A presidential reelection campaign needs three key elements: a defense of the incumbent’s record, a successful effort to define the opposition and a compelling vision of a second term. President Obama may well celebrate a second term in Chicago next month, but the conventional wisdom underestimates the difficulty he faces, as his campaign has distinct problems with all three elements. His defense of his record is exceptionally weak, his effort to define Mitt Romney is nearly exhausted, and his vision for the next four years — perhaps the most important — has been largely missing from
Comments: *Geraghty is a contributing editor at the National Review.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
country boy, 10/7/2012 6:57:29 AM (No. 8915369)
NY Daily News is solidly blue collar. Bad news for King Obeyme.
The real problem for a second obama term (highly unlikely now) is that interest rates on the national debt will probably start to go up. I don't think that has been factored in yet to the pain. The past 4 years will seem like a week at Disney World.
Interest rates have not helped with housing around my area of N.Mississippi. And, it has hurt people who depend on their savings not the government for their support. My Mom is 90 and her income dropped 60% due to cd's no interest. I will be sorry for first time home buyers if interest goes up but the whole fed corruption and political manipulation has to stop. Let the chips fall where they may.
I don't underestimate Obama, but recognize that his lack of core knowledge and management/strategic abilities is finally doing him in. This race is far from over, but he won't recover in debate land. He simply lacks the capacity to acknowledge his mistakes and there is really no time left for him to acquire the knowledge necessary to beat Mitt in a debate. It's like he's got finals and he hasn't been to class for four years.
FTA: In February 2009, even most Republicans would probably have predicted that by 2012, the country would be feeling much more prosperous, with much lower unemployment.
Not the Republicans who understood what Obama intended to do. The clues were there before the '08 election. When he told Joe the plumber he wanted to spread the wealth around, people should have realized that prosperity was not Obama's goal.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
Bad Dog, 10/7/2012 7:59:39 AM (No. 8915443)
FTA: Four years ago, Obama expressed great confidence that he would be running amid renewed prosperity; he famously told Matt Lauer, ''One nice thing about the situation I find myself in is that I will be held accountable. You know, I’ve got four years...If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.''
I have wondered about this comment of his to Matt Lauer ever since he made it.
We all know by now that leftists dissemble and are forever trying to redefine our language - what words mean. I could give myriad examples. So let's rethink the meaning of that sentence, ending with 'one-term proposition' perhaps the way HE INTENDED IT.
To us it sounds like, and we interpret it as, 'one term in office' ... no re-election. But that word 'proposition' bothers me.
What if - and I'm a big fan of the 'what if's' in life (you gotta prepare) - what if there's just something else coming down the pike from him/them. A proposition can also mean an idea, a proposal, or even, in lib-speak, a mandate.
My interpretation: If he didn't have the U.S. economy completely trashed in 3 years, then he/they'd have to come up with something else to keep him in place to finish completely destroying this country.
See where I'm going with this? The 'renewed prosperity' part of the first sentence is simply a lie. But then, that word 'renewed' bothers me.....
O the irony! Will Romney be allowed to blame Obama for the mess he inherited where the economy goes over the cliff with the taxes etc going into effect Jan 1 and the currency weakened by four years of printing money and irresponsible spending? My guess Romney will be held responsible within a month!
He's been spun by his handlers all along, i.e. valerie jarret (the Iranian) and SOROS (the slippery).....
I was happy to hear 70 million viewers saw the debate. That means they saw a grown/up, i.e. President Romney debate a "child", obama, and verbally take him to the wood/shed....
I hope californians remember that when they pay $5.00 a gallon for gasoline. Perhaps they're like Illinois. WE are stuck with alllllllll demorats running everything and the only way out is ---------- OUT. Sell and move is the motto of lots of Illinoisans....
Yes, Mitt knows he'll be blamed when things worsen but by then he'll have 1) unleashed the energy sector here 2) which will influence and drop ME oil prices 3) which will unburden much of our domestic cash 4) with a republican congress proceed to de-regulate and free US business 5) who will hire millions 6) bringing in billions of sidelined cash 7) creating millions of new taxpayers 8) whose tax revenues answer one half of our financial problem. The other half ( govt spending ) is the type of problem at which Romney realllllly excels.
Poster #10 is right. Romney will be blamed for everything; the MSM will see to that. Nevertheless, this country has to pull the stops on the boy king. What we will certainly see is if the democrats are willing to let the country collapse or if they will put politics aside and work toward real solutions. We are in need of some serious divine intervention if we think we can turn this thing around. If Romney wins, and I believe he will, this exceptional country will rise from the ashes like a phoenix. With God all things are possible.
Obama's not that into us. Never has been. And he has rejected any strategy based on basic economic principles, not understanding that in some ways they're like forces of nature. You can pretend they don't exist, but that won't stop the tornado from mowing through your home. We didn't build a storm shelter or buy insurance thanks to him. But we can make someone else buy our birth control pills. Yea!
For four years I've heard how the American people were so tired of George Bush and that's why obama easily beat JM. Are we not tired of obama after four years, especially since things are worse than they were when Bush was president all 8 years? obama should be getting beat like he stole something. He lies and people know he's lying. His fan club has to continually make excuses for him and continue to cover for him. He does nothing when our people are attack by terrorist Muslims. He's weak everywhere he turns and yet, he may get re-elected. If that happens, we deserve whatever he gives us. I say we because we're all in this whether we vote for him or not. If he's re-elected, I personally think it will signal God's continued judgment upon us, and if he's not, then I think it will be God's mercy. I may have doubts about Romney but he is the man for the economic mess we are in and obit is clearly in over his head. The choice is clear but if we as a nation choose wrongly, well, we get what we vote for.
Just remember it's really hard to defeat an incumbent - even a really bad one. We all know by now about the 1980 race where Carter had a small lead over Reagan as late as 1 week before the election. Will voters opt for 4 more years of this? Despite Obama's continual non-stop barrage of negative commercials and phony government reports, I think he has run out of steam.
No. 22 has it right. Don't think for one minute that you should stay home and not vote because you think there is no way he can win. If all the ones who think about Obama like I do get out there and vote, we may win but if we get complacent, we are in for a terrible next 4 years and maybe even longer as Obama is thinking like a dictator and that is what he wants. Lets not let him have it........
Just as an observer, I've had the feeling for awhile now, that he's not that enthused about winning, but merely going through the motions. He certainly knows what's coming up on the horizon, and how brutal the next four years are going to be. He figures get out now while his side still thinks he's terrific and let the next guy do the dirty work of cleaning up the economy. There's no doubt, he would rather he playing golf in Hawaii then having to make important decisions about matters he doesn't quite understand.
As did 9, I took this: "there’s going to be a one-term proposition" to mean he proposes to serve one term...extended indefinitely, until a self-engineered emergency could be (HA!) fixed. Nothing he says is the truth; nothing he does is good for America.
I think Obama will try and influence the news of the day to overshadow his past failures. As President he can do that. I expect something to happen before his foreign policy debate to change the conversation.
No. 16 said it best. If he wins, I'm confident Romney has the foresight to put in place whatever measures he has to to get the country working again. The world is watching & waiting for us to LEAD again. When the U.S. makes a start at getting back on track, a lot the world's confidence will come back to us. Nothing will get solved without a U.S. economy that is firing on all cylinders. I would even add - slash the corporate tax rates & watch a lot of business move back to our shores. If little old Agnes knows it, you can be sure that Romney knows it!
I read these articles and I pray this is correct and the vast majority will vote for Romney. Not that I like all of what Romney stands for but he "appears" to be honest and care about others while the President has "proven" to be dishonest. Now I read in the morning paper the President raised $1 billion for the election campaign again! Where is that cash coming from? Not here. In the last cycle Visa and MasterCard had thousands of credit cards issued, by their own admission, and each had a donation of $199 sent to candidate Obama. Why was this never investigated? Corruption Chicago style and "dishonest"!
I hope that our dear departed Aggie57 got to watch that debate from heaven. He once posted here that zippy's fall would be like a crystal wine glass being dropped on a marble floor. That line has stuck with me these four years.
Wine glass, meet floor. Keep watching over us, Aggie!
I go back and forth on the general stupidity of the American public, probably because the margins are so close. Still, I'm beginning to believe/hope that enough people have had their eyes opened by the staggering failure of Fauxbama that there will be a Romney victory. The ever diminishing credibility of the msm helps raise my hopes for our country's salvation as well.
I think that the poll numbers showing the closeness of the election, with the incumbent ahead is based on internal polling data. I think it shows a very depressed base on the D side that is showing a reluctance to show at the polls. They just aren't buying what O is selling but wouldn't cross over, so they will stay at home. The only way to keep it close is to plant a seed of closeness so that R's will think that after everything going on, there may be a reelection, get depressed and stay home as well, giving O a better chance.
Yes, Obozo is falling apart. To those of us that take the time and effort to educate ourselves to what is going on in the country and the world at large, it's very evident. But what really bothers me is the sheer number of Americans who DON'T keep up on all these things. They are just concerned about their own getting by and have no interest in what might be happening elsewhere. And, these people still get to vote. And usually vote for those who promise them the most "stuff" that they don't have to pay for. After all, it will be paid for by taxing "the rich".
Mr 0blamer has proven that he has no clue or desire to improve the economy. As a creature of the entitlement culture who hasbeen given a leg up in every part of his life, he thinks everything is free. He abnd the democrat party fail to see the 2010 election as a complete repudiation of his socialist ideals. So their only election opportunity is to lie and vilify Mr Romney in an attempt to change the subject from a completely failed presidency. Or maybe it is a planned campaign to destroy our economy and our nation to achieve Mr Kruschevs "we will bury you".
In California, I am voting because of Proposition 32. It is a start to limit union power in how union dues will be collected from union members. That's why it's being opposed by the CTA, SEIU and other unions here. I conceded that Romney will lose Ca. I am voting for him anyway as a sort of conscience vote.
If Romney wins the economy will take off almost immediately, don't fear a bad economy being blamed on Romney. The only reason it has been so dismal (other than having a Socialist President) is because of business uncertainty, always the hope that government will be returned to adults and a more favorable business climate. If that happens in November, business will take off very soon afterward. The reverse if Obama is reelected.
@ #36 - I've had that same thought numerous time regarding Aggie57's crystal wine glass meeting marble floor image. I am sure we have missed some of the best comments these last 2-3 years that he would have written were he still alive.
But I don't think the goblet has touched marble yet.
fta - "..a successful effort to define the opposition..."
Bain, tax returns etc. have gained no traction. The laundry list of debate excuses includes something that may -- Romney is a liar. A concept so simple and demagogic that his sad army of fools can grasp it. And by labeling Romney a liar, the false extension Obama doesn't lie.
Should Romney win, as others note, he'll be hated and hamstrung before he sets foot in the White House.
#34, I wondered Obozo's last election where all that small money was coming from since supposedly they came from small donors. Now, he pulls this crap again with the economy worse and people even poorer. MC and VISA should be hauled before congress and find out if these cards were bought individually or if they were bought in bulk. I don't think how big or how small the donation to election, they should all be exposed to the light of day. This is a controlling legal authority! It is called, WE THE PEOPLE!
In Obama's second term, Obama said that he wants to eliminate the "Bush tax cuts" for all taxpayers earning over $250,000 and make the rich "pay a little more". He also said that the he would leave the "Bush tax cuts" in place "next year" for middle class and working class families earning under $250,000.
During the debate Obama acknowledged that "making the rich pay a little more" will never support his government spending objectives or eliminate the deficit. So it is fair to figure that once Obama is safely re-elected, that he will then push for the complete elimination of the "Bush tax cuts" for everyone who pays taxes in the following years. That alone would amount to a big tax increase for the middle class and working class families.
Anyone who has been around for awhile knows that politicians whose mission in life is to raise taxes always start with "the rich paying a little more" and then move on down and attempt to raise taxes on middle class and working class families, as those population groups are where the vast majority of Americans who actually do pay taxes are financially situated, and therefore from where most new tax revenue can be obtained.
Don't underestimate the power of the American Main Stream Media. They will do anything & everything to keep their empty suit in office.
Why? Because he vaguely promises them:
A greener planet while Making oil fuel obsolete; Gay marriage; Bringing all our troops home from the war; Robbing from the (eeeevil) rich to give to the poor; We'll be oh-so-fair to the misunderstood muslims, thus Keeping us out of being attacked by making them like us.
This all makes perfect sense to the Liberal Left. It's suicide for this great nation, but they haven't a clue. Their hearts/hang ups blind them to the truth that there is evil in the world & it's not oil. It's Muslim terrorism, not corporate greed that we must be strong enough to fight.
Several have commented that Romney will inherit an economy that is genuinely worse than that 0bama says he got. I believe that, given his personal record, Governor Romney is looking forward to demonstrating that his 25 years of success have equipped him to correct the situation before 2014. The key, of course, is can he find cooperation "across the aisle"? So- we need voters to pull the party lever, not just the one for president.
#5, you are so right. If Romney wins, the media will blame Romney when the inevitable severe downturn or collapse happens. The bright spot is that Romney will be President, and able to do something, unlike Barry, who will sit sucking his thumb and saying mean things about capitalism.
Keep in mind that the Libs are in defense mode now. They are lowering our expectations for the next debate so much that if 0 manages to string together two coherent sentences in a row they will be yelling "He's back"!
By now they are all yelling at each other for their public reactions to the fiasco and figuring out how to put the clothes back on the phony emperor.
Be afraid. Be very afraid. But above all vote like your life depends on it...
FTA: "Once Romney came across as knowledgeable, clear and deeply concerned about the state of the country, the entire vilification campaign of summer and early fall looked shaky and less convincing." Shaky? Less convincing?
Go ahead and just say it Jim: the vilification campaign has now exposed as patently and ridiculously false, in front of 60 million people. The prospects for Obama to fare better in the next debate are slim to none. The man is a flim-flam artist who has been thoroughly exposed as the fraudster he is. He'll probably get nasty next time, but Mitt will be prepared for that.
Romney even likened Obama to his five sons trying to peddle lies when they were boys! Obama didn't have an answer for that either. How could he have? It's undeniable and clear for all to see. That's why the lefties are melting down - they know it's true and they have nothing meaningful left to say.
#22 is right on. He will be reelected because he has many stupid Americans on his dole i. e. free cell phones. The electorate is generally so stupid that don't even connect the dilemma we are in with Øbama. If it gets close they will cheat. The US is finished.
The Mulatto Kid is the poster child for the three Es: Empty Chair, Empty Suit and Empty Head.
Too bad that the Empty Head also describes the stupid voters who think their free phones, reworked mortgages and part-time jobs are from the same Empty Chair. They have no conception of how government works or they wouldn't vote for the Mulatto Kid again.
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Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve looked at the various polls on Barack Obama’s performance and noted the dramatic decline in approval on both policy areas and personal qualities. Today, the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake and Sean Sullivan take a look at the former, and inform readers that Obama is in much bigger trouble than just dropping below 40% overall approval: Recent polling from the Pew Research Center and Quinnipiac University has shown Obama’s approval rating on almost all major issues plunging into the 30s — below even his lowest-ever overall approval rating, which has stood around 40 percent
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Good stuff from Jonathan Turley at today’s House hearing on executive power, although I regret that I couldn’t find a more user-friendly format for you to watch. There’s no compilation clip; you’ll have to make do with the C-SPAN embed by fast-forwarding to the time cues I give you and being patient while the vid buffers (and buffers, and buffers).(Snip)That brings us to point two: Even if Congress can’t stop Obama, the courts can. The problem there, though, says Turley, is that O and the DOJ have argued successfully in many cases that no one has standing to sue him
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