Not long ago, Independents were the go-to demographic for determining who would win elections. How the Independents swung, so too would the election. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Independents in Ohio by 8 points and in Florida by 7 points. (Snip) In both Ohio and Florida, Barack Obama’s “clear leads” all come from heavy over-sampling of Democrats, not from winning the crucial Indie vote. In fact, most of the polls that show Obama with big leads also show Romney handily winning Independent voters. Yet, somehow, Obama manages to increase his performance from 2008 despite Independents now opposing him. Let's take
Comments: Unless every last registered Democrat came out and voted (and then some, with some voting more than once) 0bama could in no way win a state where he loses the Independent vote, often by double digits. With the Ohio Newspaper Organization, clearly not a pro-Republican group, stating Romney leads among Independents there by 28% what gives with the tallying by polling organizations? And it's going to get worse.
This is the single most telling indicator in all the polling internals. The independents are approximately one third of the entire electorate. If Romney has flipped the independent vote from 2008, there is no way Obama can win. None.
They will cheat. The ads they are running show they are trying to fool the public into thinking that Romney is like Obama and vice versa. If that doesn't work they can vote dead people and stuff the ballot box with fake votes.
Obama is going to get >90% of the Democrat vote, Romney is going to get >90% of the Republican vote, and most of the independents (I'm betting >60%) are going to vote for Romney. Whichever side gets a bigger turnout of their base will win the election.
If we had a much better candidate on the top of the ticket, I think we could reasonably have expected a Republican landslide election similar to what occurred in 1980, 1984, 1994, or 2010. As it is, I think the best we can hope for is a repeat of 2004.
All of the MSM polls currently anticipate that the Democrats will have a much better turnout than they did in 2008, which is nothing more than a liberal fantasy.
Does anyone really think that the 400+ members of the JournoList (remember, only about 1/3 of them were identified) stopped communicating and strategizing with each other just because Tucker Carlson exposed the list’s existence? Sure, they temporarily scattered – like a bunch of roaches when a light is turned on. But I have no doubt that they re-formed – just a little further underground this time – and continue to act in lock-step with the White House and Obama campaign to influence (control?, dictate?) the MSM message.
The consistency with which the MSM reports glaringly skewed polls accompanied by “Romney’s Bad Week” and/or “Obama’s Insurmountable Lead” stories leads me to conclude that “stories of JournoList’s demise are greatly exaggerated.”
Truly cunning propagandists recognize and play on fears. In this case they play on Republican/conservative fear generated by Hussein's election in 2008: That a majority of the electorate is now so degraded/ignorant/indifferent that they will vote for such a candidate.
They also play on the fear generated among those on the right by Romney himself: That he is, at best, an untrustworthy RINO who never won a majority of Republican votes in the primaries.
Fear works to paralyze reason and halt action.
The propagandists' constant pumping up of Hussein despite the obvious dismal record he has amassed works, they hope, to increase interest and enthusiasm among his base.
My own take is that this will not work. Romney/Ryan will win comfortably. The GOP will hold and even expand its majority in the House and will take control of the Senate.
If you want to make it to the election with your sanity in place then in the name of all that is good and holy TURN OFF THE NEWS! Yes, EVEN FOX! Do yourselves a favor. When election day rolls around, do your civic duty and get out and get it done!
#17. I disagree strongly that we would do better if we had a better candidate because our candidate is already very very good. John McCain WAS a bad candidate who was a poor student, a poor pilot, a poor husband, and did not have the temperament to be President. McCain would have done MUCH worse if it weren't for Palin and her ability to electrify crowds.
Mitt has been successful in both the public and private sector and gave up a very lucrative business practice to serve his country. He is squeaky clean, a great family man, and has the values, temperament, and skills needed to save us from the current Presidential disaster.
The problem is that Obama is a complete cult of personality figure (and empty suit..)with armor plated skin that liberal white voters do NOT want to see fail. He has so many skeletons in his closet that the MSM ignores because deep down they know he wasn't qualified to be Prez after 140 days in the Senate, no business or econ experience, etc... Just vote the current scam artist out so we can get back to the business that made the US great.
As a former Republican and a fairly new Independent, I can shed some light on this. Being a Rep means nothing in California and I was tired of being ignored. Now I even get polled! Also, I think a lot of Tea Partiers are sick on lifelong politicians on both sides.
There is no way I wold vote for Obummer. There is no way that I will not vote. I am not alone.
When Demonicrats (meant the typo) call me, after I give them the bad news, I put down the phone without hanging up. That prevents them from quickly calling some other victim. I am considering calling them on election day and telling them I need a ride to the polls. When they drop me back at home, I'll tell them I voted for Romney! At least that's my fantasy - but would not want to be physically harmed.
Precisely my point made in L.com's other thread. THe pollster's can spin the figures pretty well depending who they are working for. Normally, the polls (if they are to be believed at all) suddenly become more precise as we get closer to election day. But, this time is different. I think they will over-sample the dim voter because of the large exposure they get when trying to portray jug ears as the won.
We at Townhall have been covering this hotly contested Senate race for months and the results are finally in: With 36 percent of precincts reporting, Elizabeth Warren has been declared the next junior Senator from Massachusetts. Warren has never held public office before and the eye-popping $40 million she raised this election cycle evidently proved more than enough to unseat incumbent Senator Scott Brown. This was the most expensive Senate race of 2012 -- by a long shot.
Former Gov. Angus King, running as an independent, won the Senate contest Tuesday in Maine, NBC News projected, taking a seat that had been held by the Republicans. The loss further complicated the party's drive to take control of the Senate (Snip) Republican Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Paul Sadler to hold the open seat in Texas, succeeding retiring Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison, NBC News projected. See results Democrats held small edges in two of the other states critical to the balance of power in the Senate: In Massachusetts, where Elizabeth Warren, a law professor at Harvard University, was leading Republican
CNN’s Peter Hamby reported that Mitt Romney‘s internal polling showed President Obama leading in Ohio by five percentage points.Per Hamby’s post: The number represented a sharp final bump for Obama in Ohio, a race that had essentially been a tied race through much of the previous week, according to the campaign’s daily tracking. The polling, which also showed a tight race in Pennsylvania, explains why Romney officials decided to send their candidate on last-minute Election Day visits to Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
The Obama and Romney campaigns may be gearing up for a very late night, with one Obama campaign adviser predicting that in Florida alone, "they'll be counting until 2 a.m." The Obama adviser said signs suggest the race is quite tight, though the campaign claimed to be "holding strong" in key battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The adviser also said turnout among black voters in Virginia was better than expected, suggesting that could be a problem for Mitt Romney. Republican operatives in Virginia, though, predicted a razor-thin victory for their candidate in the state.
Washington - Early returns on Tuesday in what is anticipated to be a dead even presidential election contained no surprises, as CNN projected President Barack Obama will win his home state of Illinois and eight other races while Republican challenger Mitt Romney will win nine states. All races called so far went as expected after the roller-coaster ride of an election campaign that was buffeted by a superstorm and missteps on both sides. Obama and Romney ran dead even in final polls that hinted at a result rivaling some of the closest presidential elections in history, reflecting the deep political
A week after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the East Coast, a majority of voters said President Barack Obama’s response to the crisis wasn’t a factor in their vote, according to early exit polls. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed, per CBS News’ early exit polling released by radio station WKZO in Kalamazoo, Mich., said Obama’s handling of the storm was a minor factor in their vote or wasn’t a factor at all. Twenty-six percent named Sandy as an “important” factor, and 15 percent said it was the “most important” factor in their decision.
Mitt Romney is leading among independents in both Ohio and Virginia, early exit polls show. In Ohio, the former Massachusetts governor takes 56 percent of self-identified independents, compared with 40 percent for President Barack Obama. That’s a huge decrease for Obama from 2008, when the exit polls found him winning independents in Ohio by 12 points, 52 percent to 44 percent for John McCain. The numbers are similar but slightly tighter in Virginia: Romney takes 53 percent of independents there, according to ABC News exit polls, a 12-point lead over Obama. In 2008, Obama won independents in the state by
When I was a kid, I knew two different Santa Clauses. The first had a fat belly, rosy cheeks, a long white beard, and skin as pink as bubble gum. He was omnipresent, visiting my pre-school and the local mall, visible in all of my favorite Christmas specials. Then there was the Santa in my family’s household, in the form of ornaments, cards, and holiday figurines. A near-carbon copy of the first one—big belly, rosy cheeks, long white beard: check, check, check. But his skin was as dark as mine. Seeing two different Santas was bewildering. Eventually I asked my father what
US President Barack Obama may have moved the masses attending Nelson Mandela’s memorial service with his stirring eulogy, but it was his grinning "selfie" with the Danish and British premiers that set social networks abuzz. In a candid moment captured by a photographer, Denmark’s Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt can be seen holding up her smartphone, with Obama lending a helping hand, as they pose for a picture with David Cameron, all three of them smiling broadly in their seats at Soweto’s World Cup stadium.(Snip)Mashable, the news and technology website, ran the photograph under the headline: ‘‘Dear Obama: Funerals are no place
Johannesburg - A man who provided sign language interpretation on stage for Nelson Mandela´s memorial service, attended by scores of heads of state, was a "fake," the national director of the Deaf Federation of South Africa said on Tuesday. Asked about the claim by The Associated Press, South Africa´s government said it was preparing a statement. Three sign language experts said the man was not signing in South African or American sign languages. South African sign language covers all of the country´s 11 official languages, according to the federation. It wasn´t immediately clear if the unidentified man was using a
On his way to the podium at the memorial ceremony for former South African president Nelson Mandela, President Obama walked down the line of dignitaries, greeting other leaders there to pay their respects. Among the hands shaken: that of Cuban leader Raul Castro. Obama neither made a special effort to shake Castro’s hand nor to avoid him. A snub might have been awkward: In his speech, Obama praised Mandela’s “greatest gift” as “his recognition that we are all bound together in ways that can be invisible to the eye; that there is a oneness to humanity; that we achieve ourselves by
The Obama State Department has finally released a second round of photos revealing the harrowing devastation wrought by a terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi on Sept. 11, 2012. The new photographs depict rampant damage to the consulate. They show charred walls, smoldering fires, Arabic graffiti defacing exterior walls, and scattered debris throughout. The extent of the damage would lead any reasonably serious person to conclude that this was a cold, calculated attack, carefully coordinated to mark the 11th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001. Unfortunately for the American people, the Obama-Clinton-Rice cabal that led to the Benghazi cover-up was
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) snapped at conservative groups that have come out in opposition to the budget deal reached Wednesday between Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.). "They´re using the American people for their own purposes. This is ridiculous," Boehner said at a press conference with other members of House Republican leadership on Wednesday. Over the past few days, a number of conservative groups have blasted the deal because it sets discretionary spending levels in the budget higher than previous levels under sequestration. In the past three days, the influential Heritage Action, Club for Growth, Americans
A black fashion student says he was brutally attacked by a gang of Hasidic men who shouted anti-gay slurs at him while he was walking through Williamsburg after a night of partying, the Daily News has learned. Taj Patterson, 22, was headed home to Fort Greene around 4:30 a.m. on Dec. 1 when he says more than a dozen ultra-Orthodox Jewish men began assaulting him on Flushing Ave. and yelling, “Stay down, f----t!”