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California poll shows Obama with smaller lead
Los Angeles Times, by Seema Mehta
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Original Article
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Posted By:NorthernDog, 10/27/2012 9:46:58 AM
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| Even in vividly blue California, President Obama's luster has faded since his historic victory here in 2008, a new poll has found. Despite his sizable lead over Mitt Romney, the president is unlikely to repeat his historic 2008 margin of victory here because of his diminished power to pull in people who don't traditionally support Democrats, according to the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. The drop in appeal across party and demographic lines has translated, at this point, to a 14-point edge over the Republican nominee among likely voters — well below Obama's 24-point victory in 2008
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Comments: He's polling 10 points lower then in 2008. It's also worth noting that his still-lopsided lead in CA is a big chunk of his national polling numbers. A national poll excluding CA would be interesting to see.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
earlybird, 10/27/2012 10:08:12 AM (No. 8966691)
Here are the voter registration statistics as of September 7, 2012, afrom the Secretary of State's website:
Democrats 43.3% Republicans 30.1% Other 5.3% No Party Preference 21.3%
We are wondering where the "No Party Preference" votes are going to go. That is the only classification that has grown as the Dems and Republicans both shrunk.
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Reply 2 - Posted by:
Scottish girl, 10/27/2012 10:09:23 AM (No. 8966700)
Yes, I live 20 miles south of SF and I don't see very many Obama signs. Have seen a few Romney.
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Reply 3 - Posted by:
Lucky4, 10/27/2012 10:31:09 AM (No. 8966769)
I live near SF too and in my neighborhood there is one house with Romney, and one house with Obama/Biden. The rest are all local races. My neighborhood is not big on signs though, but what is more accurate to me is bumper stickers, I have seen very few Obama bumper stickers and more than usual for Romney. So that has been great. I should clarify when I say more then usual that is only about 5 vs none.
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Reply 4 - Posted by:
fireman28, 10/27/2012 10:44:04 AM (No. 8966815)
Holy Smokes? Could the Won lose Kalifornia??
As an add on. Not sure if the Romney campaign distributed signs/bumper stickers there. We had to purchase them in GA; but Romney signs are all over. Our county GOP gave out 3,000 yard signs and tons of bumper stickers.
Good luck Calif.
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Reply 5 - Posted by:
SoCalGal, 10/27/2012 10:49:45 AM (No. 8966833)
One upper-middle residential neighborhood that was loaded with Obama signs in 2008 was bare the last time I drove the street.
We are not big on signs here except for some who let local candidates post on their lawns. And not much of that. But this particular street had a noticeable number of O signs last time. Not now.
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Reply 6 - Posted by:
gesundheit, 10/27/2012 10:50:29 AM (No. 8966836)
Obama may be leading by 14 points in California, but the actual numbers present a much less rosy picture for Obama.
The latest California poll appearing on Real Clear Politics shows Obama at only 53%, with Romney at 41%, and the rest undecided.
Most undecided voters end up voting for the challenger instead of the incumbent, which is corroborated by the fact that a slightly earlier California poll shows Obama also at 53% but Romney at 38%, meaning Romney picked up 3 additional points in only a few days.
At that rate, Romney could close the gap sufficiently that by election day, with Romney voters more energized than Obama's and many Democrats overconfidently staying home rather than trekking to the voting booth, Romney could win California.
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Reply 7 - Posted by:
Salt5792, 10/27/2012 10:57:45 AM (No. 8966863)
With its majority/minority population, CA voting is hopeless.
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Reply 8 - Posted by:
dragonlearner, 10/27/2012 11:06:23 AM (No. 8966896)
I'm wondering if this "preference cascade" stuff is real. Could we be in for a big surprise Nov 6?
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Reply 9 - Posted by:
Scribelus, 10/27/2012 11:06:48 AM (No. 8966899)
Who cares? California will continue in its accelerating collective suicide. I hope that it doesn't become an Islamic state.
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Reply 10 - Posted by:
God of Irony, 10/27/2012 11:12:19 AM (No. 8966911)
California proves that all of these polls that have Obama exceeding the party id numbers of 08 are bogus.
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Reply 11 - Posted by:
killerbee, 10/27/2012 11:33:13 AM (No. 8966969)
#1: I live in California and I'm "no party preference". I'm voting for Romney.
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Reply 12 - Posted by:
leftcoastmom, 10/27/2012 11:39:55 AM (No. 8966990)
Party at my house if Romney wins California!
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Reply 13 - Posted by:
jt26, 10/27/2012 11:47:52 AM (No. 8967013)
In a word...landslide.
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Reply 14 - Posted by:
formerNYer, 10/27/2012 11:54:57 AM (No. 8967032)
Yikes, if 0 is close in the PRK (People's Rublik of Kalifornia) he's got to be in big trouble in MI, OH, PA, WI and even in place like MN, And places like FL, VA, NH, ME have to be red by now.
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Reply 15 - Posted by:
faldo, 10/27/2012 12:00:21 PM (No. 8967046)
Zero's O electoral votes on Nov 6th---biggest lopsided victory in the history of US presidential elections
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Reply 16 - Posted by:
redink, 10/27/2012 12:08:53 PM (No. 8967072)
I care, #9...and so does every American-loving Californian. There are no lost causes. Everyone gets a chance in life. I've never been willing to write off my home. It may not go to Romney, but the fact that it's close is encouraging. And it may be a sign of things to come.
California Dreamin'.
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Reply 17 - Posted by:
octrojan, 10/27/2012 12:14:17 PM (No. 8967089)
The Rep party in Calif has a self-destructing tendency and a tired,inept, RINO McCain was a tough sell here to Reps--as was, unfortunately, Sarah Palin, so Obama was never going to win by 24 again. However, with so many enviro whackos, hispanics, Asians (almost universally Dems exc. for Vietnamese), to be this close is a great sign for the voting in the rest of the country.
On a side note...in that same election that Obama won by 24%, Prop 8 also passed, banning gay marriage. Yes, it was Obama voters that tried to kill gay marriage in Calif.
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Reply 18 - Posted by:
Deedo, 10/27/2012 12:15:13 PM (No. 8967094)
Pretty remarkable considering the mass-exodus of working citizens leaving California the last few years. The stranglehold of statism has grown too tight for the 53% that pay taxes.
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Reply 19 - Posted by:
pigop, 10/27/2012 12:21:36 PM (No. 8967116)
Most accurate polling is in my house of 4 people. I was the only one who voted McCain in 2008. I convinced my wife and 2 of my grown kids to vote and have registered R this time around. They will vote for Romney! That's 75% increase.
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Reply 20 - Posted by:
Hobbiest, 10/27/2012 12:22:54 PM (No. 8967119)
Question 49 was interesting. Obama won 61% of the vote in California in 2008 yet only 54% of the those polled who say they voted in 2008 say that they voted for Obama.
I've seen this in other polls over the last three years. In one poll the number who said they voted for a third party candidate was almost four times the 2008 third party vote. Usually it's the winner who picks up a percentage point or two with the passage of time because some people like to see themselves as having being on the winning side. With Obama it seems some people are embarrassed they fell for him.
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Reply 21 - Posted by:
calgrammy, 10/27/2012 12:27:16 PM (No. 8967131)
I live in SO.CA. I have seen only two Obama bumper stickers. Actual conversation I overheard in CVS between young women,well young to me. They were not happy with this entire lady parts,women only care about abortion and free birth control. Seems they have same concerns as men.
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Reply 22 - Posted by:
Hobbiest, 10/27/2012 12:43:02 PM (No. 8967175)
#21. I am not a fan of Ann Althouse but she made good point a while back. She voted for Obama in 2008 and had been wringing her hands about siding with us knuckle dragging Republicans this year until she caught Obama in a flat out lie. Women don't like men who lie. The way Obama talked down to Romney in the debates was also a huge turn off for women voters. That Obama's campaign messaging is all lady parts underscores the lack of respect they have now seen with their own eyes.
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Reply 23 - Posted by:
bob913, 10/27/2012 1:19:18 PM (No. 8967281)
obama is running commercials here in California. Why if he is ahead and it is a slam dunk?
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Reply 24 - Posted by:
The Advocate, 10/27/2012 1:47:16 PM (No. 8967341)
O has been running ads for awhile in CA. Brown thought he could slip a tax increase into the ballot and may have brought out more anti Obama votes in the process. Gossip in Bev Hills- more 2008 Obama voters are turning to Romney. Benghazi may be the tipping point with all the military and defense people and their extended families. Ty Woods is Every Americans son and Obama murdered him.
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Reply 25 - Posted by:
Emerson, 10/27/2012 1:56:34 PM (No. 8967365)
Many of the "minorities" in California do not bother to go to the polls. They may be less interested this year.
Middle-class Hispanics tend to be very conservative, religious, family-oriented. And they work. I cannot see them drinking his Koolaid.
Those who write off California are foolish. Have a look at what the State contributes to the fed and what it takes back. We give more than we get. Other states are on the fed dole, comparatively speaking.
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Reply 26 - Posted by:
Emerson, 10/27/2012 2:04:33 PM (No. 8967385)
Re #25,
"Federal Taxing and Spending Benefit Some States, Leave Others Paying Bill"
During fiscal 2005, taxpayers in New Mexico benefited the most from the give-and-take with Uncle Sam, receiving $2.03 in federal outlays for every $1.00 the state's taxpayers sent to Washington. This first-place finish is nothing new in New Mexico which has perched atop this list for many years. Other big winners in 2005 were Mississippi ($2.02), Alaska ($1.84), Louisiana ($1.78), and West Virginia ($1.76).
2005's biggest loser was New Jersey, which received 61 cents in outlays per tax dollar. Other low ranking states included Nevada (65 cents), Connecticut (69 cents), New Hampshire (71 cents), and Minnesota (72 cents).
http://taxfoundation.org/article/federal-taxing-and-spending-benefit-some-states-leave-others-paying-bill-1
A table of the 50 states and District of Columbia is included in the article. California is #43 (78 cents of each tax dollar to the fed).
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Reply 27 - Posted by:
SoCalGal, 10/27/2012 2:08:11 PM (No. 8967389)
Interesting reading for those who would like to dump California:
http://www.calwatchdog.com/2010/02/10/new-is-california-a-donor-state/
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Reply 28 - Posted by:
Italiano, 10/27/2012 2:15:41 PM (No. 8967411)
I haen't seen many hybrids or VW vans with Obama bumper stickers this time around. I ran a ton of them off the road, but no way could I have gotten them all.
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Reply 29 - Posted by:
gillyo, 10/27/2012 2:20:55 PM (No. 8967429)
I live on the border between the Bay Area and the Central Valley. I'm also registered as no party preference, and I will be voting for Romney.
I re-registered in 2008 and at that time was nervous about anyone finding out I was a Republican because the Obama-mania out here was so intense, and frankly, scary. I would guess that most of the no party preference voters are Conservatives like me, who don't want to be "outed" because we are afraid of how it will impact our ability to make a living. Sad, but true.
People out here are getting as fed up as they are elsewhere in the country. Our problem is that we have a combo of rich Democrats and dependent minority and immigrant groups. The rich Dems like to feel good about themselves so they pretend to care about the "little people" by supporting leftist causes. It's easy for them because they get the government to pay for services for these folks, while keeping them well away from their neighborhoods. The same people who have no problem building low income housing in my neighborhood have a hissy fit when it's discovered that a poorer child's parents lied to get their kid into the rich folks neighborhood public school.
I'm so tired of pointing out that many of the same people who fuss about the 47% are the 1%. They spend fortunes on fancy restaurants, "green" vacations, organic cotton clothes, and hybrid vehicles and then whine about how we aren't doing enough to help the poor. Catch a clue morons, give up the $100 per person meal once a week and donate it to a food bank. Duh....
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Posted By: StormCnter- 4/7/2013 5:00:16 AM
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On Friday, Sean Hannity brought Pat Smith, mother of the late Sean Smith, on his radio program. The 34-year-old information management officer was one of four Americans murdered in the Benghazi embassy attack on September 11, 2012. In the chilling interview, a distraught Ms. Smith, in tears, pleaded for answers and spoke of the efforts to silence her. Ms. Smith first relayed how her son, prior to the attack, requested additional security in advance and warned the State Department: He did tell them, ahead of time, he typed it into his little typewriter over there,
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Special ops veterans’ group calls for select probe of Benghazi attack
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Fox News, by Catherine Herridge
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Posted By: JoniTx- 4/8/2013 7:00:09 AM
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More than 700 Special Operations veterans are urging members of Congress to back a select committee to investigate last year’s Benghazi terrorist attack, according to a letter first obtained by Fox News. The letter from the group, “Special Operations Speaks,” supports the appointment of a special committee tasked with the single mission of investigating the attack that left Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans dead, and shut down the CIA operation in an annex of the Benghazi consulate, in the Sept. 11, 2012 attack. “Congress must show some leadership and provide answers to the public
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Chelsea Clinton doesn´t close door to public office
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USA Today, by Catalina Camia
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Posted By: jackson- 4/8/2013 10:23:20 AM
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Chelsea Clinton has raised her profile in the last few days, which sparked the inevitable question about the former first daughter´s future: Will she ever be like Mom and Dad and run for office? Clinton, 33, essentially said "maybe" in an interview that aired Monday on NBC´s Today show. "Right now I´m grateful to live in a city, a state and a country where I strongly support my mayor, my governor, my president and my senators and my representative," said Clinton, whose father, Bill, was president from 1993-2001 and her mother, Hillary
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The Secrets of Princeton
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New York Times, by Ross Douthat
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Posted By: Oblio- 4/7/2013 8:08:09 AM
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Susan Patton, the Princeton alumna who became famous for her letter urging Ivy League women to use their college years to find a mate, has been denounced as a traitor to feminism, to coeducation, to the university ideal. But really she’s something much more interesting: a traitor to her class. Her betrayal consists of being gauche enough to acknowledge publicly a truth that everyone who’s come up through Ivy League culture knows intuitively —
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