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Nate Silver's Flawed Model
National Review Online, by Josh Jordan
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Original Article
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Posted By:Stallion_Cornell, 10/22/2012 6:53:25 PM
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| In the days before the first debate in Denver, President Obama held more than a four-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average, and Romney had been left for dead by most of the media. Then the debate came, and overnight Romney seemingly rid himself of the weaknesses that had been tacked on to him by over $100 million dollars in negative advertising. Now here we are a few weeks later with a dead heat in nationwide polls.
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Comments:
I'm so sick and tired of lefties who consider Mr. Silver the gold standard for poll analysis and think that somehow his goofy model will ultimately matter more than actual election results.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
ColonialAmerican1623, 10/22/2012 7:00:50 PM (No. 8953520)
Everybody is a maven.
November 6th will decide.
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Reply 2 - Posted by:
Lcomstaff, 10/22/2012 7:04:05 PM (No. 8953525)
previously posted.
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Thread Closed
Below, you will find ...
Most Recent Articles posted by "Stallion_Cornell"
and
Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)
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Most Recent Articles posted by "Stallion_Cornell"
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In Our Opinion: A Place to Start
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Deseret News [Salt Lake City, UT], by Editorial
Original Article
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Posted By: Stallion_Cornell- 4/6/2013 7:45:27 AM
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News outlets have gone to great lengths to catalogue the disturbing contents of Adam Lanza's bedroom. The accused perpetrator of the Newtown massacre had a cache of violent collectibles that included a plethora of guns and ammunition, along with nearly a dozen knives and three samurai swords, among other things. The media focus has been almost exclusively on these externalities, The media focus has been almost exclusively on these externalities, with very little effort made to take an internal inventory of the thought processes
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Where´s the respect for religion on TV?
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Deseret News [Salt Lake City, UT], by Jim Bennett
Original Article
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Posted By: Stallion_Cornell- 4/3/2013 7:29:46 PM
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As “The Bible,” the History Channel’s blockbuster miniseries, broke ratings records, it also likely astounds credulous Hollywood executives who, despite overwhelming evidence of the massive pent-up demand for quality religious entertainment, are always caught flat-footed when such entertainment is rewarded with ratings, ticket sales and lots of cash. Say, remember when Mel Gibson’s “The Passion of the Christ” was supposed to be this weird, dreary flop but then went on to gross more than $600 million? Look at the number of “Star Wars” copycats Hollywood has produced
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The 21st century blacklist
focused on conservatives
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Deseret News (Salt Lake City), by Jim Bennett
Original Article
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Posted By: Stallion_Cornell- 3/8/2013 11:07:37 AM
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My grandfather, Wallace F. Bennett, retired from the United States Senate in 1974, four years before my personal chronology reached into double digits. Thus I have no memory of him serving in Congress, but as an adult, I’ve come to appreciate his legacy, particularly in two areas — his strong support for the 1964 landmark Civil Rights Act and his 1954 introduction of a formal resolution of censure against Sen. Joe McCarthy for acting in a manner “contrary to good morals and senatorial ethics.”
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How to fail in Hollywood
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Deseret News, by Jim Bennett
Original Article
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Posted By: Stallion_Cornell- 2/15/2013 2:30:30 PM
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Having grown up in Los Angeles and spending a good chunk of my youth thinking I was going to make my living as an actor, I am occasionally asked what it takes to make it in Hollywood. Given that I did not, in fact, make it in Hollywood, I’m probably not the right guy to ask. However, I do have one bit of expert advice on how to not make it in Hollywood. So for those looking for the key to failure, here it is: Walk into an audition wearing a Republican T-shirt.
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Quentin Tarantino and his films
are part of the problem
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Deseret News [Utah], by Jim Bennett
Original Article
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Posted By: Stallion_Cornell- 1/11/2013 2:40:57 PM
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I’ve had a number of odd jobs in my time, but one of the oddest was when I worked as a profanity counter. As I recounted in an earlier column, I used to get paid to sit through movies and chronicle all the naughty bits. (Snip) After recording 273 utterances of the most notorious R-rated profanity in the movie "Reservoir Dogs," I decided that I would never again voluntarily subject myself to another flick written or directed by Quentin Tarantino.
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CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio
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CNN, by Paul Steinhauser
Original Article
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Posted By: Stallion_Cornell- 10/26/2012 6:26:35 PM
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With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close. According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.
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Nate Silver's Flawed Model
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National Review Online, by Josh Jordan
Original Article
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Posted By: Stallion_Cornell- 10/22/2012 6:53:25 PM
Post Reply
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In the days before the first debate in Denver, President Obama held more than a four-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average, and Romney had been left for dead by most of the media. Then the debate came, and overnight Romney seemingly rid himself of the weaknesses that had been tacked on to him by over $100 million dollars in negative advertising. Now here we are a few weeks later with a dead heat in nationwide polls.
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Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)
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´My bangs are getting
a little irritating´: Michelle
Obama admits she already regrets
her high-maintenance hairdo
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Daily Mail (UK), by Margot Peppers
Original Article
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Posted By: pineledger- 4/7/2013 7:43:42 AM
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Michelle Obama has admitted that she is already tired of the bangs she first sported in January. The First Lady said in an interview with Entertainment Tonight: ´Bangs are a day-by-day proposition. They´re starting to grow out, get a little irritating.´ Still, she hasn´t let her hairdo woes get her down. ´It´s okay,´ she said after her initial complaint. ´We´ll be good.´ The first indication that her hairstyle was becoming a burden came about last weekend, when Malia, 14, was spotted adjusting her mother´s hair during the White House Easter Egg Roll.
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McCain: ´I don´t understand´
GOP filibuster on guns
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Politico, by Jennifer Epstein
Original Article
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Posted By: JoniTx- 4/7/2013 12:18:14 PM
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Sen. John McCain says he doesn´t understand the threats from some of his Republican colleagues to filibuster a bill on background checks to buy guns. "I don´t understand it," the Arizona Republican said on Sunday of the threat coming from Sen. Rand Paul,Sen. Ted Cruz, Sen. Mike Lee and nine other Republicans. "The purpose of the United States Senate is to debate and to vote and to let the people know where we stand.” "What are we afraid of? ... If this issue is as important as we all think it is, why not take ... it up and debate?"
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Why Obama´s ´Best-Looking Attorney
General´ Comment Was a Gaffe
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The Atlantic, by Garance Franke-Ruta
Original Article
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Posted By: Oblio- 4/6/2013 6:51:15 AM
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President Obama´s biggest gaffe yesterday when speaking of California Attorney General Kamala Harris was not in flirtatiously complimenting her as "the best-looking attorney general," but in introducing an observation from the system of beauty into a forum that was about the system of power.What´s that, you say? Irin Carmon does a great job in Salon in laying out the bounds of propriety for when it´s appropriate to talk about a woman´s looks as a general matter. But I´ve long felt we lack a solid theoretical underpinning for easily discussing these issues, and why precisely it is that
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Mother Of Slain Benghazi
Officer To Sean Hannity:
‘They Want Me To Shut Up’
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Mediaite, by A.J. Delgado
Original Article
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Posted By: StormCnter- 4/7/2013 5:00:16 AM
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On Friday, Sean Hannity brought Pat Smith, mother of the late Sean Smith, on his radio program. The 34-year-old information management officer was one of four Americans murdered in the Benghazi embassy attack on September 11, 2012. In the chilling interview, a distraught Ms. Smith, in tears, pleaded for answers and spoke of the efforts to silence her. Ms. Smith first relayed how her son, prior to the attack, requested additional security in advance and warned the State Department: He did tell them, ahead of time, he typed it into his little typewriter over there,
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Hillary Clinton Would Not
´Clear the Field´ for 2016
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New Republic, by Tod Lindberg
Original Article
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Posted By: StormCnter- 4/6/2013 5:22:36 AM
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No one is more preoccupied these days with Hillary Clinton´s 2016 plans than the Beltway political class—not even the former presidential candidate herself. To hear some tell it, her decision will be dispositive for all other Democrats thinking of entering the race. And pundits and reporters aren´t the only ones positing the "The Hillary Factor": No less than the House Democratic whip, Steny Hoyer, told BuzzFeed, “I don´t know that anybody would run against Hillary…. If she runs, she clears the field.” It´s an understandable conclusion, given Clinton´s stature in the Democratic Party and her 70 percent
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Obama critic apologizes for
his ´poorly chosen words´
on gay marriage
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The Hill [Washington DC], by Alexandra Jaffe
Original Article
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Posted By: JoniTx- 4/6/2013 12:18:19 PM
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Neurosurgeon Ben Carson, considered by some to be a potential Republican contender for president, apologized to Johns Hopkins University for the "poorly chosen words" he used in expressing his opposition to gay marriage last month.“I am sorry for any embarrassment this has caused,” Carson said in the letter, reported in New York Magazine.(Snip) "Although I do believe marriage is between a man and a woman, there are much less offensive ways to make that point. I hope all will look at a lifetime of service over some poorly chosen words.” Carson will remain as commencement speaker at Johns Hopkins,
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Vanishing workforce
weighs on growth
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Washington Post, by Jim Tankersley
Original Article
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Posted By: Dreadnought- 4/6/2013 11:28:59 PM
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Put out an all-points bulletin: Millions of Americans have gone missing from the workforce. Every month that those would-be workers are gone raises the odds that they might never come back, dimming the prospects for future economic growth. The vanishing trend is more than a decade old, but it accelerated during the Great Recession. Throughout 2012, economists held out hope that it had stopped. But then came Friday’s jobs report, and hopes were dashed. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. labor force — everyone who has a job or is looking for one — shrank
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The Secrets of Princeton
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New York Times, by Ross Douthat
Original Article
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Posted By: Oblio- 4/7/2013 8:08:09 AM
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Susan Patton, the Princeton alumna who became famous for her letter urging Ivy League women to use their college years to find a mate, has been denounced as a traitor to feminism, to coeducation, to the university ideal. But really she’s something much more interesting: a traitor to her class. Her betrayal consists of being gauche enough to acknowledge publicly a truth that everyone who’s come up through Ivy League culture knows intuitively —
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Broadcasters worry
about ´Zero TV´ homes
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Associated Press, by Ryan Nakashima
Original Article
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Posted By: Ribicon- 4/7/2013 2:43:40 PM
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Los Angeles — Some people have had it with TV. They´ve had enough of the 100-plus channel universe. They don´t like timing their lives around network show schedules. They´re tired of $100-plus monthly bills. A growing number of them have stopped paying for cable and satellite TV service, and don´t even use an antenna to get free signals over the air. (Snip) Last month, the Nielsen Co. started labeling people in this group "Zero TV" households, because they fall outside the traditional definition of a TV home. There are 5 million of these residences in the U.S., up from
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Christians, here´s why we´re
losing our religion
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Fox News, by Craig Groeschel
Original Article
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Posted By: STLstudent- 4/7/2013 5:13:55 PM
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Recent research indicates that the number of people who do not consider themselves a part of an organized religion is steadily on the rise. Interestingly enough, though the number of those religiously unaffiliated is increasing, there is little to no trend in the number of those who express atheist or agnostic beliefs. People aren’t saying they don’t believe in God. They’re saying they don’t believe in religion. They are not rejecting Christ. They are rejecting the church. This begs the question, “Why are we losing our religion?”
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Beyonce, Jay-Z celebrate 5th
anniversary in Havana, Cuba
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Los Angeles Times, by Nardine Saad
Original Article
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Posted By: Fiesta del sol- 4/6/2013 8:20:04 AM
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Beyonce and Jay-Z celebrated their fifth wedding anniversary in Cuba this week. The couple, who married on April 4, 2008, took in the sights of Old Havana, visited a school, dined on a rooftop terrace and strolled the fan-filled streets in their island best.(snip).The power couple declined to answer journalists´ questions about their visit to the island nation, but some outlets are reporting that the moguls are there as tourists, though that would be illegal because of the half-century embargo the U.S. has on the Communist country. However, the Miami Herald said Washington has issued special licenses for
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Thread Closed
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