Not long ago, Independents were the go-to demographic for determining who would win elections. How the Independents swung, so too would the election. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Independents in Ohio by 8 points and in Florida by 7 points. (Snip) In both Ohio and Florida, Barack Obama’s “clear leads” all come from heavy over-sampling of Democrats, not from winning the crucial Indie vote. In fact, most of the polls that show Obama with big leads also show Romney handily winning Independent voters. Yet, somehow, Obama manages to increase his performance from 2008 despite Independents now opposing him. Let's take
Comments: Unless every last registered Democrat came out and voted (and then some, with some voting more than once) 0bama could in no way win a state where he loses the Independent vote, often by double digits. With the Ohio Newspaper Organization, clearly not a pro-Republican group, stating Romney leads among Independents there by 28% what gives with the tallying by polling organizations? And it's going to get worse.
This is the single most telling indicator in all the polling internals. The independents are approximately one third of the entire electorate. If Romney has flipped the independent vote from 2008, there is no way Obama can win. None.
They will cheat. The ads they are running show they are trying to fool the public into thinking that Romney is like Obama and vice versa. If that doesn't work they can vote dead people and stuff the ballot box with fake votes.
Obama is going to get >90% of the Democrat vote, Romney is going to get >90% of the Republican vote, and most of the independents (I'm betting >60%) are going to vote for Romney. Whichever side gets a bigger turnout of their base will win the election.
If we had a much better candidate on the top of the ticket, I think we could reasonably have expected a Republican landslide election similar to what occurred in 1980, 1984, 1994, or 2010. As it is, I think the best we can hope for is a repeat of 2004.
All of the MSM polls currently anticipate that the Democrats will have a much better turnout than they did in 2008, which is nothing more than a liberal fantasy.
Does anyone really think that the 400+ members of the JournoList (remember, only about 1/3 of them were identified) stopped communicating and strategizing with each other just because Tucker Carlson exposed the list’s existence? Sure, they temporarily scattered – like a bunch of roaches when a light is turned on. But I have no doubt that they re-formed – just a little further underground this time – and continue to act in lock-step with the White House and Obama campaign to influence (control?, dictate?) the MSM message.
The consistency with which the MSM reports glaringly skewed polls accompanied by “Romney’s Bad Week” and/or “Obama’s Insurmountable Lead” stories leads me to conclude that “stories of JournoList’s demise are greatly exaggerated.”
Truly cunning propagandists recognize and play on fears. In this case they play on Republican/conservative fear generated by Hussein's election in 2008: That a majority of the electorate is now so degraded/ignorant/indifferent that they will vote for such a candidate.
They also play on the fear generated among those on the right by Romney himself: That he is, at best, an untrustworthy RINO who never won a majority of Republican votes in the primaries.
Fear works to paralyze reason and halt action.
The propagandists' constant pumping up of Hussein despite the obvious dismal record he has amassed works, they hope, to increase interest and enthusiasm among his base.
My own take is that this will not work. Romney/Ryan will win comfortably. The GOP will hold and even expand its majority in the House and will take control of the Senate.
If you want to make it to the election with your sanity in place then in the name of all that is good and holy TURN OFF THE NEWS! Yes, EVEN FOX! Do yourselves a favor. When election day rolls around, do your civic duty and get out and get it done!
#17. I disagree strongly that we would do better if we had a better candidate because our candidate is already very very good. John McCain WAS a bad candidate who was a poor student, a poor pilot, a poor husband, and did not have the temperament to be President. McCain would have done MUCH worse if it weren't for Palin and her ability to electrify crowds.
Mitt has been successful in both the public and private sector and gave up a very lucrative business practice to serve his country. He is squeaky clean, a great family man, and has the values, temperament, and skills needed to save us from the current Presidential disaster.
The problem is that Obama is a complete cult of personality figure (and empty suit..)with armor plated skin that liberal white voters do NOT want to see fail. He has so many skeletons in his closet that the MSM ignores because deep down they know he wasn't qualified to be Prez after 140 days in the Senate, no business or econ experience, etc... Just vote the current scam artist out so we can get back to the business that made the US great.
As a former Republican and a fairly new Independent, I can shed some light on this. Being a Rep means nothing in California and I was tired of being ignored. Now I even get polled! Also, I think a lot of Tea Partiers are sick on lifelong politicians on both sides.
There is no way I wold vote for Obummer. There is no way that I will not vote. I am not alone.
When Demonicrats (meant the typo) call me, after I give them the bad news, I put down the phone without hanging up. That prevents them from quickly calling some other victim. I am considering calling them on election day and telling them I need a ride to the polls. When they drop me back at home, I'll tell them I voted for Romney! At least that's my fantasy - but would not want to be physically harmed.
Precisely my point made in L.com's other thread. THe pollster's can spin the figures pretty well depending who they are working for. Normally, the polls (if they are to be believed at all) suddenly become more precise as we get closer to election day. But, this time is different. I think they will over-sample the dim voter because of the large exposure they get when trying to portray jug ears as the won.
We at Townhall have been covering this hotly contested Senate race for months and the results are finally in: With 36 percent of precincts reporting, Elizabeth Warren has been declared the next junior Senator from Massachusetts. Warren has never held public office before and the eye-popping $40 million she raised this election cycle evidently proved more than enough to unseat incumbent Senator Scott Brown. This was the most expensive Senate race of 2012 -- by a long shot.
Former Gov. Angus King, running as an independent, won the Senate contest Tuesday in Maine, NBC News projected, taking a seat that had been held by the Republicans. The loss further complicated the party's drive to take control of the Senate (Snip) Republican Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Paul Sadler to hold the open seat in Texas, succeeding retiring Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison, NBC News projected. See results Democrats held small edges in two of the other states critical to the balance of power in the Senate: In Massachusetts, where Elizabeth Warren, a law professor at Harvard University, was leading Republican
CNN’s Peter Hamby reported that Mitt Romney‘s internal polling showed President Obama leading in Ohio by five percentage points.Per Hamby’s post: The number represented a sharp final bump for Obama in Ohio, a race that had essentially been a tied race through much of the previous week, according to the campaign’s daily tracking. The polling, which also showed a tight race in Pennsylvania, explains why Romney officials decided to send their candidate on last-minute Election Day visits to Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
The Obama and Romney campaigns may be gearing up for a very late night, with one Obama campaign adviser predicting that in Florida alone, "they'll be counting until 2 a.m." The Obama adviser said signs suggest the race is quite tight, though the campaign claimed to be "holding strong" in key battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The adviser also said turnout among black voters in Virginia was better than expected, suggesting that could be a problem for Mitt Romney. Republican operatives in Virginia, though, predicted a razor-thin victory for their candidate in the state.
Washington - Early returns on Tuesday in what is anticipated to be a dead even presidential election contained no surprises, as CNN projected President Barack Obama will win his home state of Illinois and eight other races while Republican challenger Mitt Romney will win nine states. All races called so far went as expected after the roller-coaster ride of an election campaign that was buffeted by a superstorm and missteps on both sides. Obama and Romney ran dead even in final polls that hinted at a result rivaling some of the closest presidential elections in history, reflecting the deep political
A week after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the East Coast, a majority of voters said President Barack Obama’s response to the crisis wasn’t a factor in their vote, according to early exit polls. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed, per CBS News’ early exit polling released by radio station WKZO in Kalamazoo, Mich., said Obama’s handling of the storm was a minor factor in their vote or wasn’t a factor at all. Twenty-six percent named Sandy as an “important” factor, and 15 percent said it was the “most important” factor in their decision.
Mitt Romney is leading among independents in both Ohio and Virginia, early exit polls show. In Ohio, the former Massachusetts governor takes 56 percent of self-identified independents, compared with 40 percent for President Barack Obama. That’s a huge decrease for Obama from 2008, when the exit polls found him winning independents in Ohio by 12 points, 52 percent to 44 percent for John McCain. The numbers are similar but slightly tighter in Virginia: Romney takes 53 percent of independents there, according to ABC News exit polls, a 12-point lead over Obama. In 2008, Obama won independents in the state by
Mitt Romney and President Obama each racked up early and expected victories Tuesday night in relatively safe territory, while some of the biggest battlegrounds that will decide the election remained too close to call. All the big swing states where polls have closed -- Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina -- were too close to call, Fox News projects. (Snip) Obama will also win three of Maine's four electoral votes, Fox News projects. It is unclear where the state's fourth electoral vote will fall. The latest batch of poll closings, and results, has allowed Obama to take
Mitt Romney was projected the winner in South Carolina on Tuesday night, taking home the state’s nine electoral votes. So far Tuesday the former Massachusetts governor has taken other reliably red states including Kentucky and West Virginia. Romney leads in the Electoral College with 24 electoral votes to President Obama’s three.
As expected, the presidential race is tight in Ohio, where the polls just closed: President Obama is winning women 55 percent to 44 percent in the early CBS News exit poll, while Mitt Romney is leading 52 percent to 46 percent among men. Women made up 51 percent of the electorate, compared to 49 percent among women. Thirty-nine percent of voters so far identified themselves as Democrats, compared to 30 percent calling themselves Republican. Thirty-one percent identified as independent or something else, and Romney has a big edge among this group - 56 percent to 40 percent for Mr. Obama.
As expected, Republican candidate for President, Mitt Romney, won West Virginia’s five electoral votes in Tuesday’s General Election over President Barack Obama. National media outlets called the race in West Virginia shortly after polls closed at 7:30 p.m. President Obama’s fate in West Virginia has never been in question, as he garnered just 60 percent of the democratic vote in the May primary. The other 40 percent of that vote went to Texas federal inmate Keith Judd, who was placed on the ballot in West Virginia. President Obama has been hugely unpopular in the Mountain State since he first ran
Early exit polls show Election Day voters are slightly more Republican than in 2008 and broadly concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Six in 10 voters said the economy is their top issue according to the poll, which was released by The Associated Press and conducted on behalf of a consortium of media companies. Less than a quarter of voters said their families were better off than four years ago — a point seized on by many Republicans as the results leaked out.
White House insiders say President Barack Obama is in “a funk” about what he sees as increasing stagnation and failures surrounding his second term and some worry that the President is becoming more distant and distracted. “He’s not the same Obama that came to the Oval Office after the 2008 elections,” a senior White House aided confided to friends in an email recently. “I’m worried.” Chicago Mayor and former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel tells friends that the Presidency has changed his longtime friend Obama and many of those changes are “not good.”
In warning about possible al Qaeda attacks against Americans overseas, U.S. officials may have provided too much detail about intercepted chatter and the source of the information, and that may make it more difficult to get such tips next time, former and current intelligence officials say.On Friday, the U.S. State Department issued a worldwide travel alert for Americans, citing an unspecified al Qaeda threat. The bulletin said that the highest threat levels are the Middle East and North Africa, “and possibly occurring in or emanating from the Arab Peninsula.”
Washington - President Barack Obama´s top national security advisers met at the White House on Saturday to discuss the potential threat of terrorist attacks that caused Washington and its allies to issue travel warnings and close embassies throughout the Middle East. The United States issued a worldwide travel alert on Friday (Snip) Obama is spending the weekend at the Camp David presidential retreat after playing golf earlier on Saturday. His birthday is Sunday. The White House said Obama had received regular briefings about the potential threat and U.S. preparedness measures all week.
Executive Director of Mayors Against Illegal Guns Mark Glaze gave some ambiguous and potentially dangerous self defense advice Friday on “Hardball.” Glaze, speaking in opposition to “Stand Your Ground” laws, said in a circumstance where someone “comes at you” with an axe handle one should attempt to either “talk,” “fight with your fists,” “run away,” or “deescalate the situation,” but not shoot the attacker: MARK GLAZE: Very often somebody will come at you. They might want to have a fistfight. They might come at you with an ax handle. CHRIS MATTHEWS: Would you consider the guy with the ax handle armed or not?
[Video] Rapper Jay Z appearing on HBO´s "Real Time" with Bill Maher says that the black community wants upward economic mobility rather than a stronger police presence. In a conversation with former Congressman Barney Frank about police tactics such as stop-and-frisk, Jay Z suggests the stagnant economy and wealth inequality could cause widespread social unrest: "The real problem is there´s no middle class, right? So the gap between the have and have-nots is getting wider and wider... It´s gonna be a problem that no amount of police can solve, because once you have that sort of oppression
Several skills that every kid once learned in school are going the way of the dodo in a hurry. Diagramming sentences is practically an extinct art, for example. Cursive handwriting and memorized multiplication tables look to be swiftly headed that way. Apparently, the next thing that kids will no longer need to learn is spelling and grammar. Sugata Mitra, a professor of educational technology at Newcastle University in northeast England, announced that traditional language rules are out of fashion, reports the Daily Mail. Kids don’t need to waste time on those things, see. State-of-the-art computers and mobile phones can make
Common sense tells me that cops don´t need a Taser or a shotgun to subdue a 95-year-old man. When John Wrana was a young man, fit and strong and fighting in World War II with the U.S. Army Air Corps, did he ever think he´d end this way? Just a few weeks shy of his 96th birthday, in need of a walker to move about, cops coming through the door of his retirement home with a Taser and a shotgun.
Not only should President Obama cancel a bilateral summit with "schoolyard bully" Russian President Vladimir Putin, Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Sunday on "Face the Nation," but considering the country granted asylum to National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden, U.S. allies should try to move next month´s G-20 gathering from St. Petersburg. "President Putin´s behaving like a schoolyard bully, and in my experience, I´ve learned, unless you stand up to that bully, they ask for more and more and more," Schumer said. "He´s always going out of his way, President Putin is, to seem to poke us in
You don´t have to be gay or even Russian to feel the wrath of the Russian government´s homophobia. You could go to jail if you are "pro-gay," whatever that means. And that´s under just one of a growing number of hate-infused bills becoming law at a time when, as it happens, Russia is preparing to host the world in the next Winter Olympics. The perverse anti-gay legislation is inflaming an atmosphere of persistent intimidation and at times deadly violence against Russian gays and lesbians. The question now is: What should the rest of the world do?
I have a suggestion. How about an exhibit on Tawana Brawley? If the purpose of the new National Museum of African American History and Culture at the Smithsonian is to remember racial controversies, as the proposed Trayvon exhibit seems to confirm, then how about an honest look at the phenomenon of hate crime hoaxes? Particular attention should be paid to the role of the media in both the Trayvon and Tawana materials. Unquestionably, the media stirred up racial animus, and these incidents both contributed to raising racial tensions.
An odd dark vertical line that was observed in the sky over Florida earlier this week has left meteorologists puzzled. The shadowy apparition was spotted and photographed by Mike Weight at Honeymoon Island State Park near Dunedin, Florida, Wednesday. Weight was walking on the beach at around 12.30pm. The day was bright and sunny, but there were thunderheads forming to the east. ‘I was looking North when I observed what looked like a ray of dark light coming down from a small cloud to the surface of the Gulf about a half-mile away,’ the 73-year-old man wrote in an email
Police shot and killed an armed teen in the South Bronx early today after the suspect opened fire and refused to drop his gun, police said. Two rookie cops heard shots fired near East 151st Street and Courtlandt Avenue around 3 a.m. and ran in the direction of fire, police said. The uniformed officers saw Shaaliver Douse, 14, of the South Bronx, chasing another person through the streets, according to cops. Douse, who was arrested in May on attempted murder charges for shooting a 15-year-old, fired at the man running on East 151st Street this morning, police said.