A Message From Lucianne  







S-G1




























ST-GC


   
 
Home Page | Latest Posts | Links | Must Reads | Update Profile | RSS | Contribute | Register | Rules & FAQs
Privacy Policy | Search | Post | Contact | Logout | Forgot Password | Search Using Google


The Recurring -- and Misleading
-- Focus on Party Identification

Gallup, by Frank Newport, Gallup Editor

Original Article

Posted By:michellewsc2, 9/27/2012 5:36:27 PM

The discussion of the party identification composition of poll samples comes up in every presidential election with which I've been involved. Interested observers often opine that when a given poll shows that Candidate X is ahead, it cannot be correct because there is a higher percentage of voters who identify with Candidate X’s party in the sample than there should be, based on comparison to some previous standard.

Comments:
What do you guys think? Just spin? Trying to save face?

      


Post Reply  

Reply 1 - Posted by: MisterDickens, 9/27/2012 5:40:10 PM     (No. 8894582)

I have never believed Gallup polls. They were near the bottom in accuracy in 2008.

Why would I believe any article written by one of the Gallup spinmeisters to justify their inaccurate polling?

I wouldn't.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 2 - Posted by: 500What, 9/27/2012 5:41:56 PM     (No. 8894588)

Anyone who reads this and can think for themselves will realize that what this guy is saying is not only true but also makes all poles irrelevant. If party affiliation varies so much, it is useless and void to use 2008 party identification to measure ones support in 2012.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment


   

 

R-G1
  
R-VAR_AD


 
Reply 3 - Posted by: tocsin, 9/27/2012 5:42:48 PM     (No. 8894592)

''Figures never lie, but liars often figure''

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 4 - Posted by: Patchy groundfog, 9/27/2012 5:44:26 PM     (No. 8894596)

Poles irrelevant? Then why are the candidates in Cleveland? *rimshot*

This article is Gallup defending Gallup ie protecting their revenue stream. They've already shown themselves to be corrupt and cowardly. Why believe them now?

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 5 - Posted by: michellewsc2, 9/27/2012 5:48:50 PM     (No. 8894604)

#4 - I thought the same thing, but wanted to see what others thought too.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 6 - Posted by: 4Justice, 9/27/2012 5:59:15 PM     (No. 8894618)

Sorry, but the spin made me dizzy. I think this guy is falsely representing what people have been saying about the polls in the first place. He is using totally fales premises. Then he states some obvious facts about polls and questions that COULD be asked (not that were) to qualify party affiliation. Then he finally concludes that the polls are something that they really are not based on the scenario he spun.

Sorry, but as far as I am concerned, all polls are a joke and when someone puts this much into "explaining" his polls, I know that he is doing even more misleading than he claims others did. Someone needs to tel this guy that nobody is claiming to ask people their party affiliation in 2008. That wasn't what the concern was in the first place. The question is how many democrats overall were polled vs. Republicans and Independents. And if you are using skewed numbers like D+7 or more every time, then something isn't right.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 7 - Posted by: 4Justice, 9/27/2012 6:00:53 PM     (No. 8894621)

Oops, I meant "he is using a totally FALSE premise" -- not fales

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


   

 

  


 
Reply 8 - Posted by: amylu, 9/27/2012 6:08:52 PM     (No. 8894634)

The only time I was called in a presidential political poll, I was asked if I had time to answer a few questions. I said "yes". The first question was who would I vote for for president. When I answered, "George Bush", I was told they had enough of that choice, and they wouldn't need to take up any more of my time.

So much for polls -- I don't trust any of them!

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 9 - Posted by: Blackeagle, 9/27/2012 6:12:26 PM     (No. 8894641)

Some polls ask ''who did you vote for in 2008?"

That is often interesting. How many folks have changed sides?

Regardless, only after say the second debate will public opinion finally start to focus on this election.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment


Reply 10 - Posted by: capt scurvey, 9/27/2012 6:12:48 PM     (No. 8894643)

Sounds like CYA to me...

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 11 - Posted by: veritas, 9/27/2012 6:19:04 PM     (No. 8894650)

OP, agreed, this seems more self-serving than a McDonald's [repulsive, usually] soda bar.

I kept asking myself, "Then why do you ask? Why?" And at the end, we get to FTA: "I don’t personally put a great deal of stock in survey-to-survey variations in party identification. All of our weighting focus is on the effort to bring more solid demographic variables into alignment with census figures -- including in recent years cell phone and landline phone use. We don't find that party identification is stable enough to be of much use when it comes to comparing sample-to-sample variations, or sample to exit poll Newport admits it's not much use.

And these guys are touted as the Gold Standard? This is "scientific"?

Waiter? Please get me a break, an extra-large one, if you would. Thanks.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment


Reply 12 - Posted by: BruisedOrange, 9/27/2012 6:21:32 PM     (No. 8894654)

In polling, a sample is a sample. What would skew the sample would be any unaccounted for variables in access or response--i.e., which people answer the phone, which people take the time to respond to questions.

Is it possible that more self-labeled Democrats make up a larger portion of Ohio voters today? Is it possible (or just self-servingly snotty) to wonder if more of the un- & under-employed who are willing to find work have left Ohio for the opportunities "red" states offer? Did they thus leave an increased percentage of those who are attached to the federal or union teat?

Or, is it possible that more conservatives are working several part-time jobs and therefore less willing to give time to the pollsters?

IMHO, Newport is making a sound (if limited) point about polling methodology. There are lots of other ways to end up with a skewed poll.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


   

 

B-G1


 
Reply 13 - Posted by: mamafrog, 9/27/2012 6:25:54 PM     (No. 8894661)

If it were just one poll complaining about the sample might make sense. But it is virtually every poll. Even if you look at the Rasmussen state by state Obama is far ahead.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 14 - Posted by: andyboy, 9/27/2012 8:23:28 PM     (No. 8894834)

#13, Obama and Romney are tied overall in Rasmussen, and if you look at Rasmussen's state by state polls, there are far too many even-up battleground states to declare anyone the winner at this point.

Frank Newport does not explain why Obama is tied with Romney in Rasmussen (the most accurate poll over the past several national elections), but has a big lead in all the polls conducted by left-leaning news organizations and universities. And yet the explanation is obvious -- those organizations are deliberately oversampling Democrats in order to publish news stories that Obama is winning.

D+8? D+11? Surely you jest.

  Click Here if you Like this Comment


Reply 15 - Posted by: beancounter, 9/28/2012 1:25:14 AM     (No. 8895201)

I really doubt that party identification is as fluid as he claims.

What is fluid is turnout. What are the chances that turnout for Obama will be as high as it was in 2008? If the answer is "not likely" then why are polls assuming turnout for Obama even higher than 2008?

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.


Reply 16 - Posted by: jglas, 9/28/2012 12:27:56 PM     (No. 8896146)

If party identification is just a will-of-the-wist, here today gone tomorrow, ephemeral sort of thing, why do you guys weight your poll results with such a dicey statistic as party identification four years ago? Isn't that likely to yield dicey results?

  Click Here if you Like this Comment

   1  person like this.



Post Reply   Close thread 703814




Below, you will find ...

Most Recent Articles posted by "michellewsc2"

and

Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)




Most Recent Articles posted by "michellewsc2"



State ‘concerned’ about St. Lucie
County results in West-Murphy
race, sending staff to assess
Palm Beach Post, by George Bennett    Original Article
Posted By: michellewsc2- 11/13/2012 5:17:38 PM     Post Reply
The Florida Division of Elections is sending three employees to St. Lucie County on Wednesday to try to figure out how 799 votes disappeared in Sunday’s partial recount of the close, nationally watched congressional race between U.S. Rep. Allen West and Democrat Patrick Murphy.
Please post more than one long sentence. Source corrected to site style.

Romney’s Strong Debate
Performance Erases Obama’s Lead
Pew Research Center, by Staff    Original Article
Posted By: michellewsc2- 10/8/2012 5:05:37 PM     Post Reply
Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit. Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama

The Recurring -- and Misleading
-- Focus on Party Identification
Gallup, by Frank Newport, Gallup Editor    Original Article
Posted By: michellewsc2- 9/27/2012 5:36:27 PM     Post Reply
The discussion of the party identification composition of poll samples comes up in every presidential election with which I've been involved. Interested observers often opine that when a given poll shows that Candidate X is ahead, it cannot be correct because there is a higher percentage of voters who identify with Candidate X’s party in the sample than there should be, based on comparison to some previous standard.



Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)



Brendan Eich and the New
American Totalitarian State

72 replie(s)
American Thinker, by Sally Zelikovsky    Original Article
Posted By: magnante- 4/4/2014 6:48:31 AM     Post Reply
Imagine going to work one day only to be, in effect, fired -- not because of anything you did or didn’t do at your job, but because of something you did in your personal life. Something religious. Or maybe, something political.(snip)That’s exactly what happened to Brendan Eich, a highly-respected tech guru in Silicon Valley and co-founder of Mozilla Corporation, after he was appointed CEO in late March. In less than a week, he was forced out of this position for no reason other than that he had a made a $1000 contribution to the Prop 8 initiative in 2008. His

$6 Billion Goes Missing at State Department
52 replie(s)
Fiscal Times, by Brianna Ehley    Original Article
Posted By: happywarrior- 4/4/2014 1:04:42 PM     Post Reply
The State Department has no idea what happened to $6 billion used to pay its contractors. In a special “management alert” made public Thursday, the State Department’s Inspector General Steve Linick warned “significant financial risk and a lack of internal control at the department has led to billions of unaccounted dollars over the last six years. The alert was just the latest example of the federal government’s continued struggle with oversight over its outside contractors. The lack of oversight “exposes the department to significant financial risk,” the auditor said. “It creates conditions conducive to fraud, as corrupt individuals may attempt

   

 



 
Ex-CIA boss Morell gives unorthodox
reasons for omitting key Benghazi details

40 replie(s)
Fox News, by Catherine Herridge    Original Article
Posted By: KarenJ1- 4/3/2014 10:03:11 PM     Post Reply
In his opening statement during highly anticipated testimony Wednesday on Benghazi, former CIA deputy director Michael Morell claimed to be an intelligence professional who was willing to lay out the facts -- no matter how damaging. "I take very seriously the allegations about how the CIA in general and about how I in particular handled the analysis and the talking points," Morell told the House Intelligence Committee, in his first public testimony on the Benghazi attacks. "The ethical code under which intelligence officers carry out their responsibilities calls for total objectivity." But Morell´s own testimony would appear to undercut that

Muslims Object to Easter Eggs
39 replie(s)
Fox News, by Todd Starnes    Original Article
Posted By: LittleHoodedMonk- 4/4/2014 11:34:07 PM     Post Reply
Muslim moms and dads in Dearborn, Mich. are upset after students received flyers promoting an Easter Egg hunt at a local Presbyterian church. The parents say the egg hunt violates the U.S. Constitution. The Muslims told the Detroit Free-Press that they were concerned about the religious implications of Cherry Hill Presbyterian Church’s “Eggstravaganza!” They were also troubled by images of a bunny rabbit. “It really bothered my two kids,” parent Majed Moughni, told the newspaper. “My son was like, ‘Dad, I really don’t feel comfortable getting these flyers, telling me to go to church. I thought churches are not supposed

´The debate over repealing this law is over´: Obama
boasts 7.1 MILLION have signed up to Obamacare
but study shows just 858,000 newly insured*

35 replie(s)
Daily Mail (UK), by DAVID MARTOSKO    Original Article
Posted By: FlyRight- 4/5/2014 7:49:46 AM     Post Reply
A triumphant President Barack Obama declared Tuesday his signature medical insurance overhaul a success, saying it has made America´s health care system ´a lot better´ in a Rose Garden press conference. But buried in the 7.1 million enrollments he announced in a heavily staged appearance is a more unsettling reality. Numbers from a RAND Corporation study that has been kept under wraps suggest that barely 858,000 previously uninsured Americans – nowhere near 7.1 million – have paid for new policies and joined the ranks of the insured by Monday night.

CIA Official Dies in Apparent Suicide
33 replie(s)
Washington Free Beacon, by Bill Gertz    Original Article
Posted By: Pluperfect- 4/5/2014 4:40:54 AM     Post Reply
A senior CIA official has died in an apparent suicide this week from injuries sustained after jumping off a building in northern Virginia, according to sources close to the CIA. CIA spokesman Christopher White confirmed the death and said the incident did not take place at CIA headquarters in McLean, Va. “We can confirm that there was an individual fatally injured at a facility where agency work is done,” White told the Washington Free Beacon. “He was rushed to a local area hospital where he subsequently died. Due to privacy reasons and out of respect for the family, we are not releasing

Romney 2016: Coulter Says Mitt
Strongest on Immigration

32 replie(s)
Breitbart´s Big Journalism, by Jeffrey Poor    Original Article
Posted By: KarenJ1- 4/4/2014 1:02:48 PM     Post Reply
Earlier this week on Boston’s WRKO-AM’s The Howie Carr Show, conservative commentator Ann Coulter shocked some conservatives when she said she is making 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney her favorite for the 2016 Republican contest. Last month in an interview on CBS’s Face the Nation, Romney himself ruled out the possibility of a 2016 run and said he was instead focused on who to get behind in that contest. Coulter, however, wishes otherwise. “Well, don´t tell him but I´m planning on giving Mitt Romney a little more time to rest -- flying out, kidnapping him and depriving him of sleep, food and

Beating of white driver by
angry mob after he accidentally
ran over young boy ruled NOT
a hate crime by Detroit police

31 replie(s)
Daily Mail [UK], by Ryan Gorman    Original Article
Posted By: Ribicon- 4/4/2014 5:01:05 PM     Post Reply
A 54-year-old white man has been left barely clinging to life after he was brutally beaten by a group of black men when he got out of his car to check on a young black boy he accidentally hit. Steve Utash, from suburban Roseville, was beaten into a coma Wednesday by an angry mob in a poverty-stricken Detroit neighborhood after David Harris, 10, ran in front of his truck on a busy street, but police insist the incident was not racially motivated. The gang also stole his wallet before leaving him for dead. Utash is in extremely critical

Networks Refuse Obama Request for
Primetime to Announce Obamacare
Hitting 7 Million Mark

30 replie(s)
Mediaite, by Noah Rothman    Original Article
Posted By: KarenJ1- 4/3/2014 7:04:57 PM     Post Reply
According to a report via BuzzFeed’s Evan McMorris-Santoro, President Barack Obama requested the opportunity to address the nation in prime time on the major broadcast networks on Tuesday night to announce that the Affordable Care Act had reached 7 million enrollees. Those networks did not, however, accommodate the White House’s request. “Three sources familiar with the request confirmed the White House asked for the prime time slot in their effort both to emphasize a bright moment following the challenging roll out and, more important, to try to reintroduce the country to a law that remains unpopular,”

Gov’t Spent $700 Million
Promoting Obamacare

30 replie(s)
Washington Free Beacon [DC], by Elizabeth Harrington    Original Article
Posted By: JoniTx- 4/3/2014 10:38:14 PM     Post Reply
President Barack Obama contended that the government did not “make a hard sell” for Obamacare, despite his administration spending nearly $700 million to promote the law. “We didn’t make a hard sell,” Obama said in the Rose Garden on Tuesday, praising the 7.1 million sign ups for the Affordable Care Act. “We didn’t have billions of dollars of commercials like some critics did.” However, last July the Associated Press reported that Obamacare’s marketing campaign would cost at least $684 million. Taxpayer funding went to all 50 states in efforts to encourage people to enroll, including nearly $28 million for the

Eric Holder defends using Justice
Department airplane for 27 personal trips

30 replie(s)
Washington Examiner (DC), by Joel Gehrke    Original Article
Posted By: JoniTx- 4/4/2014 9:34:34 PM     Post Reply
Attorney General Eric Holder disputed a Government Accountability Office report on his use of Justice Department airplanes for personal trips, saying it overstated the number of trips he took and failed to recognize that some trips were job-related. "My staff keeps telling me to take it easy, you know, well, this is one that gets me," Holder told Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va., during a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing. "There was this notion that we´ve taken -- I think it was described as hundreds of personal trips. That was wrong. GAO counted flights, not round trips. And we looked at it

If You Think YOU Can’t Name A Hillary
Accomplishment, Wait Til You See HER Try

29 replie(s)
Independent Journal Review, by Mike Miller    Original Article
Posted By: StormCnter- 4/5/2014 5:15:26 AM     Post Reply
Following her speech at the “Women of the World Summit” in New York City on Thursday, Hillary Clinton was asked this simple question by a moderator: “When you look at your time as Secretary of State, what are you most proud of? And what do you feel was unfinished, and maybe have another crack at one day?” Here are a few excerpts from her response: ”Look, I really see my role as Secretary, in fact leadership in general in a democracy, as a relay race. When you run the best race you can run, you hand off the baton.” “Some

   

Post Reply   Close thread 703814





Home Page | Latest Posts | Links | Must Reads | Update Profile | RSS | Contribute | Register | Rules & FAQs
Privacy Policy | Search | Post | Contact | Logout | Forgot Password | Search Using Google



© 2014 Lucianne.com Media Inc.

FS