The last several weeks have not been good for Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock of Indiana. The two-term state treasurer, who beat six-term incumbent Senator Dick Lugar in the GOP primary in May, has fallen back in the polls against his Democratic opponent, Congressman Joe Donnelly. A recent poll, from Brian Howey and Depauw University, showed an 11-point lead for Donnelly. (snip) But despite the media narrative and the Howey/DePauw poll, Mourdock still has a chance of winning the seat, for a few of reasons: 1. Joe Donnelly does not actually lead by 11 points.
Reply 1 - Posted by:
Grant Hodges, 11/5/2012 12:17:30 AM (No. 8988445)
I don't believe an 11 point poll advantage for Donnelly over Mourdock. DePauw is as doctrinaire liberal institution as you can find in Indiana and hardly representative. Come election day I think Mourdock will have won solidly.
This Depauw University poll is probably the shabbiest and most suspect that I've seen in years. Their tally of 47% to 36% only accounts for 83% of the electorate! They acknowledge 11% undecided, but still; 6% for some third party candidate is also ridiculously inflated.
I searched for a while but I could not find the sampling breakdown used in the poll. I wouldn't be surprised if they assumed a heavy Democrat turnout advantage in a state that is going to be quite red this election.
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