No. 8991570)

Very interesting point:

In a right-leaning state like North Carolina, for various reasons, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 20 points.

This could account for Romney's win tonight: a large number of registered Democrats live their lives as conservatives in NC. It's largely blue-collar workers but they are true-blue Americans, they love the country and they don't like what has happened, especially as it concerns jobs and religious interference.

This is something Gallup and Rasmussen cannot factor into their polls -- Democrats who will be voting for Romney because they don't like their Presidents being anti-American.

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Reply 5 - Posted by: jeffkinnh, 11/6/2012 8:17:04 AM     (No. 8991603)



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Reply 6 - Posted by: jeffkinnh, 11/6/2012 8:41:58 AM     (No. 8991666)

"If Mitt Romney wins tonight, it’ll likely be BECAUSE of "

Wrong. Polls don't cause anything. "Surprising" election results might be EXPLAINED by polls that overstated dem numbers but Mitt's victory will not be CAUSED by them.

Further, John overlooks another major point. While dems are down, Independents are significantly up.

So we KNOW there are far less reliable dem votes than in 2008. We KNOW there are more Independents and they are strongly favoring Romney.

Dropping dems from 39% of the electorate (2008) to 36% loses them 4 million votes or about 3% of the total vote (about 130 million). If dems are down to 33% they are down 6% of the vote and BO is burnt toast. That doesn't even count the losses from BO dropping from 52% support from Independents in 2008 to 41% now. Since there are more Independents that's a larger portion of the vote as well, over 4 million votes, putting BO down by 6 to 9 points from his 2008 results (53%). He would get 44%-47% of the vote.

If it's 53/47 for Romney, that's a solid win, about BO's margin in 2008. If it's 56/44 for Romney, that's a blowout.

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