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  Topic: The First Debate Was
Obama’s Best Chance
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The First Debate Was
Obama’s Best Chance

New York Magazine, by Jonathan Chait

Original Article

Posted By:StormCnter, 10/9/2012 6:28:01 AM

In the most immediate way, the current wave of Democratic panic is probably overblown. If you want to understand why Mitt Romney’s current polling bounce is probably not a fundamental reshaping of the race, read Nate Silver and Nate Cohn, but I’ll summarize it for you. Polls have very low response rates. Sometimes short-term events that dominate the news cycle excite partisans and make them more likely to answer pollsters — it happened when Romney picked Paul Ryan — but they don't reflect a deep remaking of the public opinion landscape, which remains fairly settled.

Comments:
Little Jonny Chait joins Andrew Sullivan in the weeping, wailing and rending of garments.

Disregard the required lies about Romney and just enjoy the teardrops.

      


Post Reply  

Reply 1 - Posted by: Spidey, 10/9/2012 7:04:22 AM     (No. 8919603)

It's funny how people love polls they agree with and hate the ones they disagree with.The standard punch line on polling is the closer the election gets,the more accurate polls are because pollsters want to preserve their reputations.

When left wing pollsters show Romney gaining ground,if not taking leads,it sends lefty observers into a frenzy.It was entirely believable when Obama got a 5 point bounce from the convention but there's something wrong with them in Romney's post debate bump.

i think independent voters have changed in their make up. They aren't simply persuadable dolts waiting for the right tag line to sway their vote.They're more engaged this time around and can see Obama's wrong direction he's taking the country in.

the left has to be putting a lot of effort to set Romney up in the 2nd round.Lehrer refused to get into ambush questions,causing leftists to blame him for Obama's failure.

There's more to Obama losing than Obama losing. It'll be a huge black eye for affirmative action,the left adores.There's affirmative action people all through government and the people that work under them are completely dismayed at how incompetent they are. The merit based model is the only one that really works.

The left really wants to defeat Allen West because he's made it on his own merits. They don't want that model penetrating critical mass.
The left decried Jim Crow laws but they actually believe it in practice by saying blacks aren't as superior as whites and need a boost.

Nobody was really sure what Condi Rice stood for before her convention speech and it became a grand slam once she did.She had the same poverty upbringing as millions of other blacks but refused to let it hold her back.

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Reply 2 - Posted by: DaddyO, 10/9/2012 7:26:23 AM     (No. 8919639)

All polls pre-november 6 are either guesswork at best or done for political purposes. The election is not over, Obama has not been defeated. There is a huge amount of work left to be done.

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Reply 3 - Posted by: Liberal like Jefferson, 10/9/2012 7:41:27 AM     (No. 8919664)

I was actually polled last night. I responded that I was a likely voter: 18-29 year old black female Libertarian voting for Romney.

(pssst...the only thing true will be my vote.)

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Reply 4 - Posted by: mainelysane, 10/9/2012 7:42:45 AM     (No. 8919665)

I had a root canal done a few years ago. The same tooth started bothering me again recently. One dentist recommended another root canal. Another dentist told me, the first root canal is the best one. After that, the likelihood of success of a subsequent root canal is extremely low. I had the tooth pulled.

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Reply 5 - Posted by: mainelysane, 10/9/2012 7:44:06 AM     (No. 8919669)

I was polled on Sunday.

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Reply 6 - Posted by: Fiesta del sol, 10/9/2012 8:24:50 AM     (No. 8919750)

I was polled on Sunday. On Sunday, I was a Hispanic female, aged 18-25. Extremely anxious to vote for Romney, even though I'm liberal in all of my other beliefs.

I love how Chait advises not to believe the lying polls that show his guy losing! I need to buy a truckload of popcorn for November 6 viewing. Is it considered rude to eat while libs' heads explode?

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Reply 7 - Posted by: JAN, 10/9/2012 8:49:14 AM     (No. 8919823)

The polsters know your voter registration.

If you lie they don't use your answers.



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Reply 8 - Posted by: swarfer, 10/9/2012 8:55:52 AM     (No. 8919834)

Obama is, was and always will be a worthless politician, no more than a puppet for liberal causes. Of course Mr. Chait cannot accept this fact and tries to convince us that voters don't know "the underlying facts." Liberals and the uninformed are the backbone of the democratic party. Perhaps they don't know the undelying facts and so continue to support him, but voters who do will vote against Obama, in principle, in fact and as a sense of duty to the Nation. Mr. Chait doesn't know anything about politics, but he does know how to spot a loser when he sees one just like everyone else. Voters with no vested interest in the democratic party can see that Obama is nothing more than a celebrity, strutting and preening to the sound of his own voice, putting the Nation in the hands of unelected bureaucrats, third world media and exteme left party offficials. Obama's reign was like a movie advertised endlessly telling us how great it is. When people finally got to see it, it turned out to be a loser. All bad movies end the same, forgotten, ridiculed and loved only by the bizzare hardcore afficianados caught in a time warp of what could have been.

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Reply 9 - Posted by: mabelkitty, 10/9/2012 9:04:46 AM     (No. 8919857)

I said I was a 55 year old white male, member of Teamsters and I was voting for Obama.

Not in this lifetime

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Reply 10 - Posted by: Maybeth, 10/9/2012 9:15:43 AM     (No. 8919901)

Town Hall debates are a joke.
I have little doubt that debate questions are being fed to Obama's team well in advance. I am sure that CNN has already received the invited guest's questions and that Candy, CNN and Obama's planners are picking and choosing .... so that The Won can be prepped in his replies.

In other words, I suspect the audience is being used.

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Reply 11 - Posted by: tatterdemalion, 10/9/2012 9:28:25 AM     (No. 8919927)

Chait - if you are right, and you might be, that our political landscape if fairly settled, then you've just written our epitaph.

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Reply 12 - Posted by: Holeymoses, 10/9/2012 11:01:02 AM     (No. 8920213)

Ah yes, that old adage: you never get a second chance to make a first impression.

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