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National polls are meaningless
at this stage in the election
Yahoo! News, by David Rothschild
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Original Article
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Posted By:NorthernDog, 10/30/2012 12:33:59 PM
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| One would think that Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, every sufficiently wealthy news organization and anyone else interested in conducting a poll would be familiar with the basics of the American electoral system. Why they all insist on continuing to waste precious ink on national polls, then, is completely mystifying. Gallup's latest poll of registered voters reports that former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied nationally, 48 to 48 percent. Gallup's latest poll of likely voters, based on a complex set of assumptions about voter turnout, has Romney leading Obama by
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Comments:
LOL - With Romney in the lead in virtually every national poll, they suddenly want to ignore them - as if the national poll has no relation to the state-by-state polls.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
fb2002, 10/30/2012 12:35:59 PM (No. 8974669)
National polls are meaningless because zero is losing. The press is outright members of the zero campaign. They are so in the tank! The founding fathers are rolling in their grave.
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Reply 2 - Posted by:
devnull, 10/30/2012 12:41:35 PM (No. 8974682)
Ditto here, polls are only meaningless when you are losing and need to keep the troops moving.
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Reply 3 - Posted by:
msctex1, 10/30/2012 12:46:16 PM (No. 8974698)
Losing means polls and Electoral College are both horrible, antiquated things. Winning means they are both products of genius, and American as apple pie.
You just have to laugh at this point.
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Reply 4 - Posted by:
gator, 10/30/2012 12:50:40 PM (No. 8974717)
One of the reasons I cancelled my Yahoo account, up to their eyeballs in the zero's tank.
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Reply 5 - Posted by:
LittleHoodedMonk, 10/30/2012 12:51:48 PM (No. 8974723)
''National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election''
As the King of Id was once told by one of his staff, ''The peasants are revolting.'' To which the King said, ''You can say that again.''
0bama see US the same way.
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Reply 6 - Posted by:
msjena, 10/30/2012 1:05:31 PM (No. 8974755)
National polls are meaningless because Ohio is so different from the rest of the country. Oh wait...
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Reply 7 - Posted by:
skillsss, 10/30/2012 1:09:27 PM (No. 8974769)
JournOlism and JournOlists are quickly becoming meaningless....The MSM has no credibility nor integrity. Their Partisan Selective Fact Reporters, Bogus Fact Checkers, Political Activists Incognito, Biased Spin Doctors, Ruthless Character Assassins & Obama-approved Goobermint Mouth Pieces are the laughing stock of our Nation. Given their quickly identifiable transparent and small behavior, JournOlists are becoming widely known as the "UnCronkites of Our Generation." I find the hard copy of their "news," diatribes and rhetoric best suited to line the inside of bird cages.
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Reply 8 - Posted by:
jasmine, 10/30/2012 1:15:14 PM (No. 8974787)
If national polls are meaningless, why waste "precious ink" writing about them?
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Reply 9 - Posted by:
hoopsfan, 10/30/2012 1:27:31 PM (No. 8974823)
What a concept....the idea that, for example, a 4 or 5 point difference in overall popular vote would not necessarily translate to an Electoral College win??
Mathematically possible perhaps, but HIGHLY unlikely for there to be differing overall results when there is a 2% difference or greater in the popular vote totals.
So the national vote totals continue to tell us something important about the overall state of the race. And, as noted already, some of the swing states are very similar demographically to the national voting profile, and very likely to have results that are similar.
The author of the article is blowing smoke; perhaps since he is a Ph.D, it may be pipe smoke from a faculty lounge.
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Reply 10 - Posted by:
Bartemis, 10/30/2012 1:31:37 PM (No. 8974841)
Yeah, I clutched that straw back when O was leading McCain by about the same margin back in '08.
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Reply 11 - Posted by:
Poca Dot, 10/30/2012 2:00:07 PM (No. 8974897)
First one to say THE ONLY POLL THAT COUNTS IS THE ONE ON ELECTION DAY loses
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Reply 12 - Posted by:
Opsimath, 10/30/2012 2:05:45 PM (No. 8974908)
It's only meaningless because the numbers are going the wrong way for the dems. Can't have too much evidence that Romney was ahead if they are planning to steal an election.
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Reply 13 - Posted by:
shalimar, 10/30/2012 2:19:26 PM (No. 8974936)
I used to subscribe to this mantra, until I learned that national polls generally ARE predictive. That's why pollsters regularly do the generic ballot question, asking respondents if they will vote for the R nominee or D nominee for Congress. It does help predict what the composition of the next Congress will be.
My understanding is that an outcome such as 52-47 nationwide won't produce an electoral college outcome that differs from the popular outcome. An outcome of 50.5 to 49.5 might.
Why this should be I should probably leave to the Michael Barones of the world to explain. But I'll offer a guess that the swing states do not vary all that much from national polls. This is what makes them swing states ... and why national polls do matter.
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Reply 14 - Posted by:
FenwayFrank, 10/30/2012 2:31:01 PM (No. 8974957)
Apparently Yahoo's little David is challenged by "complexity". Perhaps he'll find voting just as daunting and stay home, cowering from the complexity of it all.
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Reply 15 - Posted by:
VAfreedomluver, 10/30/2012 3:34:57 PM (No. 8975075)
The liberals in the media are embarrassingly transparent, aren't they? LOL
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Reply 16 - Posted by:
oriton, 10/30/2012 4:39:50 PM (No. 8975197)
David, you're melting, melting...what a world, what a woooorrrlldd...
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Reply 17 - Posted by:
trashcann, 10/30/2012 8:02:28 PM (No. 8975547)
The sad reality is a number of weak minded individuals will wake up election day and vote for the person with a 3 point lead. this is why national polls matter.
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NewsBusters reported Sunday the media´s chorus to silence Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.) is growing louder. As fate would have it, at roughly the same time, David Brooks was sitting down for a chat with PBS’s Jeff Greenfield at the 92nd Street Y during which the New York Times columnist said, “It doesn’t help that [Cruz] has a face that looks a little like Joe McCarthy” (video follows with transcript and commentary): After Greenfield brought up the Texas Senator, Brooks said, “So Ted Cruz is, just violates my sense. And I think if you mention the name Ted
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The leftists at Mother Jones are brandishing another secret tape. Pollster Frank Luntz, denounced as too conservative by liberals when he turns up on liberal networks, told a group of college students at the University of Pennsylvania this week that Rush Limbaugh and right-wing talk radio are "problematic" for the GOP and that he and Mark Levin were “killing” Marco Rubio for his immigration proposals. Democrats have “got every other source of news on their side. And so that is a lot of what´s driving it. If you take—Marco Rubio´s getting his ass kicked. Who´s
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Since the Boston bombing, much of cable news quite naturally has taken to discussing various issues surrounding terrorism and radicalization. Morning Joe on Wednesday was no exception. Joined by The Daily Beast’s Tina Brown, the panel also took a look at media portrayal — stressing that we can’t “demonize” all of Islam when we talk about radicals. “The whole family was becoming radicalized, and perhaps by their inability to fit in this culture,” Brown remarked, speaking about “home-grown” terrorism and the Tsarnaev family. As the discussion turned to what exactly “self-radicalized” means, James Peterson asserted,
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